New Toyo

[Stockerman]

5% drop today. Going to be under 30 cents soon...speculative air bursting....haha

[cif5000]

5% drop today. Going to be under 30 cents soon...speculative air bursting....haha

Congrats to your prediction...and also congrats becos you can now accumulate more/cheaper. Afterall you only had 700lots, quite difficult to buy this stock unless got dumping. Eh...today STI up or down?

Keep up your good work, ok?

[Stockerman]

More Bad News for New Toyo/Tien Wah

Once the plant at the Phillipines is up, BAT plant at Malaysia will have less volume, which also means less volume for Tien Wah(New Toyo)'s printing/packagaing plant in Malaysia.
In BAT's own words, "the planned Philippine factory can complement and may even compete with BAT’s manufacturing plant in Malaysia."



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http://www.rappler.com/business/industri...lans-in-ph

MANILA, Philippines - Cigarette-maker British American Tobacco (BAT) is planning to put up its own factory in the Philippines either in 2014 or 2015, its top official said.

BAT Philippines general manager James Lafferty said the planned factory is in addition to the company's $200 million investment it committed when it was pushing for the passage of the sin tax reform law.

"We will need a factory here at some point. We're still studying the factory but it will be on top of the $200 million (investment)," he said in an interview.

He said the company is studying options where to put up the factory and what business operations will be pursued.

“There’s no location yet,” he said, adding the options for the factory may include acquiring an existing one in the market, putting up a distribution site, or a major manufacturing factory.

He said the planned Philippine factory can complement and may even compete with BAT’s manufacturing plant in Malaysia.

The $200 million investment commitment, on the other hand, comprises the company’s 5-year investment plan, with the initial $50 million to be spent in beefing up product distribution and employing additional people by end-2013.

He said that since the implementation of the excise tax reform law in January, the new players in the industry, including BAT and Japan Tobacco Inc., have strengthened their presence and introduced new brands.

“This is the beauty of free market,” he said.

The company is expecting stronger sales performance this year after failing to meet its 150 million cigarette sticks sales in 2012 since it was focused on the development of the then sin tax bill, according to Lafferty.

BAT is the maker of Lucky Strike brand and about 300 more cigarette brands worldwide.

Deadly sin tax?

Robert Eugenio, BAT Philippines head of corporate and regulatory affairs, meanwhile, debunked earlier claims that the sin tax law would kill the business of tobacco farmers.

“If they say we killed the tobacco industry, they should go to the north and look at how they are performing. They’re (the critics) wrong on everything,” he said.

President Aquino signed in December 2012 Republic Act No. 10351 or An Act Restructuring the Excise Tax on Alcohol and Tobacco, prescribing higher tax rates on tobacco and alcohol products.

The law took effect on January 1, 2013. - Rappler.com

[potatolover]

Spain's number one cigarette company Altadis, the producer of renowned cigarette brands Gauloises, Nobel and Fortuna, announced on Wednesday it will axe nearly 10 percent of its staff in Spain as cigarette sales slump in the face of no-smoking bans and a booming black market in the country.

http://www.thelocal.es/20130605/spains-t...p-in-smoke


Future prospect of tobacco company does not look promising, especially in EU....

it is not true that tobacco is more resilient to economic recession.. Just look at what happened to No 1 tobacco company in Spain !

[Curiousparty]

Growing E-Cigarette Sales Starting to Affect Tobacco Industry Profits

http://vaperanks.com/growing-e-cigarette...y-profits/

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According to a recent survey conducted by American bank Wells Fargo the accelerated decline of tobacco cigarette sales in the first quarter of 2013 might have been caused by the exponential growth of the electronic cigarettes market, among other factors.

Cigarette sales have been steadily declining for some time now, but Wells Fargo predicts the sales volume in the first quarter of 2013 might be down 4.5% compared to the same period of last year, historic average of 3-4%. While this may be due to a series of economic factors, like higher cigarette taxes, increased gas prices and the payroll tax increase, the bank believes the downward trend could have also been influenced by the growing popularity of e-cigarettes. Considered just another novelty item until a few years ago, the electronic cigarette has come a long way since then, and analysts have gone as far as to predict that it might actually surpass traditional cigarettes within the next decade. It’s a bold statement, considering electronic cigarette sales account for less than one percent of the $80 billion cigarette industry, but it says a lot about this small segment that no one took seriously until recently.


Thanks to more aggressive advertisement and better distribution, the electronic cigarette industry has really become a competitor for the tobacco business, and could reach $1 billion in sales in 2013, more than double the $300 – $500 million registered in 2012. According to the Wells Fargo research, 100% of the surveyed tobacco resalers and wholesalers, representing over 45,000 U.S. convenience stores, are now selling electronic cigarettes, and 98% of them reported growing sales in the first quarter of this year by an average of 30%. A particularly interesting find of the bank’s survey is that repeat sales are now outnumbering trial purchases, which suggests e-cigarette companies are winning over users from Big Tobacco, and actually affecting their profits.

Regarding tobacco companies’ involvement in the growing electronic cigarette market, Wells Fargo survey respondents predict Philip Morris USA will enter the e-cigarette business in late 2013 or early 2014, while Altria will wait until the FDA rules on the future of electronic cigarettes before venturing into this profitable sector, probably through a combination with NJOY. The third US tobacco giant, RJ Reynolds has launched its own range of smokeless cigarettes, the Vuse, although it’s still in a very limited test market. Retailers expect the company to begin a broader expansion at some point in the near future.

Although the exponential growth of electronic cigarette sales is unquestionable, as evidenced by the graph released by Wells Fargo based on the numbers of Q4 2012 and Q1 2013, the long-term prospects of this successful market depend a lot on the soon-to-be-announced decision of the FDA regarding regulations. Government regulators are skeptical of e-cigarettes, health lobbyists have been speculating about the potential dangers of using a yet thoroughly untested product, and the tobacco and pharmaceutical industries are certainly not going to stand by and see their margins threatened. The future looked pretty grim for e-cigs, but growing profits have given big players like NJOY the chance to get into the lobbying game and protect their interests on Capitol Hill. According to records file with the US Senate the electronic cigarette company has hired a team of congressional staffers-turned-lobbyists to lobby Congress and the Food and Drug Administration on its behalf. NJOY’s decision to hire Beltway insiders — and place former Surgeon General Richard Carmona on its board are clear indicators that the e-cigarette industry isn’t planning to go down without a fight.

[Stockerman]

The impact of e-cigarette on traditional tobacco might be MUCH BIGGER than expected. It has been pointed out by citibank that e-cigarette is one of the paradigm-shifting technologies...bad news for traditional tobacco printers like Tien Wah/New Toyo...

[pianist]

dunno if their oem production line can be tilted to cater for non-smoking products?

[Underdogger]

yes, Tien Wah also prints for FMCP but the proportion of revenue is rather small.

From Tien Wah 2012 AR (page 33)
tobacco product printing = 352.83 mil (RM)
non-tobacco printing = 55.25 mil (RM).

Hence, proportion of FMCP = 13.5%.

Chairman explained that as part of Tien Wah's long term supply agreement with BAT, Tien Wah is required to maintain a buffer capacity of 30%.
Not sure what does this imply?

dunno if their oem production line can be tilted to cater for non-smoking products?

[pianist]

yes, Tien Wah also prints for FMCP but the proportion of revenue is rather small.

From Tien Wah 2012 AR (page 33)
tobacco product printing = 352.83 mil (RM)
non-tobacco printing = 55.25 mil (RM).

Hence, proportion of FMCP = 13.5%.

Chairman explained that as part of Tien Wah's long term supply agreement with BAT, Tien Wah is required to maintain a buffer capacity of 30%.
Not sure what does this imply?

it means max operating capacity must be less than 70% of the production max capacity..

[Curiousparty]

i think the implication is Tien Wah is kind of being forced to deliever to meet BATs demand at great costs...
30% of its installed capacity is on standby idling most of the time.

Can Tien Wah use this spare capacity for other uses ?

yes, Tien Wah also prints for FMCP but the proportion of revenue is rather small.

From Tien Wah 2012 AR (page 33)
tobacco product printing = 352.83 mil (RM)
non-tobacco printing = 55.25 mil (RM).

Hence, proportion of FMCP = 13.5%.

Chairman explained that as part of Tien Wah's long term supply agreement with BAT, Tien Wah is required to maintain a buffer capacity of 30%.
Not sure what does this imply?

it means max operating capacity must be less than 70% of the production max capacity..