Value Investor?

[Temperament]

No! The perfect diversification is to buy an index of the whole market you are interested in. Vanguard group can help you to do that for many markets. i think WB has prepared the bulk of his estate is going to do something like that.

[corydorus]

By the way who are the very people who decide the Index composition and changes ? Aren't they are the best Fund Manager then. LOL

[Temperament]

Index composition is to capture the "whole market".

[Big Toe]

There is no hard answer to what sufficient diversification means.
An extreme example would be someone who places all his money into one public listed company Versus
Someone who places a small portion of his money every year in an ETF that tracks global indices.
Most of us would be comfortable somewhere in between both the extremes.

Not sure about else where but in the U.S., there exists different ETFs even for a specific industry, the composition and weightage of the different companies within the industry is different. So even in ETFs, you will need to do some homework. So, if you think that a certain industry is going to do well within your planned holding period, go for the ETF that tracks that industry.

[paullow]

however many stocks one has or even if he buys ETF monthly or yearly, to me, it still would be one investment cat.

Let me explain:

to many folks out there, perhaps some 80% of singaporeans, their HDB forms their biggest asset. This could be worth say 500k to 1m, depending on location and size.

Now,assuming this is fully paid off, if one is talking about his portfolio of $200k, this portfolio could form up anywhere from 20% to 40% of their entire asset.

Even if he has a basket of 20 or 30 stocks consisting of different companies in different industries to manage their risks, we should not forget that 60-80% of their asset is still one thing, ie their home!

Of course, when their portfolio grows to say 5m, this figure will probably dwarf their home cost. Having said that, when that happens, many might give up their HDB for a condo or a small landed in a land scarce Singapore.

[opmi]

Lee, the value investor?

趣BLOGBLOG：超人做嘢　港樓瀨嘢 - 股榮


■超人（中）談樓市，最後一句「我只能夠講到咁多」，可算是可圈可點。　許頌明攝
長實（001）與和黃（013）合併分拆地產業務，相信是繼千禧年小小超以盈動蛇吞象香港電訊後，最震撼的財經併購消息。坊間多解讀為遷冊，或是超人要釋放更多價值，但由兩間公司過去數年部署至股權變化，股榮直覺相信，超人對香港地產，已投下不信任一票，當然本港樓市今年不會崩圍，但未來數年，大家要有心理準備，樓價會出現不升反跌的格局。


前日軍師霍建寧解釋，何解選擇目前重組，拋低一句耐人尋味的說話，「係突然間有人咁叻仔諗到計，諗到就說服李生去做……半年前開始度橋。」股榮最欣賞超人的一點，是他「好忍得」，遇上重大決定，價錢唔啱、時機未到，他寧願等，但一出手，就是雷霆萬鈞，令對手無從招架。


超人對上一次增持長實，已經要數至2013年4月，接近兩年從來沒有在市場增持，這不是睇淡股價，相信就是為上周五宣佈的合併分拆作準備工夫，因此霍建寧話突然有人咁叻仔諗到計，這個人恐怕就是超人自己。而所謂半年前開始度橋，亦怕是自欺欺人，關乎集團策略大重組，超人是不會打沒把握的仗，沒有兩年時間做足準備工夫，不是超人的手段。


李嘉誠79年奪取和黃，匯豐在背後大力支持是事實，但如何運用和黃的資源，獲得最大的利益，才是關鍵。和黃當年最重要資產，就是紅磡黃埔船塢，八十年代初，超人與港英政府商討重建的補地價事宜，適逢地產市場熾熱，政府要求補地價28億元，相當於和黃三、四年總盈利，超人寧拖不簽。及後因香港前途問題，地產市道崩潰，84年李嘉誠趁中英簽署聯合聲明不久、地產市場未恢復之際，與港府重傾補地價，最終以4億元補地價、另加道路建築費2億元達成協議，相比兩年前的28億元，超人「幫李日日慳」其實早就煉成。


黃埔花園由85年至89年陸續落成，期內總收入粗略達100億元，扣除40億元發展成本，奠定地產王國的重要里程碑。


八十年代另一宗世紀收購，就是和黃收購港燈。84年，英資怡和因早年進取買地令負債纍纍，曾向和黃洽購持有的港燈。當年以高市價三成洽售，但李嘉誠以低市價一成還價。拖了超過一年，85年初怡和終於答應以低市價13%出讓。由會面、協議、諮詢及簽署，只花了17個小時後，李嘉誠就決定以29億現金收購35%港燈股權。

長地「二奶」角色已成形
翻閱舊剪報，印象最深的是超人這番話：「過去兩年，我不停地研究港燈這家公司，差不多用工作上一半的時間在策劃公司未來發展方面，一有機會便可作出迅速的決定，港燈由開始商談到正式簽文件，時間共17個小時，除去睡眠的8小時，實際只有9小時，我為何能在這麼短時間，決定一項如此重大的投資？原因是港燈是我心目中的公司，一早已掌握全部資料，機會來時我就知道怎樣做。」


由2010年開始，長和系投資海外公用業務超過千億元，反觀地產投資乏善可陳，2012年尾買入馬鞍山地皮，餓地餓足近兩年，至去年底才「唔覺意」投得深水埗重建項目，去年賣樓豐收，只是四、五年前買落的麵粉。重組後，李氏持有長和及長地的股權，同樣約30%，較目前透過持有長實逾43%、間接持有和黃，牌面上兩間新公司一樣揸咁重，但長地「二奶」角色已經成形，且有銀彈在手，未來增持長和的機會，料遠高於長地。


近數年超人睇樓市，慣性指：「有能力付首期，用來自住，幾時都可以買樓，不會蝕底」，但睇番轉頭，卻是相當準繩。對於今年樓市，超人日前指：「樓市啊，呵呵呵，我睇呢，安定嘅……今日好多新界地方，係建築費貴過地價。我只能夠講到咁多。」

[nsengkia]

By logic, pyramid up is the safer route to take. Then please explain why the GURUS don't really practise it.

May have something to do with them having too much money. When the market turns and a big fish buys in - the market tends to run away from the big fish. The only way they can get large enough amounts to move the dial is to pyramid down. IMHO that is an advantage for us (until we become big fishes as well )

[CityFarmer]

There is no hard answer to what sufficient diversification means.
An extreme example would be someone who places all his money into one public listed company Versus
Someone who places a small portion of his money every year in an ETF that tracks global indices.
Most of us would be comfortable somewhere in between both the extremes.

Not sure about else where but in the U.S., there exists different ETFs even for a specific industry, the composition and weightage of the different companies within the industry is different. So even in ETFs, you will need to do some homework. So, if you think that a certain industry is going to do well within your planned holding period, go for the ETF that tracks that industry.

I assume the "sufficient" isn't subjective. It may not necessary to be a hard number, but ranges of number. It shouldn't be the more the merrier. It should work as insurance, which come with a cost of premium. We should avoid overly insured.

[opmi]

^^ Stanley Druckenmiller pyramid up. Taught so by Soros.

On what he's learned from George Soros: "Perhaps the most significant is that it's not whether you're right or wrong that's important, but how much money you make when you're right and how much you lose when you're wrong ... Soros has taught me that when you have tremendous conviction on a trade, you have to go for the jugular. It takes courage to be a pig ... As far as Soros is concerned, when you're right on something, you can't own enough."

[Temperament]

[Image: 2014-Distrib-4percent-Flexible-Table-4_zpsbc08d2ac.jpg][/URL][/img]

Can the above table use for index investing as B&H, diversification as insurance and Flexible safe retirement @ 4 % yearly withdrawal at the beginning of each year. The last column S & P 500 is the selected for passive income for retiree or FF man.

If this index investing is repeatable why bother with any other type of investments?

Any one like to challenge to beat this indexing or find where are the weaknesses or loopholes?
Today is it possible to do with STI ETF?