New Toyo

[psolhawk]

Your posting has made it even more clear isn't it? With an approximate 50% dividend payout, I believe there has not been a fundamental change in the payout policy of the company and Mr Market has not drastically rerated it as a result.

[Underdogger]

Forward, sustainable full-yr EPS for New Toyo should be about 4 cents.
full-yr dividend = 1.6 cents
40% payout ..


Share price = 28 cents, P/E = 7
think this is about the fair price without SAH.

[Underdogger]

it is the decling EPS...no choice...EPS drop, dividend payout drop!..

previous 2 cents dividend is not sustainable , contrary to common belief

Your posting has made it even more clear isn't it? With an approximate 50% dividend payout, I believe there has not been a fundamental change in the payout policy of the company and Mr Market has not drastically rerated it as a result.

[Underdogger]

Curiousparty has already made the point about the unsustainability of maintaining the 1.94 cents of dividends many months back...

A lot of people thought otherwise. Now, we see the truth!

without the profit contribution from SAH, I doubt New Toyo is able to continue dishing out 1.94 cents per year..Selling off assets of SAH is like losing a righthand man...

Your view pls?

Until the plans on SAH materialised, there is always the risks of the balance 50% cash being used for RTO of some China properties company - refer to posting on Bright Orient.

We shall wait and see. $ not in your pocket remains illusive.

[Underdogger]

At least someone is telling the truth. Plain cigarette packaging won't make any difference
I don’t think plain packaging is going to do anything at all to smoking take up rate . it goes up or down due to other reasons. Did u all know that smoking rates in Spore are going up?? The more the govt tried to prevent people from doing something, the more they want to do it...Just look at the SIN industries , gambling, drugs, prostitution , etc...


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Plain cigarette packaging won't make any difference
NICOLA Roxon should stop crowing. Everyone knows that plain packaging of cigarettes is not going to change anything. There is not an outlet in Australia where you can see cigarettes on display.
The only thing that would make any difference would be if she were to ban them altogether and she wouldn't do that because there would be a $5 billion hole in the budget.
This exercise has simply been another disgraceful waste of taxpayers' money. People who choose to over-eat, drink too much or smoke have only themselves to blame for the consequences and that is their choice. You can't legislate against stupidity. Just as we can't legislate against stupid people being elected.
Glenys Clift, Toowoomba, Qld
IT continues to defy belief that a manufacturer's name and logo on a product that, by law, cannot be displayed or advertised, can constitute an inducement to somebody to purchase and use that product. Yet such is the government's position.

The graphic illustrations are already there, as are the printed warnings about the dangers of smoking. So what reduction in the number of tobacco users will be achieved by the removal of these two items? In my opinion, not a lot, if anything.
Those who already smoke will continue to do so, most probably immediately discarding these new packets on purchase and transferring the contents into some other container.
Newcomers to smoking will have been introduced to it by someone else. They cannot possibly be induced by something they are prohibited from seeing, hearing or reading about, and certainly not by a manufacturer's logo. The fact is, the number of smokers will continue to decline, regardless of any new packaging.
Michael Strangways Price, Mandurah, WA

[Underdogger]

EBITDA (without SAH) = 40m

NT will be valued at 59 cents (without SAH).
Plus 12 cents cash from SAH.

71 cents

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Amcor announces today the purchase of Wayne Richardson Sales. With sales of approximately $50 million and over 2,700 customers the business is one of the largest independently owned packaging distributors in Australia with a network of eight distribution centres across Australia. The business is a distributor of a broad range of industrial packaging and packaging consumables to small and medium size customers. The purchase multiple was approximately 6.5 times fiscal year 2012 EBITDA and the acquisition is expected to deliver returns in excess of 20% by year three. Amcor’s Managing Director and CEO, Ken MacKenzie said: “The purchase of Wayne Richardson Sales improves the value proposition of Amcor’s existing packaging business and strengthens our market position. It brings to Amcor a new and more effective channel to small and medium sized packaging customers. The combined business will provide new products as well as additional services and enhanced technical support for customers.”

Chances are much higher now for Amcor to re-acquire New Toyo (with Tien Wah) now that NT has established itself as a leader in tobacco packaging...

Previously, Amcor withdrew itself from Malaysia...It might be making a comeback again

Amcor growth strategy has always been thru aggressive M & A....

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Largest-Ever Survey on Global Tobacco Use Issues Dire Warnings


Read more: http://healthland.time.com/2012/08/17/la...z23ouUTIAC

[Underdogger]

http://www.tobaccojournal.com/Tobacco_ma...303.0.html

Tobacco market resilient – uptrading beats downtrading despite economy
12 Jul 2012. According to Euromonitor International’s updated appraisal of the global cigarette market generated from on the ground analysis within the 80 leading tobacco consuming countries*, the global tobacco market was worth ~USD 740 bn (EUR 586 bn) in 2011, about 11 per cent more than in 2010.

[Curiousparty]

Tien Wah's lower cost base may result in it winning over some of Amcor's customers when their contracts end with Amcor.

This together with New Toyo's winning of supply contract with PMI in the Phillipines should cement their position in Asia Pacific as a leading Tobacco Packager

With the organic growth of cigarette volume in Asia (despite drop in developed countries), Tien Wah could be ascending to a new height not seen previously.

In the end. Amcor might be tempted to re-acquire Tien Wah It previously sold off its stake in Tien Wah to New Toyo in some backend deal...

[Curiousparty]

Breaking down the value of New Toyo.

a. 54% Stake in Tien Wah market price at 2.07 RM = 43mil SD (cash if sold off in open stock market; MV of Tien Wah is at 10% discount to its NAV)
b. 34% stake of SAH = 34% x 160mil = 54.4 mil SD (cash)
c. New Toyo's Own Investment properties = $25.64 mil (market valuation as at Dec 2011)
d. New Toyo's own specialty paper business = $4mil to $5mil net profit per annum (Say 10 cents, assuming P/E = 10)
e. Existing cash holding = 26mil.

Adding (a) to (e) will give 44 cents (of which 34 cents are close to CASH STATUS).
The figures are all easily verifiable

Isn't its NAV of 36 cents clearly under-stated?

[l0nEr]

Hi, just a quick question, rather new to this company.
based on valuation, SAH has SGD162million of cash right?
How come in Q2, SAH only announced 8.5cents of dividends? x 881,906,089 no. of ordinary shares, that is only SGD75m.
So where is all the rest of the money going?

Also, are you sure New Toyo holds 100% of all the investment properties?

Btw, think if you add the net cash position into your calculations, you will get a much higher NAV. Although P/E of 10 seems rather high.

Thanks!