Chip Eng Seng

[westin1]

Thanks buddies, but ces seems to be having a yoyo time between 0.97 - 0.98..... wonder when can it break free and head up to at least $1.10.... hmmm...

[RT Knight]

let the market align. no need to worry about the share price, unless you are going to sell soon.

The great thing is that, the TM seem like still in the game. I see the group is willing to resolve the issue with the adjoining owner... "With regards to Tower Melbourne, the Group is still handling the proceedings brought about by the owner of the adjoining building. We intend to resume demolition work in 2015".

Besides, there is also some detail regarding the perth land. In the recent presentation slide, we can see the GFA of the project is about 486,113 sft. Not a small project.

Hopefully, we can have more confirm information from the April AGM regarding these 2 project (TM & West Cost Highway Perth) in Australia.

Start of new levy on foreign investors and tightening of rules on existing owners to be finalised in a months time does not bode well for aussie property market.

There is no way to resolve the TM problem other than to cancel it, which is what the other side is aiming for. trying to sell CUB also signals that approval for further development is likely to be difficult to obtain, given the local minister who approved TM has been ousted in the latest election.

Unlike Sydney/Melbourne markets, Perth property market has been in downturn, tracking the drop in mining investment.

Further catalyst for this stock probably would come from SG side rather than Au side.

Starting of the 5000 or subsequent 10,000 for every million, is not much comparing to the house price. I doubt this will prevent or cool down. Well, this could be the starting of the cool down measure, just like the Singapore did. It will slightly increase, but that take time.

[RT Knight]

Good one blue, hopefully can raise target prices to $1.17 or $1.22 as some forummers calculated...

some of the analyst reports are quite "laughable " as their estimates were so vastly different from the actual results. Hence I just read most of them for my own amusement and for pleasure . Tks

Analyst is just doing their job for exchanging their living.
I have long time never read analyst report but better do it myself. Sometimes, the information I have even faster than the so called "analyst". The worst things I saw is that, some error things being copy in between analyst.

[RT Knight]

i don't how to post the graph here. from the technical point of view, there is a W shape of bottm price at 0.83 (oct14) and 0.84 (Dec14). Then, we have the record high with almost 14X of average volume yesterday. Today's trading volume is still 2x of average volume at this hour. Just need to be patient, will cross $1 soon.

[westin1]

Thanks RT, this forum is really good. Sincere buddies who are willing to share ... clap clap =)

[yewkim]

Yes, no worry, demand is still so so, but hopefully I can see 1.14 first. ChipES is good, but gearing wise is high, but not super high like vallianz. But as again, if they can make good money, I don't see why huge borrowing is an issue at all. Just be patient. I believe we will be rewarded.

[CityFarmer]

i don't how to post the graph here. from the technical point of view, there is a W shape of bottm price at 0.83 (oct14) and 0.84 (Dec14). Then, we have the record high with almost 14X of average volume yesterday. Today's trading volume is still 2x of average volume at this hour. Just need to be patient, will cross $1 soon.

A reminder: No TA related post here, since VB is a value investing forum.

Thank

Regards
Moderator

[BfGf Money Blog]

I am invested in CES for sometime now but after this earnings, the pipleline for 2015 onwards doesn't offer much visibility. The resignation of its Director and its debt are definitely a concern.

BUT - the aggressive sharebuyback of its management could indicate that they are extremely confident about the company's prospects?

I might probably sell half of my stake in CES.

As much as I thank CES for their good returns these few years, I probably won't touch property stocks again!

Wonder why so weak, results so good yet cant fly... thought this is an undervalued gem but sigh... a pity...

This is called priced in, everyone who is buying property stocks will know about CES and TOP of Alexandra. A bumper 44c EPS and only 6c paid out.

Market is forward looking. Besides expectations of earnings is not very clear on the Aussie side. Had TM gone ahead and to complete on time, stock would definitely have moved more.

not forgetting despite the TOPs, CES debt and gearing is still skyhigh. depending on how interest rate trending as per USA FED, this could pose a big risk.

Change of CEO with such good performance is also quite a big thing. Sure the company can give any good sounding excuse they want but could it signify things in the company not so good such that they had to "golden handshake" first?

[Curiousparty]

Does anyone here have any estimates how much EPS and NAV would CES make for FY2015?

Key Profit Items for 2015
1. Divestment of land at Victoria
2. TOP of Alex hotel (revaluation gain) and recurring income
3. CES centre recurring income
3. Junction 9 and 9 Residence - possible to TOP in Q4 2015?
4. the usual construction income
5. Fulcrum TOP?
6. New investment property ~ $150mil

[Curiousparty]

The new Labour Planning Minister seemed to give "fast approval" too

*****
Australian Financial Review
February 13, 2015 Friday
First Edition

Collins Sq tower wins approval

LENGTH: 418 words

Walker Corp has been given the go-ahead for the final of five towers in its $1.8 billion Collins Square development in Melbourne.

Victorian Acting Planning Minister Robin Scott approved the building at 2-12 Batman Hill Drive, Docklands this month. It was the first CBD development approved under the Labor government of Premier Daniel Andrews since winning the November election.

The 27-storey, 111-metre building at the corner of Wurundjeri Way will have a gross floor area of 67,970 square metres. It will be lower than the 39-storey Tower 2, the tallest building in the development, which is under construction by Brookfield Multiplex with an estimated completion date pushed back to 2017 from mid-2016.

"We are delighted to gain approval for the next tower," Walker Corp owner Lang Walker said on Thursday. "The Victorian government is showing strong commitment to the development of the state's economy and property sector, while supporting us in creating one of the largest mixed-use commercial and retail developments ever undertaken in Melbourne's CBD."

While Walker Corp's Tower 5 faced a smooth approval process - it was submitted in September and not opposed by the City of Melbourne - developers are waiting to see what sort of environment Planning Minister Richard Wynne will create when he starts work in the job on Monday, after recovering from surgery following a minor heart attack in December. They also want to see how he tackles the backlog of applications since the previous government went into caretaker mode.

The government has a "big in-tray and no sign yet of what they're going to do", City of Melbourne councillor Stephen Mayne said.

Concerned about a possible tighter regime, some developers have given up on seeking development permits and are trying to sell sites as they are, Cr Mayne said. "That's an indicator of the uncertainty and time delays we're seeing with the change of government."

He cited the example of 383 King Street, an existing B-Grade building over which developer Aspial had made a development application, but had withdrawn it and put it on sale in its current form.

CBRE senior director Mark Wizel, who is selling the building, said withdrawing the application was an "opportunistic response" to rising values in the existing office sector.

But he said uncertainty about Victoria's planning regime could damage its appeal to investors. "Confidence in Melbourne ... is being affected dramatically by the lack of understanding of the government's vision for planning."