23-10-2015, 06:33 AM
Porsche family puts a brake on the Volkswagen overhaul
Robert Gottliebsen
[Image: robert_gottliebsen.png]
Business Spectator Columnist
Melbourne
[b]The strong rally on European sharemarkets last night was the best news the family behind the beleaguered Volkswagen empire has had in months.[/b]
What has made the crisis so dangerous for the VW enterprise is that the listed company not only faces enormous costs and damages, but is really a family firm. And, like many family-controlled companies, it is highly leveraged and carefully structured so the descendants of Ferdinand Porsche, who created the “people’s car” for Adolf Hitler, have effective control of the company.
Despite last night’s lift in the share price, raising whatever capital is required to enable the company to survive is made more difficult because earlier this year the two descendants in key VW control positions, Wolfgang Porsche and Ferdinand Piëch, split over whether the then CEO Martin Winterkorn could be trusted.
Piëch — who wanted Winterkorn removed — should have waited a few months because the emissions crisis has resulted in Winterkorn falling on his sword.
Just what the crisis will cost Volkswagen is impossible to determine but, if the final cost — global fines (including US fines), damages and the costs of repairing the company — came in at around €30 billion, they will have escaped lightly, because it could become a lot greater.
As of June 30, 2015, Volkswagen had shareholder funds of €88.4bn plus €7.5bn in hybrids, a grand total of almost €96bn. That €96bn provides the equity for €374bn in total assets, including almost €150bn in borrowings of which just under half are short term. There is also a €28bn pension liability.
The problem is that of the €374bn in total assets, €60bn is intangible, so, on a tangible asset basis, shareholders equity is reduced to €36bn. On the share market, even after last night’s rise, those shareholder funds are valued at only €55bn or €62bn if you include the hybrid. That’s not a lot of equity to support €150bn in debt given what is ahead.
Although it has time, Volkswagen clearly needs to raise equity but 51 per cent of the stock is owned by a public company half owned by the descendants of Ferdinand Porsche, led by Wolfgang Porsche and Ferdinand Piëch.
Fortunately, that holding company, Porsche Automobil, has no debt but its market capitalisation is only around €13bn, which values the Porsche Automobil shareholding in VW at a substantial discount to the market value. It’s almost certain that substantial additional equity raisings would see the family lose control — something it would be very reluctant to agree to.
The ownership structure is made worse because it has superimposed on it a complex board and management formation which is not well suited to the decisive choices that will be required to tread a path through this crisis.
Unless there is clear leadership and a capital raising, the Porsche family faces a long journey down a dangerous road.
- BUSINESS SPECTATOR
- OCTOBER 23, 2015 9:03AM
Robert Gottliebsen
[Image: robert_gottliebsen.png]
Business Spectator Columnist
Melbourne
[b]The strong rally on European sharemarkets last night was the best news the family behind the beleaguered Volkswagen empire has had in months.[/b]
What has made the crisis so dangerous for the VW enterprise is that the listed company not only faces enormous costs and damages, but is really a family firm. And, like many family-controlled companies, it is highly leveraged and carefully structured so the descendants of Ferdinand Porsche, who created the “people’s car” for Adolf Hitler, have effective control of the company.
Despite last night’s lift in the share price, raising whatever capital is required to enable the company to survive is made more difficult because earlier this year the two descendants in key VW control positions, Wolfgang Porsche and Ferdinand Piëch, split over whether the then CEO Martin Winterkorn could be trusted.
Piëch — who wanted Winterkorn removed — should have waited a few months because the emissions crisis has resulted in Winterkorn falling on his sword.
Just what the crisis will cost Volkswagen is impossible to determine but, if the final cost — global fines (including US fines), damages and the costs of repairing the company — came in at around €30 billion, they will have escaped lightly, because it could become a lot greater.
As of June 30, 2015, Volkswagen had shareholder funds of €88.4bn plus €7.5bn in hybrids, a grand total of almost €96bn. That €96bn provides the equity for €374bn in total assets, including almost €150bn in borrowings of which just under half are short term. There is also a €28bn pension liability.
The problem is that of the €374bn in total assets, €60bn is intangible, so, on a tangible asset basis, shareholders equity is reduced to €36bn. On the share market, even after last night’s rise, those shareholder funds are valued at only €55bn or €62bn if you include the hybrid. That’s not a lot of equity to support €150bn in debt given what is ahead.
Although it has time, Volkswagen clearly needs to raise equity but 51 per cent of the stock is owned by a public company half owned by the descendants of Ferdinand Porsche, led by Wolfgang Porsche and Ferdinand Piëch.
Fortunately, that holding company, Porsche Automobil, has no debt but its market capitalisation is only around €13bn, which values the Porsche Automobil shareholding in VW at a substantial discount to the market value. It’s almost certain that substantial additional equity raisings would see the family lose control — something it would be very reluctant to agree to.
The ownership structure is made worse because it has superimposed on it a complex board and management formation which is not well suited to the decisive choices that will be required to tread a path through this crisis.
Unless there is clear leadership and a capital raising, the Porsche family faces a long journey down a dangerous road.