Comments from an experienced property investor

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#1
Saw these comments from a Fit To Post article on Yahoo, and thought I would post it here for comments.

Serial investors need no advice, but I would urge first time investors to consider problems of investing in properties with great care. There are now so many properties on the market that tenants are spoilt for choice. The rental returns will barely cover the interest payments on your mortgage.

Beware Void Periods between tenancies. This is the biggest headache and is very stressful when you are haemorrhaging funds when there are no tenants to help you pay your mortgage. With a low US Dollar, the days of finding rich American tenants are over.

Properties are a lot less liquid than people think. There are lawyer's fees for the purchase, lawyer's fees again for the mortgage (unless the bank absorbs this), stamp duties, agent's fees, and so on.

Very few people actually sell when the market is high. Most people end up selling when the market is low. You are going to need to have the experience of one or two properties, over one or two cycles, at least, to get the hang of things.

I know of more people who have lost their savings on investment properties than people who made bonuses from them. After subtracting interest payments and transaction costs, there is actually very little left for the investor without holding power.

Most of the happy stories are from people who buy property for their own use. Buying a roof over your head is one of the best investments there is. Warren Buffett and all other proven investment advisers consider this to be a very good investment. Until there is a divorce, and a forced sale. So you will have to factor in the long-term stability of your marriage, which most couples in love overlook. The statistics are not in favour of an enduring marriage, so you are generally better off buying on your own.

If you are buying for your own use, there are two rules:

A. The market is always unpredictable, and
B. There is never a "good" time to buy.

So you are buying according to your needs, the analogy is that COE prices will not significantly affect your decision if you really need a car.

The big factor in investment property is the impact of China-reans who are messing up property markets round the world. Before 1997, Honkies bought properties in Singapore en masse. When they realised that things were not so bad in Hong Kong after the Chinese took over from the British, they dumped Singapore properties en masse in 1999. Singaporeans who bought investment properties in feverish times were left holding the baby. Singaporeans who bought properties for their own occupation were barely hurt.

China-reans are buying into Singapore right now en masse; the reasons do not concern us here. When they realise that it is time to liquidate their properties en masse and pump their money back to their resurgent motherland, it will make the property crash of 1999 look like a small blip. The 4-room HDB re-sale flat used to be the best investment one can make as a Singaporean (you get the concessions of a 3 roomer which 5 room/EAs do not get). Not now.

If you have not bought, be mindful that a 35+ year old single person can buy any sized resale HDB apartment, including an EA, which has risen less in percentage terms than smaller HDB properties. Do not despise low-priced HDB in unpopular areas, as these have the highest upside potential in the medium run.

The best property investment one can make is actually to transfer spare CPF in the ordinary account to progressively pay off the HDB loan. You can do this by walking down to your town council office and pay up your outstanding mortgage. The town council can transact sums of as little as $1,000. If you borrowed from a bank, give 3 months notice and redeem in $10,000+ multiples. You will be surprised how much your interest payments drop and how fast your loan disappears. Do this quickly before the rules get changed.

Dump every cent in your Ordinary Account to pay off your HDB mortgage. Title deed in hand is a good feeling. Then additional funds in the Ordinary Account you accumulate later can then be used to buy an investment property.

If you need to depend on your CPF to help pay for an investment property mortgage instalments, investment property is probably not for you. Economic reasons are far too long to set out here. But the legal reason is that CPF makes your investment very illiquid. If CPF is not involved, you can very easily get a temporary loan or second mortgage from the bank very quickly.

So go. Get down to your Town Council tomorrow and transfer all your OA CPF balance to pay off your HDB loan. No notice period is required if you borrowed from HDB. Your interest from your OA is less than the mortgage interest you are paying for the HDB loan (1% higher, payable up front). And if you do not have any money in your OA, what are you doing reading property columns anyway.


My Value Investing Blog: http://sgmusicwhiz.blogspot.com/
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#2
I like this article!
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#3
Personally, some of the recommendations in the article are debatable.

Dump every cent in your Ordinary Account to pay off your HDB mortgage.
It is far more prudent to leave a six mth to a year of instalments in OA account to take care of possible job loss.

No notice period is required if you borrowed from HDB. Your interest from your OA is less than the mortgage interest you are paying for the HDB loan (1% higher, payable up front).

For HDB loan, the interest rate is just 0.1% higher than CPF interest rate. For the 1st $20000 in CPFOA,the interest rate is 3.5%.

The best property investment one can make is actually to transfer spare CPF in the ordinary account to progressively pay off the HDB loan.

Debatable. At least, I believe in keeping the CPF money for investment rather than paying off the HDB loan. But, i suppose this method is only applicable to those that can invest wisely.(hopefully, I am one of them..haha)
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#4
(18-01-2011, 01:44 PM)yeokiwi Wrote: Personally, some of the recommendations in the article are debatable.

Dump every cent in your Ordinary Account to pay off your HDB mortgage.
It is far more prudent to leave a six mth to a year of instalments in OA account to take care of possible job loss.

No notice period is required if you borrowed from HDB. Your interest from your OA is less than the mortgage interest you are paying for the HDB loan (1% higher, payable up front).

For HDB loan, the interest rate is just 0.1% higher than CPF interest rate. For the 1st $20000 in CPFOA,the interest rate is 3.5%.

The best property investment one can make is actually to transfer spare CPF in the ordinary account to progressively pay off the HDB loan.

Debatable. At least, I believe in keeping the CPF money for investment rather than paying off the HDB loan. But, i suppose this method is only applicable to those that can invest wisely.(hopefully, I am one of them..haha)

I would slowly pay off hdb loan. Use e spare cash 4 other investment. Where else can get loan as low interest as hdb. Eg. Pay off $100k hdb then loan another $100k fr banks 4 another property or even start a business?
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#5
in general, most investors fail to beat simple saving rate.

CPF mainly serves as a retirement fund, should not be put into higher risk investment like equity.
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#6
Depends on your risk appetite.
I don't pay off my property loans, I would rather stretch them.

For example, if you are already 50% LTV, you are quite safe. Don't need to speed up your repayment process at all.

Owing to the Fiat Monetary System, the time value of money ($1 dollar today is worth more than $1dollar in x years) is almost certain to make the remaining 50% smaller as time goes by. Even if you have no investment knowledge, your wage will go up slowly but surely while your loan value will be smaller even though the loan amount is the same.

If I may be allowed to make the assumption that history repeats itself..
Think about when your parents were earning $1000 a month 20yrs ago but HDB was around $50k.
Would they be better off paying off the loan or just stretching the loan (assuming 50% ltv).
Your parents could still be earning $1000(WORST CASE scenario if they are not educated), but the loan amount will still be $25k.... But the value of the loan will be insignificant when compared to your HDB value.
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#7
to say "Dump every cent in your Ordinary Account to pay off your HDB mortgage" is plain nonsense.

for those sole breadwinner & esp. if you are on HDB concessionary loans (ie. at 0.1% above CPF OA rate)
==> you should always stretch loan period for as long as possible,
unless you're dead certain you going to sell flat within a few years,
in which case, you should NOT waste that concessionary loans to start with (only two bite in your lifetime - assuming rules dun changed)

You are EFFECTIVELY paying only a 0.1% incremental interests for a super-long loans: There are simply no other such loans in town.

IF you "kick the bucket", your flat is paidup - your dependents get both the flat + what's left in your CPF OA.

OR what if you get layoff, even if temporary.... mthly mortgage still need servicing.

And ofcourse there are also lots of relatively safe instruments that paid better than CPF OA rate, so you can invest some of those remaining OA monies for better returns,
even if such instruments are harder to come by these days, just wait a little longer...mkt cycles these days getting shorter.
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#8
Correct me if i misunderstand. I will leave sizable sum in cpf for the interest.

As if you take out all, you need to return capital+interest later, on would have earned if left in cpf. Double hit ?



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#9
What happens if you change the equation to a private bank loan that charges a floating interest rate pegged to sibor? Does the same theory apply then, to maximise loan tenure and pay the minimum while investing the rest? I would think that paying off the loan asap so that if we were not to kick the bucket before paying off the full loan, we would be debt-free or lightly debt-laden as we near retirement age...
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#10
---- From hdb website
CPF Monies utilized with Accrued Interest
If you have used your CPF monies for the purchase of the flat, you need to make a full refund of the CPF savings withdrawn plus accrued interest to your CPF account.
If you are 55 years old or above, please check CPF policies on refund of CPF monies before making any commitments to sell your flat.
-----

For HDB loan, you need to pay 2.5% + 0.1% Accrued Interest
While Bank loan, Interest from bank + 2.5% + 1% (of first 20000 of OA) = more than 4%?

Each individual will have different strategy, what I know from my friends, they are doing one of more below options
1. Keep 6 months of installament in OA by take out before 1st appointment
2. Reduce the balance during refinance
3. Take out 35% of OA through CPFIS before HDB wipe out the OA if HDB loan and take longest period
4. Take out OA for unit trust before HDB wipe out the OA if HDB loan and take longest period
5. Any more?
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