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As a direct comparison, we can take a good look into rival Innovalues' just released FY15 (ended 31Dec15) AR.....
http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/INNOVALU...eID=396295
As at 31Dec15, Innovates had 325.243m outstanding issued shares (vs. Spindex's only 115.365m outstanding issued shares) and 8.98m outstanding employee share options (vs. none for Spindex), and a NAV/share of $0.2534 (vs. Spindex's $0.752).
Based on its last done share price of $0.90 - equivalent to 355%! of its corresponding NAV/share at $0.2534 (as at 31Dec15) - Innovalues' market cap now stands at $292.7m. Based on its last done share price of $0.75 - equivalent to 99.7% of its corresponding NAV/share of $0.752 (as at 31Dec15) - Spindex's market cap now stands at only $86.5m! Just based on the above market cap comparison alone, we can draw a simple conclusion: As the possibly more conservatively managed company between the 2, Spindex appears to be still grossly under-priced by Mr Market and vs. Innovalues.
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(01-04-2016, 08:34 AM)dydx Wrote: As a direct comparison, we can take a good look into rival Innovalues' just released FY15 (ended 31Dec15) AR.....
http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/INNOVALU...eID=396295
As at 31Dec15, Innovates had 325.243m outstanding issued shares (vs. Spindex's only 115.365m outstanding issued shares) and 8.98m outstanding employee share options (vs. none for Spindex), and a NAV/share of $0.2534 (vs. Spindex's $0.752).
Based on its last done share price of $0.90 - equivalent to 355%! of its corresponding NAV/share at $0.2534 (as at 31Dec15) - Innovalues' market cap now stands at $292.7m. Based on its last done share price of $0.75 - equivalent to 99.7% of its corresponding NAV/share of $0.752 (as at 31Dec15) - Spindex's market cap now stands at only $86.5m! Just based on the above market cap comparison alone, we can draw a simple conclusion: As the possibly more conservatively managed company between the 2, Spindex appears to be still grossly under-priced by Mr Market and vs. Innovalues.
the operative word being "appears".
there is no point comparing to innovalues at all despite their similar products.
1) Spindex has limited number if shares for "playing" in public domain. Look at the sell queue, long term holders are not interested to sell much even now at NAV. Innovalues has so much more shares and at a lower value, easier for "playing". Try loading up a few hundred lots, not that easy.
2) The current share price appreciation is also due to this low volume. As not many people are selling, share price will easily shoot up and down with few lots traded.
3) Which means any analyst or trading house or fund who wants to load up on Spindex before pushing with their catalystic reports will have a VERY VERY hard time accumulating and likely will not be bothered.
Risk
1) Yield has been compressed below 4% now
2) US auto segment which has been the main contributor to profits, especially with low oil price stimulating this sector should continue to do well in the short term next couple years but what happens when oil goes back up, or when the auto market switches to Tesla and EVs? I reckon the auto sector in US is at its peak now, so risk of downturn is higher then upturn.
Only in the unlikely event Spindex gets featured on share websites like NextInsight and starts getting coverage from brokerage houses will its share price have any chance to reach anywhere near Innovalues valuation. Or the other unlikely event that it gets contract to manufacture parts for Tesla.
-v-
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CIMB released a non-rated research note previously and DBS today also issued its Equity Explorer research report, with a TP of S$0.99.
key highlights:
1) machinery & automotive and consumer segments to drive growth
2) steady growth (8yr CAGR of 13% on pretax profit), strong net cash position (S$22m)
3) steep discount in valuation compared to Innovalues (trading at 6x FY16 PE) vs industry's average of 13x, Innovalues' 12x
4) ability to generate strong positive operating cash flow over the last 3-4 years (1HFY16: S$8.8m vs FY15 S$12.8m)
5) EV/EBITDA of just 2.3 (PE buy-out target)
seems to be gaining traction among the sell and buy-side analysts.
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Archrival Innovalues has confirmed that the company and its business are for sale and has appointed Rippledot Capital Advisers as facilitator.....
http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/Innovalu...eID=411293
Based on its last done share price of $1.065 and the 325.243m outstanding (as at 31Mar16) issued shares, Innovalues now has a rather high market cap of $346.4m, bearing in mind in the latest full-year FY15 (ended 31Dec15) revenue at $113.7m was relatively flat, and the higher NP at $23.0m included a $4.5m forex gain.....
http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/Innovalu...eID=390003
At $1.065, Mr Market is now attaching to Innovates a historical PER of 15.2x (based on FY15's fully diluted EPS of $0.0702), and a price-to-bookvalue of 4.06x (based on the latest 31Mar16 NAV/share of $0.2623).
For Spindex, based on the last done share price of $0.80 and the 115.365m outstanding issued shares, Mr Market is now attaching to it a market cap of only $92.3m, bearing in mind 1H (ended 31Dec15) revenue was higher (+13.7% YoY) at $61.2m, and NP was also higher (+26.7% YoY) at $7.5m.....
http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/SpindexI...eID=388214
At $0.80, Mr Market is now attaching to Spindex a PER of 6.16x based on a projected current-year EPS of $0.1298 (2 x 1H's $$0.0649), and a price-to-bookvalue of 1.06x (based on the latest 31Dec15 NAV/share of $0.752).
Based on the above, it is quite obvious that Spindex remains grossly under-priced!
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Good results abt to be released?
Last year was announced 26 Aug.
Already share price up last 2 days albeit on low volumes.
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(04-07-2016, 11:12 AM)dydx Wrote: Archrival Innovalues has confirmed that the company and its business are for sale and has appointed Rippledot Capital Advisers as facilitator.....
http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/Innovalu...eID=411293
Based on its last done share price of $1.065 and the 325.243m outstanding (as at 31Mar16) issued shares, Innovalues now has a rather high market cap of $346.4m, bearing in mind in the latest full-year FY15 (ended 31Dec15) revenue at $113.7m was relatively flat, and the higher NP at $23.0m included a $4.5m forex gain.....
http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/Innovalu...eID=390003
At $1.065, Mr Market is now attaching to Innovates a historical PER of 15.2x (based on FY15's fully diluted EPS of $0.0702), and a price-to-bookvalue of 4.06x (based on the latest 31Mar16 NAV/share of $0.2623).
For Spindex, based on the last done share price of $0.80 and the 115.365m outstanding issued shares, Mr Market is now attaching to it a market cap of only $92.3m, bearing in mind 1H (ended 31Dec15) revenue was higher (+13.7% YoY) at $61.2m, and NP was also higher (+26.7% YoY) at $7.5m.....
http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/SpindexI...eID=388214
At $0.80, Mr Market is now attaching to Spindex a PER of 6.16x based on a projected current-year EPS of $0.1298 (2 x 1H's $$0.0649), and a price-to-bookvalue of 1.06x (based on the latest 31Dec15 NAV/share of $0.752).
Based on the above, it is quite obvious that Spindex remains grossly under-priced!
As a follow-up comparison, based on today's (24Aug16) closing share price of $0.885, Spindex's market cap now stands at $102.1m. As for Innovalues, based on today's closing share price of $0.925, market cap now stands at $300.8m.
The market valuation gap between these 2 similar counters - in business type and scale - remains too significant, and I cannot reason why.
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(24-08-2016, 08:06 PM)dydx Wrote: (04-07-2016, 11:12 AM)dydx Wrote: Archrival Innovalues has confirmed that the company and its business are for sale and has appointed Rippledot Capital Advisers as facilitator.....
http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/Innovalu...eID=411293
Based on its last done share price of $1.065 and the 325.243m outstanding (as at 31Mar16) issued shares, Innovalues now has a rather high market cap of $346.4m, bearing in mind in the latest full-year FY15 (ended 31Dec15) revenue at $113.7m was relatively flat, and the higher NP at $23.0m included a $4.5m forex gain.....
http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/Innovalu...eID=390003
At $1.065, Mr Market is now attaching to Innovates a historical PER of 15.2x (based on FY15's fully diluted EPS of $0.0702), and a price-to-bookvalue of 4.06x (based on the latest 31Mar16 NAV/share of $0.2623).
For Spindex, based on the last done share price of $0.80 and the 115.365m outstanding issued shares, Mr Market is now attaching to it a market cap of only $92.3m, bearing in mind 1H (ended 31Dec15) revenue was higher (+13.7% YoY) at $61.2m, and NP was also higher (+26.7% YoY) at $7.5m.....
http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/SpindexI...eID=388214
At $0.80, Mr Market is now attaching to Spindex a PER of 6.16x based on a projected current-year EPS of $0.1298 (2 x 1H's $$0.0649), and a price-to-bookvalue of 1.06x (based on the latest 31Dec15 NAV/share of $0.752).
Based on the above, it is quite obvious that Spindex remains grossly under-priced!
As a follow-up comparison, based on today's (24Aug16) closing share price of $0.885, Spindex's market cap now stands at $102.1m. As for Innovalues, based on today's closing share price of $0.925, market cap now stands at $300.8m.
The market valuation gap between these 2 similar counters - in business type and scale - remains too significant, and I cannot reason why.
Simple reason, Spindex no analyst coverage so no one play it up. Innovalues so much coverage and reporting with target price some more, all the brokers and their clients will be recommended to be buying Innovalues. Spindex this week for some reason have a bit of action but I expect it will drop back below 80c again until the full year result and div announcement.
http://www.nextinsight.net/index.php/sto...15-maybank
Just wait till those analyst goreng Spindex loh, you will see them publish article in nextinsight left and right...
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Spindex's share price has fallen $0.125, or 14.3%, this morning to $0.75, following the release of the FY16 (ended 30Jun16) full-year result last Friday's (26Aug16) evening.....
http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/SpindexI...eID=419094
When we compare the full-year result with the 1H (ended 31Dec15) result....
http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/SpindexI...eID=388214
, it is evident that in 2H, Spindex recorded a lower PBT of only $3.96m (vs. a much higher PBT of $9.08m recorded in 1H), after accounting for the following 2 significant expense items -
(1) a $1.5m provision - apparently an one-off item - for restructuring cost primarily associated with the closure of Singapore operation (likely motivated by cost rationalisation and strategic considerations for the entire group); and
(2) a $1.23m net forex loss in 2H (vs. a $1.552m net forex gain recorded in 1H), resulting in a much smaller net forex gain of $0.322m for entire FY16 (vs. a much higher net forex gain of $1.927m recorded in FY15).
For a more accurate comparison of the actual operating profitability and business performance of 1H vs. 2H in FY16, we should exclude the $1.552m forex gain in the 1H, and the $1.23m forex loss and the $1.5m provision in the 2H. We would then arrive at an adjusted PBT of $7.53m for 1H, and an adjusted PBT of $6.69m for 2H - not that bad a performance I thought!
I look forward to having the still acceptable $0.023/share final dividend (vs. $0.028/share in FY15), which will be paid on 16Nov16.
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29-08-2016, 01:14 PM
(This post was last modified: 29-08-2016, 01:17 PM by BlueKelah.)
Despite cheap oil it ooks like automotive boom is over in USA. Must be either economy bad or everyone now holding back purchase to wait for electric car.
If the new Electric car can detect Pokemon for u to catch sure sell like hotcakes. Will be collecting again when it go back to 40c, hopefully mgt has plans to switch to making precision parts for electric vehicles, if there is even such a thinf
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Trading of Spindex is halted pending the release of an announcement....
http://infopub.sgx.com/Apps?A=COW_CorpAn...c4faa94865
A positive corporate action coming?
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