Greek Default 2015 Poll

[lilvestor]

Yea Greece is actually more trade and tourism related. Guess what happens to these 2 when the economy goes into chaos

That said I've never seen or read a sovereign country "die" due to debt, not even Germany. Iceland came close.

A default doesn't necessarily mean chaos, Iceland did fine after they defaulted, tourist numbers nearly doubled after the crisis.

Contrary to what most people think, Greece actually has a very competitive services sector, the trade surplus on services exports account for over 10% of Greece's GDP, thats massive by any measure.

Greece should have defaulted 4 years ago, like Iceland, they would be doing fine now.

[BlueKelah]

Yea Greece is actually more trade and tourism related. Guess what happens to these 2 when the economy goes into chaos

That said I've never seen or read a sovereign country "die" due to debt, not even Germany. Iceland came close.

A default doesn't necessarily mean chaos, Iceland did fine after they defaulted, tourist numbers nearly doubled after the crisis.

Contrary to what most people think, Greece actually has a very competitive services sector, the trade surplus on services exports account for over 10% of Greece's GDP, thats massive by any measure.

Greece should have defaulted 4 years ago, like Iceland, they would be doing fine now.

But can the greece people reform their economy like Iceland after default? I dun think so, they are so used to all the pension and welfare payout from their government. Even if they default the government wont be able to print money fast enough to cover for their current spending.

[BlueKelah]

Greek crisis: Default fears hit markets as commissioner fears 'state of emergency' - live updates

[lilvestor]

Yea Greece is actually more trade and tourism related. Guess what happens to these 2 when the economy goes into chaos

That said I've never seen or read a sovereign country "die" due to debt, not even Germany. Iceland came close.

A default doesn't necessarily mean chaos, Iceland did fine after they defaulted, tourist numbers nearly doubled after the crisis.

Contrary to what most people think, Greece actually has a very competitive services sector, the trade surplus on services exports account for over 10% of Greece's GDP, thats massive by any measure.

Greece should have defaulted 4 years ago, like Iceland, they would be doing fine now.

But can the greece people reform their economy like Iceland after default? I dun think so, they are so used to all the pension and welfare payout from their government. Even if they default the government wont be able to print money fast enough to cover for their current spending.

They will adapt or die trying, it will have to work some way. Greece was doing well before they joined the euro, no reason why they wouldn't do well if they left it.

http://www.firstrebuttal.com/2015/01/25/...otherwise/

[sgd]

Yes no country has ever died due to debt. If they were embargo instead then it's different story but no country has ever been embargo because they defaulted on their debt.

Why I think greece external trade could improve if you look at business in euro zone today they are not doing exceptionally well themselves so if greek drachma tanked it's a good opportunity for businesses to operate in a low cost environment - cost savings. Big american companies are doing just that past few years since these troubles started they been making inroads into greece.

a default in greece is a lenders problem but it's business as usual life goes on.

https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/grc/

[CCUV]

A Grexit is likely to cause euro to spike as Grexit is seen as an improvement of euro land's budgetary and finance. A big spike in Euro will cause euro land to go back into recession as export and tourism will be hit. Against conventional wisdom,i do think the German will want to keep Greece in euro land so as to weaken the euro dollars for the benefit of German export and employment. A weak euro is a "bigger plus" for Germany than any other European countries. A big spike in Euro will also put pressure on the stock market.

[sgd]

Why singaporeans still go to thailand despite several coups, martial law, occupy airport, occupy cbd there's so much troubles in thailand the answer is because it's cheap our currency to theirs 1:24 sometimes 1:26 even, troubles bring opportunities beings humans as we are, we are always on the lookout for cheap opportunities to max our dollars. What's disadvantage for somebody is advantage for somebody else.

Initially tourism numbers in thailand dropped but later people realized it's really not that bad and the shopping restaurants clubbing just got even cheaper so went back to thailand in droves.

I think Greece will be the same if drachma tanked against the euro a lot of europeans will flock to greece for mediterranean partying clubbing holidays on the cheap.

http://www.tripadvisor.com.sg/ShowTopic-...reece.html

[GFG]

Yea Greece is actually more trade and tourism related. Guess what happens to these 2 when the economy goes into chaos

That said I've never seen or read a sovereign country "die" due to debt, not even Germany. Iceland came close.

A default doesn't necessarily mean chaos, Iceland did fine after they defaulted, tourist numbers nearly doubled after the crisis.

Contrary to what most people think, Greece actually has a very competitive services sector, the trade surplus on services exports account for over 10% of Greece's GDP, thats massive by any measure.

Greece should have defaulted 4 years ago, like Iceland, they would be doing fine now.

Oh it was chaos alright, for a few yrs after they defaulted.
Iceland underwent a severe economic depression between 2008-2010. 3 yrs of suffering, during which market cap of the Icelandic stock exchange fell by >90%. (!!!)
GDP dropped by 10%
Of course now they're on the mend and doing well.
that's the effect of default, u start afresh. But you've to go through some years of hell first.
Greece would go through arguably even darker days, and for a longer period too, because
1) Iceland wasn't part of and didn't get kicked out of Eurozone. Greece will be kicked out and the other finance ministers would almost be happy to do so!
2) Greece has to revert to the drachma. Icelandic kroon dropped severely too, but its different from having to abandon another currency and start printing yours again
3) Iceland had loans from the IMF after their default, to help them stabilise and support the value of the krono.
Greece.... nobody's going to support any drachma.

Sure, they'll be ok after several years.
But before that......
and the Greeks know it too. That's why they simply do not want to leave or get kicked out.
They just want their cake and eat it too. Oh, and they also want the German's cake and eat that too.

[GFG]

Yea Greece is actually more trade and tourism related. Guess what happens to these 2 when the economy goes into chaos

That said I've never seen or read a sovereign country "die" due to debt, not even Germany. Iceland came close.

A default doesn't necessarily mean chaos, Iceland did fine after they defaulted, tourist numbers nearly doubled after the crisis.

Contrary to what most people think, Greece actually has a very competitive services sector, the trade surplus on services exports account for over 10% of Greece's GDP, thats massive by any measure.

Greece should have defaulted 4 years ago, like Iceland, they would be doing fine now.

Oh it was chaos alright, for a few yrs after they defaulted.
Iceland underwent a severe economic depression between 2008-2010. 3 yrs of suffering, during which market cap of the Icelandic stock exchange fell by >90%. (!!!)
GDP dropped by 10%
Of course now they're on the mend and doing well.
that's the effect of default, u start afresh. But you've to go through some years of hell first.
Greece would go through arguably even darker days, and for a longer period too, because
1) Iceland wasn't part of and didn't get kicked out of Eurozone. Greece will be kicked out and the other finance ministers would almost be happy to do so!
2) Greece has to revert to the drachma. Icelandic kroon dropped severely too, but its different from having to abandon another currency and start printing yours again
3) Iceland had loans from the IMF after their default, to help them stabilise and support the value of the krono.
Greece.... nobody's going to support any drachma.

Sure, they'll be ok after several years.
But before that......
and the Greeks know it too. That's why they simply do not want to leave or get kicked out.
They just want their cake and eat it too. Oh, and they also want the German's cake and eat that too.

[specuvestor]

^^agree with GFG observation of Iceland case study and the difference in currency regime. In fact Iceland now is still facing strikes from disgruntled workers

A Grexit is likely to cause euro to spike as Grexit is seen as an improvement of euro land's budgetary and finance. A big spike in Euro will cause euro land to go back into recession as export and tourism will be hit. Against conventional wisdom,i do think the German will want to keep Greece in euro land so as to weaken the euro dollars for the benefit of German export and employment. A weak euro is a "bigger plus" for Germany than any other European countries. A big spike in Euro will also put pressure on the stock market.

Firstly greece is too small to have a budgetary impact on the Eurozone with a size of us$12tr economy. The main impact of Greece is policy precedents. How they handle greece will be the blueprint of how they handle breakaways. If they dont do it properly they only have to look at the old Soviet Union.

German people generally are not in favor of subsidising nations that they believe rightly or wrongly as not helping themselves, all the more when Greece entered Eurozone on a fraud. Their hawkish central bank culture is what kept the deutsche mark and subsequently euro strong. They have a strong disciplined culture of innovation and progress that is not reliant on currencies. Politically they are not too keen to keep Greece in Eurozone but the german leaders including Merkel knows the bigger implication.