Bloomberg: U.S. Dot-Com Bubble Was Nothing Compared to Today’s China Prices

[FA+TA]

Source: Apply daily's Dr Chan Yan Chong's column
I've translated the main points
曾淵滄專欄：大時代的夢醒時份
恒指昨日收報24975點，很接近被傳媒形容為港股大時代的起點，今年4月1日的開市水平，當日，恒指裂口高開，開市時指數報24955點，之後就進入狂升的日子，4月正是春花開放的日子，可惜春夢易醒，大家就當成是欣賞一場大時代的電視劇。
幸好現水平，或者說3月底的水平依然比去年滬港通開通時高，換言之，只需入市早，至今依然有賬面上的盈利，我在去年中就已經不斷地告訴大家機不可失，可以買A50 ETF及港交所（388），現在，我也看不出滬綜指會回跌至2000點，港交所股價也應該不會跌至去年中的140元水平。

不信中央暴力救市Don't believe central government want to rescue the market violently

一向以來，我都不鼓勵高追，現在，恒指由高位計算只是下跌一成多，跌得重的是二三四線股、垃圾股、概念股，這類股過去半年我一而再地說只適合小注怡情。現在，我再強調昨日講的話，不要短炒博反彈，如果有大藍籌股能提供令你滿意的股息率，可以考慮買入收息。
過去幾天，傳媒說中央政府打算暴力救市，In the past few days, media reported that central government plans to rescue the market violently (strongly).
我並不相信，I don't believe it.
若中央真想暴力救市，中央絕對有能力托市，If the central government wants to rescue the stock market, she absolutely has the ability to support the stock market.
若真有暴力救市，我們應該在電視機前看到李克強大談暴力救市的行動，正如2009年溫家寶在電視機鏡頭前告訴全世界，中國政府會投入4萬億元人民幣於基建，If central government is now supporting the stock market violently, we will see Premier Li Keqiang in TV, talking about the central government's action; just like in 2009 when Premier Wen Jiabao told the world in TV that China will invest 4000 billion renminbi in infrastructure.
1998年董建華也在電視機鏡頭前談港府打大鱷。Or in 1998, Chief Executive Tung Chee Hwa appeared in TV, talking how the HK government will deal with market speculators畢竟目前滬綜指依然比一年前高了許多，
目前中央政府應該只是想穩住股市，而不是再掀狂炒之風。Currently, the central government just want to stabilise the stock market, not to encourage the speculation of stock market.

[FA+TA]

Source: Apple Daily
財智語陸：氣氛好轉有數得計

論投資氣氛，昨日無論是中國股市還是香港股市，都似乎較前日為佳。或者會有讀者反駁，恒指前日大跌超過800點，昨日只跌不足300點，氣氛當然好一點，但如果只從指數的跌幅多少去分析市場氣氛，絕對有點以偏概全。
先說港股，昨日下跌的股份數量其實仍然超過1,000家，可是如果細心去分析，就會發現不少股份昨日雖然顯著下跌，不過低位卻是高於上日低位，這代表在中國股市仍然不穩下，港股的確有斬倉壓力，但已較周一顯著消減，這亦可以從大市的成交可以看到。

靜待市場回復理性

至於內地股市，跌停的股份超過1,600家，較周一顯著上升，這亦可能是導致昨日兩地成交大減的主要原因，如果比較上周四及五兩地市場的跌停股份亦超過1,400家，可是當時兩地的成交卻持續高企，這代表上周四及五內地股市的沽壓遠較昨日為多，同時亦反映出投資者已開始逐步暫停非理性拋售。
當然，在連環救市後，內地股市似乎仍未起色，會令各界懷疑中國股市是否仍有生機，尤其是今次跌市會否已傷及中國的經濟，可是只要留意，
中國家庭的財富只有不到15%的金融資產投入股市，絕大部份其實是存款或現金。Only less than 15% of Chinese families' financial assets invest in stock market, majorities of financial assets still in deposits or cash.

另外，今年以來股權融資總額為2,890億元人民幣，不到同期社會總融資量的5%，
Besides, the total equity financing is only 289 billion renminbi, less than 5% of the total volume of society financing 故此真正影響中國股市不是經濟前景，而是市場是否可以逐步回復理性，而去槓桿化何時完成，才是重中之重，而以昨日中港兩地市場的氣氛去分析，但願去槓桿問題可逐步淡化。

陳永陸
獨立股評人

[greengiraffe]

Jul 8 2015 at 4:24 PM Updated Jul 8 2015 at 4:30 PM

Chinese share market: Time to buy Chinese shares

by Matthew Smith
What do you do if you have direct exposure to a share market in free fall? Simple, you buy more shares, a leading fund manager says.

Despite the global view that the Chinese share market is tricked – hopped up on stimulus money pumped in by China's Securities Finance Corporation – Platinum International is confident the recent selloff is a screaming buy opportunity and has been doubling-down its China A share holdings.

The investment firm has been adding to its China A Shares exposure in recent days as market watchers have gasped at the vertical decline of the Chinese share market.

The Shanghai Composite Index was in the middle of its third full day for 5-plus per cent plunges on Wednesday registering a more than 30 per cent drop since the middle of June.

Platinum says now is the time to buy in China.
Platinum says now is the time to buy in China.
But Platinum CIO Andrew Clifford is calm in his resolve that buying China shares is the right move now despite views the Chinese government has lost control of its free-market share market experiment.

Attempts to stymie the share market rout, firstly with interest-rate cuts by China's central bank at the weekend and recently with stock purchases by state-directed funds, appear to have failed.

"I can't disagree there's been a misjudgement here, but I can tell you about the companies and what they're worth and the prices we're paying for them," said Clifford, who like many market watchers marvelled at the ill times efforts to bolster the share market by buying shares.

"This is like 2000 when technology stocks got sold off and the rest of the market got cheap. This is a time when you need to be buying the rest of the market and not selling it," Clifford said.

Platinum is one of a small handful on investment firms in Australia with a license to buy an allocation of China A Shares. AMP Capital has a listed investment company which invests in the China A shares market – that fund trades at a close to 30 per cent discount to its net tangible assets.

Far from sifting through the bargain-basement bin, Clifford is focusing on the large market capitalised companies, particularly among insurance, consumer and internet companies.

Currently Platinum has around 10 per cent of its Asia fund and 8.5 per cent of its international fund invested directly in China A Shares. In total Platinum had 37 per cent and 23 per cent exposure to China through its Asia and international funds respectively via Hong Kong and NYSE-listed China shares.

Chinese stocks among the top 10 positions in Platinum's Asia fund include PICC Property & Casualty Co, China Mobile, (NYSE-listed) Baidu, China Pacific and Kweichow Moutai.

Financial stocks dominate the share register of AMP Capital's China Growth fund with local brokerage businesses accounting for the investment firms most prominent active positions.

While Clifford admitted to harbouring some concerns relating to the timing of share buying of state-directed funds, he noted investing in more established developed markets were not without the same risks.

"The world's biggest markets are interest rate markets and I'd put it to you that every one of them is artificially set by a central bank somewhere in the world," Clifford said.

The issue for investors is in China is how much worse will this will get, he added.

"This is an unusual situation but we are very confident of the value and what we own there and we will just ride through," he said.

[BlueKelah]

Institutional investors are 50%-50% on China stock market outlook, based on readings. One unique of China stock market now, is mainly supported by retail investors. The investing community's "herd behavior" now is to exit the market, I guess.

I forgot to add, now that the stock market is crashing, it is very likely more chinese developer defaulting from cashflow problem, when they are unable to raise more money from bond issue to roll over their high debt.

Also dun think anyone will be in the mood to buy property when their stock portfolio is shrinking so fast.

And dun forget the margin accounts, many speculators will have to sell their other assets to pay back leveraged losses, which for chinese will be mainly gold and property. This could have big sell-down effect on property market in the near future.

So it is likely china property market will start to crash soon as well.

as I mentioned before, Japan 2.0

[greengiraffe]

Institutional investors are 50%-50% on China stock market outlook, based on readings. One unique of China stock market now, is mainly supported by retail investors. The investing community's "herd behavior" now is to exit the market, I guess.

I forgot to add, now that the stock market is crashing, it is very likely more chinese developer defaulting from cashflow problem, when they are unable to raise more money from bond issue to roll over their high debt.

Also dun think anyone will be in the mood to buy property when their stock account is shrinking. This could have big sell-down effect on property market.

And dun forget the margin accounts, many speculators will have to sell their other assets which for chinese will be mainly gold and property.

So it is likely china property market will start to crash soon as well.

as I mentioned before, Japan 2.0

Yes Dr Doom... Mr BK 2.1

[CityFarmer]

Institutional investors are 50%-50% on China stock market outlook, based on readings. One unique of China stock market now, is mainly supported by retail investors. The investing community's "herd behavior" now is to exit the market, I guess.

I forgot to add, now that the stock market is crashing, it is very likely more chinese developer defaulting from cashflow problem, when they are unable to raise more money from bond issue to roll over their high debt.

Also dun think anyone will be in the mood to buy property when their stock portfolio is shrinking so fast.

And dun forget the margin accounts, many speculators will have to sell their other assets to pay back leveraged losses, which for chinese will be mainly gold and property. This could have big sell-down effect on property market in the near future.

So it is likely china property market will start to crash soon as well.

as I mentioned before, Japan 2.0

I am not surprised, that you are keeping the doom story on China property.

[CityFarmer]

I agree that it is too extreme, and not helpful for the capital market liberalization effort...

China’s stock sale ban draws scorns from Templeton, Wells Fargo

NEW YORK (July 9): Templeton Emerging Markets Group calls it an act of “desperation.” UBS Wealth Management labels it “extreme.” And Wells Fargo Funds Management says it just “postpones the inevitable.”

China’s decision to ban major stockholders from selling stakes in listed companies has drawn skepticism from foreign investors. The money managers, with combined assets of almost US$4 trillion ($5.4 trillion), say the latest step to stem the country’s equity rout is just another measure to meddle in the market and won’t be enough to restore investors’ confidence.

“It suggests desperation,” Mark Mobius, chairman of Templeton Emerging Markets Group, said by phone. “It actually creates more fear because it shows that they’ve lost control.”

The China Securities Regulatory Commission said Wednesday that investors with holdings exceeding 5% as well as corporate executives and directors are prohibited from selling stakes for six months. The rule is intended to stabilise capital markets amid an “unreasonable plunge” in share prices, it said.

While China has already ordered government-owned institutions to maintain or increase stock holdings, the CSRC directive expands the sales ban to non-state companies and potentially foreign investors who own major stakes in mainland businesses.
...
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/sg/article...ells-fargo

[greengiraffe]

Remember Dr M vs Soros during AFC?

These are economic-social issues... no right and wrong but will go down into history books...

Free show just enjoy and learn...

GG

I agree that it is too extreme, and not helpful for the capital market liberalization effort...

China’s stock sale ban draws scorns from Templeton, Wells Fargo

NEW YORK (July 9): Templeton Emerging Markets Group calls it an act of “desperation.” UBS Wealth Management labels it “extreme.” And Wells Fargo Funds Management says it just “postpones the inevitable.”

China’s decision to ban major stockholders from selling stakes in listed companies has drawn skepticism from foreign investors. The money managers, with combined assets of almost US$4 trillion ($5.4 trillion), say the latest step to stem the country’s equity rout is just another measure to meddle in the market and won’t be enough to restore investors’ confidence.

“It suggests desperation,” Mark Mobius, chairman of Templeton Emerging Markets Group, said by phone. “It actually creates more fear because it shows that they’ve lost control.”

The China Securities Regulatory Commission said Wednesday that investors with holdings exceeding 5% as well as corporate executives and directors are prohibited from selling stakes for six months. The rule is intended to stabilise capital markets amid an “unreasonable plunge” in share prices, it said.

While China has already ordered government-owned institutions to maintain or increase stock holdings, the CSRC directive expands the sales ban to non-state companies and potentially foreign investors who own major stakes in mainland businesses.
...
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/sg/article...ells-fargo

[Behappyalways]

(Be careful with S-chips. Some of the Chinese shareholders might need to offload to get cash if they are burnt in Chinese market)


this-is-why-so-many-chinese-companies-are-suspended
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2...-suspended

[CityFarmer]

Few measures to stabilize the stock market, which only possible in China, on top of already known measures.

Chinese insurers banned from demanding repayment from brokerages ahead of deadline
[SHANGHAI] China's insurance regulator said on Thursday it has allowed insurers which lent brokerages money through stock-related businesses to renegotiate deadlines for repayment, and forbid them from demanding money back ahead of the deadline.
...
Source: Business Times Breaking News

China police, regulators launch joint probe into 'vicious short-selling'
[BEIJING] Chinese police and security regulators launched a joint probe on Thursday into "vicious short-selling" on the country's plunging stock markets, the official Xinhua news agency reported.
...
Source: Business Times Breaking News