New Toyo

[Stockerman]

Wall of resistance at 30 cents .....a super miracle if it can break up that level...

[Stockerman]

Zero bids for New Toyo this morning...probably buyers have given up hope !!

why would someone be interested in just selling one lot ? think hard..haha

[Curiousparty]

how about those who bought SAH at 10 cents earlier betting that something BIG will happen to the Shell of SAH?
SAH droppping to reality now...9.6 cents now. Wont they have to dump it before SAH drops to zero due to captial reduction?

[Curiousparty]

this will reduce the sales of cigarette volumes in Vietnam, one of the leading markets for Tien Wah/New Toyo....

slow gradual death of cigarette companies with increasingly harsh regulations...

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CPV) - Hanoi has just promulgated Plan 70, on implementing the National Strategy for Tobacco Harm Prevention toward 2020 in Hanoi.

Under the plan, the city will ban smoking indoors and within the campus of medical facilities, educational facilities, facilities caring for and providing entertainment for only children, and facilities or areas at high risk of fire and explosion.

Accordingly, Hanoi totally bans smoking indoors in workplaces, colleges, universities, institutions, vehicles, aircraft and trams.

Isolated areas of airports, bars, karaoke clubs, dance halls, hotels and tourist accommodation facilities, and public transport by ship and train are allowed to have a place reserved for smokers. However, it must be a separate room and have a separate ventilation system from non-smoking areas, ashtrays, warning signs and equipment for fire preventing and fighting.

According to a report of the Legal Department under the Ministry of Health, the rate of tobacco use in Vietnam is high, around 15.3 million people; and nearly 60% of the population is exposed to cigarette smoke. Every year, about 40,000 people in Vietnam die of tobacco-related diseases.

The target of the plan is to reduce the need to use, and control to gradually reduce the supply, of tobacco products sold in Vietnam, in order to reduce cases of illness and death caused by tobacco use.

Earlier, on January 25, 2013, the Prime Minister approved the National Strategy for Tobacco Harm Prevention toward 2020. The strategy strives to reduce the rate of tobacco use among youth (15 - 24 years) from 26% in 2011 to 18% in 2020; among males from 47.4% in 2011 to 39% in 2020; and among females to 1.4% by 2020./.

[Stockerman]

it is always about market's expectation....

you see, if market has expected Xcents of special dividends but company only pays out Y cents (much lower than X), market might be disappointed and this will be reflected in share price...

So, what is it like for New Toyo now? With the full winding down and delisting of SAH, New Toyo has gotten back 12 cents!!!
And how much are they going to pay out, bearing in mind that this is NOT NEW MONEY. it is already part of the existing NAV of New Toyo.

[pianist]

i dun think there is any justifiable requirement for NT to payout the 12cents as NT may need them for business expansion or capex in the future..true?

[Stockerman]

doesn't the existing business at Tien Wah pay for itself, including renewal and expansion?

unless we accept the agrument that tobacco printing/packaging is too capital intensive. The business does not pay for itself and new money is needed. then tobacco packaging as a business is not sustainable?

Previously, someone made the comments that tobacco printing/packaging is capital intensive, and might not be finanically sustainable - this might be right afterall.
At the recent AGM, Tien Wah Chairman stressed that they need to continually upgrade to keep pace with their competitor (Amcor). The inference is that failure to do so might seriously reduce the likelihood of securing the renewal of the current BAT contract, which is set to expire in abt 2 years' time.

i dun think there is any justifiable requirement for NT to payout the 12cents as NT may need them for business expansion or capex in the future..true?

[Curiousparty]

yesterday, no bidder in the morning.

today, no seller.

highly illiquid and possibly "manipulative" counter...!

Zero bids for New Toyo this morning...probably buyers have given up hope !!

why would someone be interested in just selling one lot ? think hard..haha

[Stockerman]

Big tobacco companies' profit margin can be maintained even if volume drops. This is because they can just jack up the price of cigarette.

Can tobacco printing/packaging companies like Tien Wah/New Toyo jack up their prices (of packagaing and printing) to clients like BAT and PMI? Very likely.
Their growth is largely driven by volume growth in cigarette printing volume. If volume of cigarette tapers off, they will suffer because essentially they have no pricing power ...

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http://www.trefis.com/stock/pm/articles/...m=artPopin

» ‘Sin Tax’ law implemented in Philippines this year is expected to significantly drag Philip Morris’ volume growth from Asia
» Australian Plain Packaging law is expected to have marginal impact on the company’s earnings
» Russian Anti-Tobacco law expected to put further pressure on volumes during the later half of the year
» Higher revenue per cigarette driven by lower volume growth and sharp price increases is expected to drive better operating margins

[CityFarmer]

As buddy here, my advice is to re-use the time spent, on other profitable stocks. It might be a more productive investment effort, than monitor the sell & buy Q...

Maybe another "different & profitable" New Toyo is around the corner, if search effort invests wisely...