Viz Branz

[dydx]

Books Closure Date for the coming $0.02/share 3rd-Interim dividend for FY12 (ending 30Jun12) has been set for 12Mar12, and the dividend will be paid on 23Mar12.....
http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/V...400282768/$file/BCD-1Mar12.pdf?openelement
The 'XD' Date should be on 8Mar12 (next Thurday).

Assuming Viz Branz would continue the tradition and pay out a Final dividend for FY12 in Nov12, there could well be another interim dividend in-between. Or am I dreaming?

[valuehunter]

What a pleasant surprise esp since this has come hot on the heels of the 1 cent / share dividends only recently declared. This perhaps can be seen as a vote of confidence in the near and midterm cashflow of the underlying business... Early shareholders have good reason to be happy that management seems willing to share profits with minority holders.

Perhaps an important question to ask is whether the share price is still undervalued, bearing in mind the underlying business is still poised to grow further and that the coffee drinking culture in china is still not fully fledged yet. The development and entrenchment of such a culture should be aided by the continued expansion of starbucks in china and the rising affluence of its population. Of course, current and potential investors will need to perform the necessary due diligence.

[VestedInterest]

Is this the reason for the 2 cent increase in the share price yesterday? Will this complicate the share transfer process?

[dydx]

Perhaps an important question to ask is whether the share price is still undervalued, bearing in mind the underlying business is still poised to grow further and that the coffee drinking culture in china is still not fully fledged yet.

Based on Viz Branz's last done (2Mar12) share price of $0.365 and latest 355.0m outstanding issued shares, market cap. now stands at $129.6m. When I compare this number against Viz Branz's current annual revenue of aprox. $182.4m (2x of 1H-FY11's $91.175m) and NP of approx. $18.6m (2x of 1H-FY11's $9.275m), I feel this is still quite an acute under-pricing situation by Mr Market. The derived current-year PER of approx. 7x is simply still too low for an established FMCG business which is growing its revenue steadily at a rate of approx. 10%p.a. and its NP at an even faster rate. IMHO, a current-year PER of 10x appears more appropriate.

A comparison with Super Group or other companies engaged in similar lines of business may throw out some useful pointers on my above guess.

[dydx]

Checked my bank account this morning and noted a very nice credit from Viz Branz's $0.01/share 2nd-Interim dividend. I am totally happy!

I now look forward to the coming even bigger double-size $0.02/share 3rd-Interim dividend to be paid on 23Mar12.

[dydx]

Today (8Mar12) is the 1st market-day Viz Branz has gone 'XD' for the coming $0.02/share 3rd-Interim dividend. For such a situation, usually Mr Market would mark down the share price by at least the full dividend amount, and transaction volume would be thin until the share price has fallen enough, before serious buyers would want to come in again.

I am actually quite pleased to note the active buying this morning until now (1248 hrs) and the relatively high volume transacted of 545 lots so far, as well as the share price holding nicely at the $0.355 level - just $0.015 below yesterday's closing share price of $0.37.

Let's hope the re-rating of Viz Branz towards its justified fair value will continue.

[freedom]

if external player(manager buyout would be very different) is to buy Viz Branz out, what kind of valuation would Viz Branz be?

Personally, I would look at price/sale ratio. price/earning is not exactly applied mainly because the synergy between the new buyer and Viz Branz would reduce the cost of Viz Branz(e.g. better raw material purchase/better inventory management/cheaper sales/distribution cost and other possible synergy) thus improve Viz Branz's earning substantially.

So if Super was to buy Viz Branz out, Super's price/sale ratio probably would apply to the valuation. If Nestle was to buy Viz Branz out, Nestle's price/sale ratio would apply.

For a simple valuation test, Super's price/sale is around (1.72 * 557 million / 440 million) = 2.2. So if Super was to buy Viz Branz out, a price tag of 2 * 200 = 400 million for Viz Branz would not be too unreasonable, i believe.

all the above just my own assumption only.

[psolhawk]

Latest development to the plot
http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/V...B00222B5E/$file/UpdateToShareholders_8Mar12.pdf?openelement

[MrValue]

Why would Ben want to force his father CKP to make a GO by writing to SIC and transfering shares to CKP within 5 days upon receipt of SIC's written judgement? Since Ben has already stated that he's not acting in concert, guess SIC is unlikely to grant CKP exemption from GO.
Even if CKP can't afford the GO, can't he just offer a v low price and let the GO fail? He'll need to pay the investm bankers of course, but that fees could be easily covered with his share of Viz Branz's dividend right? Why is he so afraid of getting a written judgement from SIC and receiving the shares as per the settlement agreement?

Maybe Ben is trying to force his father to sell out? Many ???

[dydx]

I wonder who bought the 1661 lots transacted today (8Mar12) between $0.35 and $0.36 - mostly at $0.355 - and with many of the transactions of big lots??

We should bear in mind that between the 2 of them the father and son now hold a total of 261,159,002 Viz Branz shares, which amount to a total combined 73.33% interest as at 19Sep11 (the cut-off date of the Shareholdings Statistics in the FY11 AR).

As a result of the company buying back 1111 lots from 18Nov11 to 1Dec11, the 2's total combined interest has risen to 73.57% as at 1Dec11. And we should also count the some $10.0m shares - another approx. 2.86% - held by other members of the Chng Family and other directors.

And we should note that the father and son are now fully cashed up, having received (including the $0.02/share 3rd-Interim dividend declared recently) an estimated total $9.92m in the last 4 dividends.

Perhaps I am just dreaming, but it appears to me that we may have here a stage for the Chng Family to privatize Viz Branz?