ISDN Holdings

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#61
Hi Squirrel,

I've gone through some qualitative and quantitative analysis - while the quantitative part is impressive (this year versus last), I'm taken aback by the compensation given to Mr Teo Cher Koon. While his base salary (which is quite a high base) goes up year on year at an acceptable 4%, his bonuses and other compensation looks to be quite wild for me. This sticks out like a sore thumb for me, when I look at his overall package versus ISDN's net income or operating income (and versus other companies with similar performances 'metrics-wise. I happened to find an annual report over a decade and a half ago, it appears to me that the board members have been largely the same. Is the remuneration committee as independent as it should be? Is Mr Teo's $2-4 million disproportionate to the company's $10-20 million earnings each year in the last decade?
It’s good to have money and the things that money can buy, but it’s good, too, to check up once in a while and make sure that you haven’t lost the things that money can’t buy. –George Lorimer
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#61
Hi Squirrel,

I've gone through some qualitative and quantitative analysis - while the quantitative part is impressive (this year versus last), I'm taken aback by the compensation given to Mr Teo Cher Koon. While his base salary (which is quite a high base) goes up year on year at an acceptable 4%, his bonuses and other compensation looks to be quite wild for me. This sticks out like a sore thumb for me, when I look at his overall package versus ISDN's net income or operating income (and versus other companies with similar performances 'metrics-wise. I happened to find an annual report over a decade and a half ago, it appears to me that the board members have been largely the same. Is the remuneration committee as independent as it should be? Is Mr Teo's $2-4 million disproportionate to the company's $10-20 million earnings each year in the last decade?
It’s good to have money and the things that money can buy, but it’s good, too, to check up once in a while and make sure that you haven’t lost the things that money can’t buy. –George Lorimer
Reply
#62
(19-10-2020, 06:03 PM)psolhawk Wrote: Hi Squirrel,

I've gone through some qualitative and quantitative analysis - while the quantitative part is impressive (this year versus last), I'm taken aback by the compensation given to Mr Teo Cher Koon. While his base salary (which is quite a high base) goes up year on year at an acceptable 4%, his bonuses and other compensation looks to be quite wild for me. This sticks out like a sore thumb for me, when I look at his overall package versus ISDN's net income or operating income (and versus other companies with similar performances 'metrics-wise. I happened to find an annual report over a decade and a half ago, it appears to me that the board members have been largely the same. Is the remuneration committee as independent as it should be? Is Mr Teo's $2-4 million disproportionate to the company's $10-20 million earnings each year in the last decade?

Yeah, I was quite peeved over that as well. Especially in the years when the company is not doing particularly well. The company has done a remuneration review this year and reduced his cash compensation accordingly. Admittedly its still on the high side, but I am hoping it stays the same when the company becomes a half billion dollar market cap company!

Please do your own due diligence. Any reliance on my posts is at your own risk.
Reply
#62
(19-10-2020, 06:03 PM)psolhawk Wrote: Hi Squirrel,

I've gone through some qualitative and quantitative analysis - while the quantitative part is impressive (this year versus last), I'm taken aback by the compensation given to Mr Teo Cher Koon. While his base salary (which is quite a high base) goes up year on year at an acceptable 4%, his bonuses and other compensation looks to be quite wild for me. This sticks out like a sore thumb for me, when I look at his overall package versus ISDN's net income or operating income (and versus other companies with similar performances 'metrics-wise. I happened to find an annual report over a decade and a half ago, it appears to me that the board members have been largely the same. Is the remuneration committee as independent as it should be? Is Mr Teo's $2-4 million disproportionate to the company's $10-20 million earnings each year in the last decade?

Yeah, I was quite peeved over that as well. Especially in the years when the company is not doing particularly well. The company has done a remuneration review this year and reduced his cash compensation accordingly. Admittedly its still on the high side, but I am hoping it stays the same when the company becomes a half billion dollar market cap company!

Please do your own due diligence. Any reliance on my posts is at your own risk.
Reply
#63
Voluntary announcement on business performance.

"Propelled by continued strong demand for industrial automation from the People’s Republic of China and Southeast Asia,coupled with growing construction revenue, ISDN’s 9M2020 revenue increasedby 24.7% year-on-year (“YoY”)to  S$264.0million

On top of solid revenue growth, the continued prudent management of operating costs at the Group helped expand net profit margin to 7.5% for 9M2020, compared to 6.3% in 9M2019.

As a result, ISDN’s 9M2020 net profit rose 105.4% to S$ 15.1 million, up from S$ 7.3 million in the same period last year"

https://links.sgx.com/1.0.0/corporate-an...20_ENG.pdf

Now to review various research platforms and have an inkling of what they would do next.

Kenny from KGI - had estimated a target price of $0.47 based on PATMI of $14.1m for FY20 and 14x PE. Given that 9M was $15m, reversing out to 3Q PATMI of $5.4m. Extrapolating the same performance would give $20.4m FY performance. Directly using the 14x PE should give a $0.66 TP

https://s3-ap-southeast-1.amazonaws.com/...1597889844

William from CIMB - had estimated a target price of $0.501 based on PATMI in FY21 of $21.52m for FY20 and 10x PE. Direct update of $20.4m and assuming growth of 15% (as assumed by William) will give FY21 PATMI of $23.46. Directly using back the 10x PE on FY21 will give a $0.55 TP

https://s3-ap-southeast-1.amazonaws.com/...1597106680

Interesting to see how the analysis are done. Would William reduce the 61% discount against peers given "Potential re-rating catalysts for the stock could come from stronger-than-expected sales orders for its mainstay IA and profit contribution from its hydropower segment".

And given there is no mention of contribution to profits by the coating business, I assume that's either insignificant or not yet consolidated into their accounts. Either way, that didn't form part of my investment thesis. Maybe it might surprise in the full year results?

Please do your own due diligence. Any reliance on my posts is at your own risk.
Reply
#63
Voluntary announcement on business performance.

"Propelled by continued strong demand for industrial automation from the People’s Republic of China and Southeast Asia,coupled with growing construction revenue, ISDN’s 9M2020 revenue increasedby 24.7% year-on-year (“YoY”)to  S$264.0million

On top of solid revenue growth, the continued prudent management of operating costs at the Group helped expand net profit margin to 7.5% for 9M2020, compared to 6.3% in 9M2019.

As a result, ISDN’s 9M2020 net profit rose 105.4% to S$ 15.1 million, up from S$ 7.3 million in the same period last year"

https://links.sgx.com/1.0.0/corporate-an...20_ENG.pdf

Now to review various research platforms and have an inkling of what they would do next.

Kenny from KGI - had estimated a target price of $0.47 based on PATMI of $14.1m for FY20 and 14x PE. Given that 9M was $15m, reversing out to 3Q PATMI of $5.4m. Extrapolating the same performance would give $20.4m FY performance. Directly using the 14x PE should give a $0.66 TP

https://s3-ap-southeast-1.amazonaws.com/...1597889844

William from CIMB - had estimated a target price of $0.501 based on PATMI in FY21 of $21.52m for FY20 and 10x PE. Direct update of $20.4m and assuming growth of 15% (as assumed by William) will give FY21 PATMI of $23.46. Directly using back the 10x PE on FY21 will give a $0.55 TP

https://s3-ap-southeast-1.amazonaws.com/...1597106680

Interesting to see how the analysis are done. Would William reduce the 61% discount against peers given "Potential re-rating catalysts for the stock could come from stronger-than-expected sales orders for its mainstay IA and profit contribution from its hydropower segment".

And given there is no mention of contribution to profits by the coating business, I assume that's either insignificant or not yet consolidated into their accounts. Either way, that didn't form part of my investment thesis. Maybe it might surprise in the full year results?

Please do your own due diligence. Any reliance on my posts is at your own risk.
Reply
#64
(05-11-2020, 01:04 AM)Squirrel Wrote: Voluntary announcement on business performance.

"Propelled by continued strong demand for industrial automation from the People’s Republic of China and Southeast Asia,coupled with growing construction revenue, ISDN’s 9M2020 revenue increasedby 24.7% year-on-year (“YoY”)to  S$264.0million

On top of solid revenue growth, the continued prudent management of operating costs at the Group helped expand net profit margin to 7.5% for 9M2020, compared to 6.3% in 9M2019.

As a result, ISDN’s 9M2020 net profit rose 105.4% to S$ 15.1 million, up from S$ 7.3 million in the same period last year"

https://links.sgx.com/1.0.0/corporate-an...20_ENG.pdf

Now to review various research platforms and have an inkling of what they would do next.

Kenny from KGI - had estimated a target price of $0.47 based on PATMI of $14.1m for FY20 and 14x PE. Given that 9M was $15m, reversing out to 3Q PATMI of $5.4m. Extrapolating the same performance would give $20.4m FY performance. Directly using the 14x PE should give a $0.66 TP

https://s3-ap-southeast-1.amazonaws.com/...1597889844

William from CIMB - had estimated a target price of $0.501 based on PATMI in FY21 of $21.52m for FY20 and 10x PE. Direct update of $20.4m and assuming growth of 15% (as assumed by William) will give FY21 PATMI of $23.46. Directly using back the 10x PE on FY21 will give a $0.55 TP

https://s3-ap-southeast-1.amazonaws.com/...1597106680

Interesting to see how the analysis are done. Would William reduce the 61% discount against peers given "Potential re-rating catalysts for the stock could come from stronger-than-expected sales orders for its mainstay IA and profit contribution from its hydropower segment".

And given there is no mention of contribution to profits by the coating business, I assume that's either insignificant or not yet consolidated into their accounts. Either way, that didn't form part of my investment thesis. Maybe it might surprise in the full year results?

Well CIMB heard u...new target 65ct..

Growth to continue into FY21F ■ 9M20 net profit (at 80% of our FY20F estimate) was in line with our forecast. ■ 9M20 performance was driven by strong orders in its core industrial automation business. ■ Reiterate Add with a higher S$0.65 TP as we raise our P/E target to 12x given its strong results and after rolling over to CY22F.
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#64
(05-11-2020, 01:04 AM)Squirrel Wrote: Voluntary announcement on business performance.

"Propelled by continued strong demand for industrial automation from the People’s Republic of China and Southeast Asia,coupled with growing construction revenue, ISDN’s 9M2020 revenue increasedby 24.7% year-on-year (“YoY”)to  S$264.0million

On top of solid revenue growth, the continued prudent management of operating costs at the Group helped expand net profit margin to 7.5% for 9M2020, compared to 6.3% in 9M2019.

As a result, ISDN’s 9M2020 net profit rose 105.4% to S$ 15.1 million, up from S$ 7.3 million in the same period last year"

https://links.sgx.com/1.0.0/corporate-an...20_ENG.pdf

Now to review various research platforms and have an inkling of what they would do next.

Kenny from KGI - had estimated a target price of $0.47 based on PATMI of $14.1m for FY20 and 14x PE. Given that 9M was $15m, reversing out to 3Q PATMI of $5.4m. Extrapolating the same performance would give $20.4m FY performance. Directly using the 14x PE should give a $0.66 TP

https://s3-ap-southeast-1.amazonaws.com/...1597889844

William from CIMB - had estimated a target price of $0.501 based on PATMI in FY21 of $21.52m for FY20 and 10x PE. Direct update of $20.4m and assuming growth of 15% (as assumed by William) will give FY21 PATMI of $23.46. Directly using back the 10x PE on FY21 will give a $0.55 TP

https://s3-ap-southeast-1.amazonaws.com/...1597106680

Interesting to see how the analysis are done. Would William reduce the 61% discount against peers given "Potential re-rating catalysts for the stock could come from stronger-than-expected sales orders for its mainstay IA and profit contribution from its hydropower segment".

And given there is no mention of contribution to profits by the coating business, I assume that's either insignificant or not yet consolidated into their accounts. Either way, that didn't form part of my investment thesis. Maybe it might surprise in the full year results?

Well CIMB heard u...new target 65ct..

Growth to continue into FY21F ■ 9M20 net profit (at 80% of our FY20F estimate) was in line with our forecast. ■ 9M20 performance was driven by strong orders in its core industrial automation business. ■ Reiterate Add with a higher S$0.65 TP as we raise our P/E target to 12x given its strong results and after rolling over to CY22F.
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#65
Kenny has yet to respond though. Should fall into around the same region as William’s TP.

We shall see what happens. I guess they being financial analysts would be bound to certain rules? So they can’t risking giving too high a TP? Not sure why but it’s good that they refresh quite often with updated information.

Please do your own due diligence. Any reliance on my posts is at your own risk.
Reply
#65
Kenny has yet to respond though. Should fall into around the same region as William’s TP.

We shall see what happens. I guess they being financial analysts would be bound to certain rules? So they can’t risking giving too high a TP? Not sure why but it’s good that they refresh quite often with updated information.

Please do your own due diligence. Any reliance on my posts is at your own risk.
Reply
#66
Nextinsight has a new interesting article, portion as below (also from CIMB report)..i think this is very positive for ISDN going forward..

[b]On Novo Tellus selling some ISDN shares and buying back some later:[/b] "Our approach to investing is very clear and very consistent which is, we back companies with very strong long-term potential and we're long-term investors -- that's never changed. We always reserve the right to run our trading operations the way we do but I have one job as a member of the board of ISDN, which is to help the company build as much long-term equity value for all shareholders as possible. Our strategy in that respect has not changed for ISDN, has not changed for Novo Tellus, and certainly has not changed for me and my team as we work with the company to build ISDN for the long run."

[b]On how the partnership works:[/b] "
We have a deep respect for CK’s (Teo Cher Koon) long experience with the company and the industry and so the way we have built successful partnerships are really around that kind of mutual respect. So we bring ideas to each other, we discuss them together, we make decisions together but we typically won't try to come and, you know, force our view. It's been a very good process that's beginning to bear fruit we think in the performance of the company."

[b]Can Novo Tellus persuade ISDN to give forward guidance the way AEM does?[/b] "W
hat's most important to us right now and one thing we're quite proud the company is accomplishing behind the scenes is that ISDN has been consolidating its financial systems. Christine has done a lot of work with the team to roll out an ERP to consolidate financial controls and administration around the region for ISDN and that provides the company with better controls obviously but more importantly a more agile view of what's happening in the business. Together with that there's a roadmap for rolling out an upgraded CRM system so we understand our customers better. That really is the critical infrastructure for making a decision on whether to provide forward guidance or not. You know, I'm not going to pre-empt whether we will do that in the future -- that's up to CK and the board." 
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#66
Nextinsight has a new interesting article, portion as below (also from CIMB report)..i think this is very positive for ISDN going forward..

[b]On Novo Tellus selling some ISDN shares and buying back some later:[/b] "Our approach to investing is very clear and very consistent which is, we back companies with very strong long-term potential and we're long-term investors -- that's never changed. We always reserve the right to run our trading operations the way we do but I have one job as a member of the board of ISDN, which is to help the company build as much long-term equity value for all shareholders as possible. Our strategy in that respect has not changed for ISDN, has not changed for Novo Tellus, and certainly has not changed for me and my team as we work with the company to build ISDN for the long run."

[b]On how the partnership works:[/b] "
We have a deep respect for CK’s (Teo Cher Koon) long experience with the company and the industry and so the way we have built successful partnerships are really around that kind of mutual respect. So we bring ideas to each other, we discuss them together, we make decisions together but we typically won't try to come and, you know, force our view. It's been a very good process that's beginning to bear fruit we think in the performance of the company."

[b]Can Novo Tellus persuade ISDN to give forward guidance the way AEM does?[/b] "W
hat's most important to us right now and one thing we're quite proud the company is accomplishing behind the scenes is that ISDN has been consolidating its financial systems. Christine has done a lot of work with the team to roll out an ERP to consolidate financial controls and administration around the region for ISDN and that provides the company with better controls obviously but more importantly a more agile view of what's happening in the business. Together with that there's a roadmap for rolling out an upgraded CRM system so we understand our customers better. That really is the critical infrastructure for making a decision on whether to provide forward guidance or not. You know, I'm not going to pre-empt whether we will do that in the future -- that's up to CK and the board." 
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#67
Here I go again, sharing my 2 cents worth on the earnings call.

Was glad to hear from Keith from Novo Tellus on the call. It's a good showing that he took the time to join in. He did share some of his/Novo Tellus perspective on the investment. Of course we shouldn't just take his comments at face value, but neither should the audience take it too far as to accusing them of certain shenanigans. Some of the queries thrown at him was really aggressive.

My takeaway from the call is that
- Growth remains strong in Q4
- 3Q earnings were impacted by unrealised FX losses, largely from IDR volatility

Referencing William's updated research report

"Quarter-on-quarter, 3Q20 net profit fell 15.4% due to unrealised foreign exchange losses. Excluding foreign exchange losses, we think net profit expanded qoq. "

https://s3-ap-southeast-1.amazonaws.com/...1604627763

When you look at the above it's actually quite an important point being made from his conversation with the company. We know for a fact that 2Q net profit attributable to shareholders is circa $6.4m. 3Q net profit attributable is $5.5m. So that would mean unrealised FX losses would come to > $0.9m.

Lets try to dig through where the unrealised FX losses might come from, which the ISDN team did mention was in relation to the Service Concession Receivables. What I deduce is that those are denominated in IDR.

Service Concession Receivables: $54.5m
SGDIDR 30 Jun: 10,238
SGDIDR 30 Sep: 10,874

If we purely assume that all of the above is in IDR, the fx fluctuations in itself would arrive at revaluation losses of around -$3.18m in Q3 only. We do know that on a blended basis, the share of the hydroplants is about a third, and thus unrealised FX losses attributable to shareholders is about -$1.06m. Adding this back to the 3Q net profit (excluding unrealised FX losses) attributable would arrive at around +$6.5m, which is an expansion quarter on quarter compared to 2Q. Do note that 2Q was a stellar quarter with pent up demand from 1Q. Its highly commendable that the team is able to beat that.

Of course the above is purely conjecture, since the FX workings within the company is highly complex with so many juridictions and functional currencies in the mix (kudos to Christine for her hard work in putting those together!). However with the emphasis on IDR being discussed and its relation to service concession receivables, I do think the guess shouldn't be that far.

My main point though is the following
1) IDR has since recovered halfway to 10,543 at the time of writing, we should see some unrealised FX gains to the tune of $0.5m attributable to shareholders if this maintains
2) the unrealised FX losses is really an unfortunate distraction from the core earnings. Hydroplants are not the core of the business, and these revaluations would only impact the Hydroplants
3) Going forward the company should start to hedge those once the hydroplants kicks off, however on a personal note I would not do it. Hedging IDR is really expensive

So lets recap. 9M YTD net profit is $15.1m. 4Q remains strong with visible orders on the books. If we assume the same core earnings of $6.5m as 3Q and revaluation gains of $0.5m, we would be seeing $15.1m + $6.5m + $0.5m = $22.1m on an estimated FY2020 net profits. I don't know why William is keeping his estimates to $18.73m on a full year basis. Maybe he is factoring in seasonal lulls in December. However I don't really see any seasonal fluctuations from prior year performances.

$170m market cap on $22.1m full year expected profits. 25% dividend payout policy gives it a 3.25% yield, This company is trading at 7.7x PE ratio on FY2020E, 1.04 PB ratio with a burgeoning cash pile. A bargain definitely if you look at the peers that are traded in the industry. $0.395 a share? That's a steal imho. My opinion remains the same. Anything less than 20x PE on FY2020E (the industry average is trading higher than that), we might as well keep this and see through the growth in the next few years. That's at least $1 a share.

Please do your own due diligence. Any reliance on my posts is at your own risk.
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#67
Here I go again, sharing my 2 cents worth on the earnings call.

Was glad to hear from Keith from Novo Tellus on the call. It's a good showing that he took the time to join in. He did share some of his/Novo Tellus perspective on the investment. Of course we shouldn't just take his comments at face value, but neither should the audience take it too far as to accusing them of certain shenanigans. Some of the queries thrown at him was really aggressive.

My takeaway from the call is that
- Growth remains strong in Q4
- 3Q earnings were impacted by unrealised FX losses, largely from IDR volatility

Referencing William's updated research report

"Quarter-on-quarter, 3Q20 net profit fell 15.4% due to unrealised foreign exchange losses. Excluding foreign exchange losses, we think net profit expanded qoq. "

https://s3-ap-southeast-1.amazonaws.com/...1604627763

When you look at the above it's actually quite an important point being made from his conversation with the company. We know for a fact that 2Q net profit attributable to shareholders is circa $6.4m. 3Q net profit attributable is $5.5m. So that would mean unrealised FX losses would come to > $0.9m.

Lets try to dig through where the unrealised FX losses might come from, which the ISDN team did mention was in relation to the Service Concession Receivables. What I deduce is that those are denominated in IDR.

Service Concession Receivables: $54.5m
SGDIDR 30 Jun: 10,238
SGDIDR 30 Sep: 10,874

If we purely assume that all of the above is in IDR, the fx fluctuations in itself would arrive at revaluation losses of around -$3.18m in Q3 only. We do know that on a blended basis, the share of the hydroplants is about a third, and thus unrealised FX losses attributable to shareholders is about -$1.06m. Adding this back to the 3Q net profit (excluding unrealised FX losses) attributable would arrive at around +$6.5m, which is an expansion quarter on quarter compared to 2Q. Do note that 2Q was a stellar quarter with pent up demand from 1Q. Its highly commendable that the team is able to beat that.

Of course the above is purely conjecture, since the FX workings within the company is highly complex with so many juridictions and functional currencies in the mix (kudos to Christine for her hard work in putting those together!). However with the emphasis on IDR being discussed and its relation to service concession receivables, I do think the guess shouldn't be that far.

My main point though is the following
1) IDR has since recovered halfway to 10,543 at the time of writing, we should see some unrealised FX gains to the tune of $0.5m attributable to shareholders if this maintains
2) the unrealised FX losses is really an unfortunate distraction from the core earnings. Hydroplants are not the core of the business, and these revaluations would only impact the Hydroplants
3) Going forward the company should start to hedge those once the hydroplants kicks off, however on a personal note I would not do it. Hedging IDR is really expensive

So lets recap. 9M YTD net profit is $15.1m. 4Q remains strong with visible orders on the books. If we assume the same core earnings of $6.5m as 3Q and revaluation gains of $0.5m, we would be seeing $15.1m + $6.5m + $0.5m = $22.1m on an estimated FY2020 net profits. I don't know why William is keeping his estimates to $18.73m on a full year basis. Maybe he is factoring in seasonal lulls in December. However I don't really see any seasonal fluctuations from prior year performances.

$170m market cap on $22.1m full year expected profits. 25% dividend payout policy gives it a 3.25% yield, This company is trading at 7.7x PE ratio on FY2020E, 1.04 PB ratio with a burgeoning cash pile. A bargain definitely if you look at the peers that are traded in the industry. $0.395 a share? That's a steal imho. My opinion remains the same. Anything less than 20x PE on FY2020E (the industry average is trading higher than that), we might as well keep this and see through the growth in the next few years. That's at least $1 a share.

Please do your own due diligence. Any reliance on my posts is at your own risk.
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#68
Finally from KGI...

$ISDN(I07.SI)
ISDN Holdings (ISDN SP): Business recovery, and more to come (Maintain OUTPERFORM, TP: S$ 0.60) - 20 November 2020

Results Update

- ISDN provided 3Q20 updates on 4th November – 9M20 sales are up 24.7% while 9M20 PATMI has already exceed FY19 PATMI.

- Sales momentum to continue. ISDN continued to have strong performance from China and Vietnam, offsetting COVID-19 delays to its Indonesian hydropower plants. Lower expenses have also helped to deliver strong profit figures.

- Maintain OUTPERFORM with new TP of S$0.60, 50% upside to Thursday’s close. We update cost estimates and the hydropower business forecast, as well as raise revenue growth forecasts for ISDN’s side businesses
Reply
#68
Finally from KGI...

$ISDN(I07.SI)
ISDN Holdings (ISDN SP): Business recovery, and more to come (Maintain OUTPERFORM, TP: S$ 0.60) - 20 November 2020

Results Update

- ISDN provided 3Q20 updates on 4th November – 9M20 sales are up 24.7% while 9M20 PATMI has already exceed FY19 PATMI.

- Sales momentum to continue. ISDN continued to have strong performance from China and Vietnam, offsetting COVID-19 delays to its Indonesian hydropower plants. Lower expenses have also helped to deliver strong profit figures.

- Maintain OUTPERFORM with new TP of S$0.60, 50% upside to Thursday’s close. We update cost estimates and the hydropower business forecast, as well as raise revenue growth forecasts for ISDN’s side businesses
Reply
#69
(20-11-2020, 12:52 PM)mslee888 Wrote: Finally from KGI...

$ISDN(I07.SI)
ISDN Holdings (ISDN SP): Business recovery, and more to come (Maintain OUTPERFORM, TP: S$ 0.60) - 20 November 2020

Results Update

- ISDN provided 3Q20 updates on 4th November – 9M20 sales are up 24.7% while 9M20 PATMI has already exceed FY19 PATMI.

- Sales momentum to continue. ISDN continued to have strong performance from China and Vietnam, offsetting COVID-19 delays to its Indonesian hydropower plants. Lower expenses have also helped to deliver strong profit figures.

- Maintain OUTPERFORM with new TP of S$0.60, 50% upside to Thursday’s close. We update cost estimates and the hydropower business forecast, as well as raise revenue growth forecasts for ISDN’s side businesses

For anyone interested in the actual report

https://s3-ap-southeast-1.amazonaws.com/...1605844886

Some interesting forecasts by Kenny. 2021F PATMI forecasted at $18.425m. From my own estimations I would put 2020 at $22.1m. Assuming no growth and ISDN is able to maintain the roughly $6.5m a quarter performance seen in 2Q and 3Q, 2021F PATMI imho would be at least $6.5m x 4 = $26m.

Kenny's estimated 14x 2021PE would then give rise to $364m Market Cap, which translates to $0.836 per share.

Its interesting as well to see the industry peers on page 4. Theoretically, Yaskawa Electric (a long time partner to ISDN) can use a portion of their JPY 45.7bn (USD440m equiv) cash on hand to buy over ISDN at 10x of my estimated FY2021 earnings, using SGD260m (USD193m equiv). That value accretive acquisition revalued at 71.5x forward PE would add USD1.375bn (SGD1.846bn equiv) of market value to Yaskawa. Not bad in M&A terms? Would be even better for them if they fund the proceeds from equity placements.

But that's just a lingering thought on how disconnected ISDN is trading against its peers. I probably won't want ISDN to be taken out at $0.60 per share as per illustrated scenario above.

Please do your own due diligence. Any reliance on my posts is at your own risk.
Reply
#69
(20-11-2020, 12:52 PM)mslee888 Wrote: Finally from KGI...

$ISDN(I07.SI)
ISDN Holdings (ISDN SP): Business recovery, and more to come (Maintain OUTPERFORM, TP: S$ 0.60) - 20 November 2020

Results Update

- ISDN provided 3Q20 updates on 4th November – 9M20 sales are up 24.7% while 9M20 PATMI has already exceed FY19 PATMI.

- Sales momentum to continue. ISDN continued to have strong performance from China and Vietnam, offsetting COVID-19 delays to its Indonesian hydropower plants. Lower expenses have also helped to deliver strong profit figures.

- Maintain OUTPERFORM with new TP of S$0.60, 50% upside to Thursday’s close. We update cost estimates and the hydropower business forecast, as well as raise revenue growth forecasts for ISDN’s side businesses

For anyone interested in the actual report

https://s3-ap-southeast-1.amazonaws.com/...1605844886

Some interesting forecasts by Kenny. 2021F PATMI forecasted at $18.425m. From my own estimations I would put 2020 at $22.1m. Assuming no growth and ISDN is able to maintain the roughly $6.5m a quarter performance seen in 2Q and 3Q, 2021F PATMI imho would be at least $6.5m x 4 = $26m.

Kenny's estimated 14x 2021PE would then give rise to $364m Market Cap, which translates to $0.836 per share.

Its interesting as well to see the industry peers on page 4. Theoretically, Yaskawa Electric (a long time partner to ISDN) can use a portion of their JPY 45.7bn (USD440m equiv) cash on hand to buy over ISDN at 10x of my estimated FY2021 earnings, using SGD260m (USD193m equiv). That value accretive acquisition revalued at 71.5x forward PE would add USD1.375bn (SGD1.846bn equiv) of market value to Yaskawa. Not bad in M&A terms? Would be even better for them if they fund the proceeds from equity placements.

But that's just a lingering thought on how disconnected ISDN is trading against its peers. I probably won't want ISDN to be taken out at $0.60 per share as per illustrated scenario above.

Please do your own due diligence. Any reliance on my posts is at your own risk.
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#70
Hi

Press release on Waterliq's capability in eliminating Covid-19 and other viruses

https://links.sgx.com/1.0.0/corporate-an...rt_ENG.pdf

German test report confirms the efficacy of ISDN’s Waterliq against COVID-19, all enveloped viruses and non-enveloped viruses including Norovirus and Polio!

•German laboratory, Biotecon Diagnostics GmbH,has tested ISDN’s WATERLIQ on a host of viruses like Covid-19, hepatitis B, hepatitis C, herpes, measles and influenzas, proving to be highly virucidal
•This  is  the  first  report  of  its  kind,  showing  clear  evidence  of WATERLIQ’s effectiveness against the elimination of Covid-19 since the Group’s joint venture partnership with ERST Project GmbH

Please do your own due diligence. Any reliance on my posts is at your own risk.
Reply
#70
Hi

Press release on Waterliq's capability in eliminating Covid-19 and other viruses

https://links.sgx.com/1.0.0/corporate-an...rt_ENG.pdf

German test report confirms the efficacy of ISDN’s Waterliq against COVID-19, all enveloped viruses and non-enveloped viruses including Norovirus and Polio!

•German laboratory, Biotecon Diagnostics GmbH,has tested ISDN’s WATERLIQ on a host of viruses like Covid-19, hepatitis B, hepatitis C, herpes, measles and influenzas, proving to be highly virucidal
•This  is  the  first  report  of  its  kind,  showing  clear  evidence  of WATERLIQ’s effectiveness against the elimination of Covid-19 since the Group’s joint venture partnership with ERST Project GmbH

Please do your own due diligence. Any reliance on my posts is at your own risk.
Reply


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