(25-01-2013, 10:26 PM)safetyfirst Wrote: (25-01-2013, 08:20 PM)revelationofpyramids Wrote: Gfa for shops 108,500 sf n resi 158,480 ie about 40:60 ratio. Read Sumer writing in Ni forum. Can make $$$ because sale price of $3k-4k psf possible for shops, say BT. So profit of $86m upwards.[/align]
honestly, i think 86m of profits is too good to be true although there is still a chance, nothing is certain. However, i think profits should be much lower, otherwise other developers would have bidded a far higher price for such a fat profit margin
simple calculation:
residential portion: GFA: 158,480sf, land cost: $794 (assume equal for both resi n comm; just an accounting thingy), construction plus other costs: $350 psf, sale price: $900 psf, gross loss: $38.7m.
comm portion: NSA: 85,000sf (out of GFA of 108,500sf as stated by HDB website, walkways n toilets n podiums can't be sold), land cost: $794, other costs: $450psf, sale price: $3000psf, gross profit: $149.26m.
Combined gross profit: $149.2m-38.7m = $110.5m. oops, higher than Sumer's estimate.
More bullish estimate:
sale price $1,000psf resi (mixed devpts are hot; The Hillier 99yr also sold at average $1,474psf, so $1,000 psf for this one conservative).
resi loss = $22.8m
sale price $3,500psf for comm
comm profit = $191.7m.
Combine profit = $191.7-22.8 = $169 million...even higher
but of course many things can happen before launch, so i m just doing simple maths here based on everything-being-relatively-stable, if project can be launched tomorrow.
no build in of risks and good news not forseeable yet.
why other developers didn't bid far higher? i think each one has his own risk stomach n expectations of future scenarios, hence they come up with different figures.CES prob more land hungry and also seeing how hot Alexandra was, had a different feel and take of the mkt? far east knows how much it can make based on Hillier, so its bid quite near to CES.
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