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Malaysia Economic News
25-11-2016, 02:02 PM,
Post: #41
RE: Msia Economics
(25-11-2016, 12:58 PM)specuvestor Wrote: Next year SGDMYR 3.50 is not impossible...

When the top is crooked... the principle of governance is important.
Yes, it is not impossible and certainly heading in that direction but problem is that it may drag the S$ down with it. Given the amt of trade between Sgp n Msia, the RM is not insignificant in the S$ basket. What's the implication from this? Well for one, inflation will go up and so is interest rate mirroring the US. Suddenly from a deflationary environment we will start to see inflation. Property prices and REITS will be under pressure.... Need to re-look at your portfolio now. The macro fundamentals has turned the corner.  There will be a 6-9 mths lag. The next budget will be interesting n I expect among others, some easing of prop kerbs, pump priming etc

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25-11-2016, 04:03 PM, (This post was last modified: 25-11-2016, 04:35 PM by specuvestor.)
Post: #42
RE: Msia Economics
Malaysia is an enigma where word and actions are diverting. EPF can pay 6.4% interest while KLCI yield is 3%. US$100b reserve yet allow IMDB to default and the first to scare the market 2 weeks ago on offshore MYR convertibility as well as non repatriation of sales. Seems like EPF is big beneficiary of weaker MYR
http://www.pionline.com/article/20160503...nt-program

Yet Malaysia is expanding 4.1% in 2016, probably top quartile performing emerging markets. When I visit Malaysia I feel that Malaysia is inflationary. even though the official numbers say less than 2%. I actually think it is stagflationary.

MYR is no longer a large weight in SGD basket I presume, and I sense CNY has probably the biggest non-USD influence. We have moved from 1:1 MYR 50 years ago to 1:3 now, and I do not sense Malaysia economic growth nor inflation / interest rate policies affecting us as much as say 25 years ago. If Malaysia is really going 4% growth <2% inflation with 3.5% unemployment rate (Economist's dream of NAIRU) then I reckon SGDMYR will go 2.50 next few years or so. Obviously I am skeptical.
Before you speak, listen. Before you write, think. Before you spend, earn. Before you invest, investigate. Before you criticize, wait. Before you pray, forgive. Before you quit, try. Before you retire, save. Before you die, give. –William A. Ward

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26-11-2016, 05:55 PM,
Post: #43
RE: Msia Economics
Hit 3.5, go JB buy UNIQLO And H&M, watch movies, massage and eat seafood.
"... but quitting while you're ahead is not the same as quitting." - Quote from the movie American Gangster

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19-05-2017, 03:00 PM,
Post: #44
RE: Msia Economics
Malaysia's Growth Quickens to Two-Year High, Beating Forecasts

by Pooi Koon Chong  and En Han Choong

Malaysia’s economy grew at the fastest pace in two years last quarter, lifted by an export recovery and stronger private consumption and investment.

Key Points
* Gross domestic product rose 5.6 percent from a year earlier, Bank Negara Malaysia said in a statement Friday. Growth was 4.5 percent in the fourth quarter
* The median estimate of 22 economists surveyed by Bloomberg was 4.8 percent
* Compared with the previous quarter, GDP rose 1.8 percent versus the 1.2 percent economists had forecast

Big Picture

Malaysia’s economy is picking up speed, driven by household spending and a recovery in exports that’s helped by higher oil prices. The central bank forecast growth of as much as 4.8 percent this year from 4.2 percent in 2016.

Bank Negara Malaysia last week kept interest rates unchanged and said the growth momentum will be sustained this year. While there are risks including rapid credit growth among households and companies and rising prices, the ringgit has rebounded and foreigners are returning to the bond market.

More details in https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...-forecasts
Specuvestor: Asset - Business - Structure.

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