Why Greece's spillover across euro area will probably be contained this time

[BlueKelah]

Yah so greeks should just mai tuz liao and declare bankruptcy and use back drachma loh. Since if they continue using euro they will have a big unsustainable debt.

could hardly call enjoying all the credit from ECB a poverty trap.

sent from my Galaxy Tab S

[opmi]

Already so jialat liao the greek people still want to continue playing poker with the germans? Just like one who has maxed out on credit cards and have banks chasing for payment, they can either follow the banks payment terms and pay back longer term or declare bankruptcy loh.

Just cut all the pensions should bring them back into budget surplus. Layoff excess gov workers, keep only core workers like police and fireman and teachers and healthcare worker. Prime minister and cabinet can cut their own pay.

Of course no one in greece seems to want to take the responsibility. Well actually 39% did, but in a democratic country thats the minority.

sent from my Galaxy Tab S

poor analogy. Show me a bank that will lend you money when you owe them money and are clearly broke.

[sgd]

Already so jialat liao the greek people still want to continue playing poker with the germans? Just like one who has maxed out on credit cards and have banks chasing for payment, they can either follow the banks payment terms and pay back longer term or declare bankruptcy loh.

Just cut all the pensions should bring them back into budget surplus. Layoff excess gov workers, keep only core workers like police and fireman and teachers and healthcare worker. Prime minister and cabinet can cut their own pay.

Of course no one in greece seems to want to take the responsibility. Well actually 39% did, but in a democratic country thats the minority.

sent from my Galaxy Tab S

poor analogy. Show me a bank that will lend you money when you owe them money and are clearly broke.

I think there's no more fat to cut, those remaining civil servants I imagine will not dare to 'eat snake' or surf internet during ofc hr because there's an ongoing 'headcount list' and slightest excuse gets you canned and nobody wants to risk that when jobs are so scarce.

You see the masses of unemployed their main occupation everyday is queuing 8 hrs waiting at atm machine hoping to take out 65 euros. who want's to risk their job for that?

[Big Toe]

Whichever direction ECB/IMF/Greece takes, it will be a long drawn process of negotiations.
They probably discuss a short term stop gap measure followed by a longer term solution.
It has been like that and will continue to be like that.

It seems more and more clear that all stakeholders want to talk and negotiate.
Europe's greatest strength is also its biggest weakness, to discuss and reach a consensus.
ECB/IMF/Germany probably would not take unilateral action for a grexit.

They probably have discussed the scenarios by which a country
have to leave the euro but I do think we have not come to that point yet. Germans in general are extremely detailed and careful in what they do and they tend to take a bit more time. A hasty decision is unlikely. A grexit may create more problems than it solves.

What this means for me is I will very slowly nibble some stocks as stocks have been beaten down somewhat. Maybe buy back some which i sold off previously since valuation looks slightly more attractive now with no change in fundamentals.

[greengiraffe]

Greek crisis: Europe pushes Greece for debt plan
THE AUSTRALIAN JULY 08, 2015 9:30AM

Jacquelin Magnay

European Correspondent

Europe pushes Greece for debt plan

A flurry of high powered meetings and the encouragement of the United States has failed to produce a definitive answer to the Greek financial crisis after the Greek government came to Brussels armed only with ideas and not concrete proposals.

Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras was seeking a creative bridging loan to keep Greek banks afloat while longer term negotiations would be undertaken but the European leaders have instead demanded the government deliver a concrete bailout proposal by Thursday at the latest with a further meeting of the European Union leaders this Sunday.

German chancellor Angela Merkel was at her most pessimistic after the talks and said preconditions for a resumption of a new bailout programme was not there, stressing time was running out.

European council president Donald Tusk said there was only five days to finalise a new deal.

“Our inability to find agreement may lead to the bankruptcy of Greece and the insolvency of its banking system. And for sure, it will be most painful for the Greek people,” Tusk said.

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“I have no doubt that this will affect all of Europe, also in the geopolitical sense.

“If someone has any illusion that it will not be so, they are naive.

“The stark reality is that only have five days to find the ultimate agreement.”

On deciding to call all 28 EU leaders to Brussels, Tusk said, for the bloc, it “is maybe the most critical moment in our history”.


Europe pushes Greece for debt plan

There had been suggestions a flurry of high powered meetings and the encouragement of the United States may produce a creative bridging loan to keep Greek banks afloat while longer term negotiations are undertaken.

This morning (AEST) in Brussels, the Greek government belatedly requested a financial deal through the European Stability Mechanism — which still has to be decided upon.

But to overcome the serious liquidity issue in Greece and the imminent collapse of the Greek banks if there is no assistance, the European Central Bank may be asked to step in.

There are suggestions that the ECB could provide profits from its securities market programme to help keep the Greek financial system afloat for a short time, perhaps until the end of the month.

Tsipras took a phone call from the US president Barack Obama shortly before meeting German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French president Francois Hollande and the other eurozone leaders.

The timing of the US call would not have been lost on the Europeans, although their patience with the Greek delays and maneuverings had quickly run out. A Greek official said Obama expressed hope for a positive outcome. Obama had also spoken to Merkel. Presidential hopeful Hillary Clinton has also urged a resolution: “I want to see a resolution. At the end of the day, it is up to the Greek people to decide what they’re going to do.”

Inexplicably, after all of the blustering, posturing, and a crushing anti-austerity referendum, earlier in the day the new Greek finance minister Euclid Tsakalotos and Tsipras arrived in Brussels without written or concrete proposals to present to European finance counterparts. Instead, Tsakalotos was pictured after the eurogroup finance meeting, described by some as a waste of time, holding some handwritten notes on hotel notepaper, including a memorable line “no triumphalism”.

Tsakalotos was told by the group of finance ministers to come back later today Australian time with a detailed proposal, which Greek media is reporting might be a two year €18bn loan through an European Stability Mechanism — a smaller request than that last made of June 30 for a €29.1bn three year deal. At one stage of the series of meetings it appeared there may have been a breakthrough to allow Greece to stabilise its economy and keep the banks afloat so that further negotiations could thrash out a third bailout.

But its clear the European creditors are tired of the delaying tactics of the Greeks. Mrs Merkel said the bridging loan suggestion didn’t come into deliberations because the creditors want a longer term solution

Greece has been warned that funds available through the European Stability Mechanism are tightly controlled and the process to make the money available would take several weeks, rather than the days needed to prevent a social catastrophe in Greece, and to make a €3.5bn debt payment to the European Central Bank. Default on that ECB payment is seen as critical because the ECB could withdraw its €89bn liquidity causing a collapse of the Greek banking system.

In Greece, the Minister for administrative reform Giorgos Katrougalos said it was technically impossible for banks to open this week and warned that the banking system was on the verge of disaster. He told Greek radio: “Decisions need to be taken this week so that banks can open. Not open this week -technically, this is probably impossible- but they can start the process. The economy cannot work without the banks. I hope it will not take weeks. It is not possible to go more than one week with closed banks, we are already late.”

[greengiraffe]

O$P$ at at sovereign level...

As it is legal binding, all the wayang kulit (noise) is essential so that an irresponsible free rider can be legally held to task and booted out of a system.

The ongoing episodes is merely part of a predicted script and surely by now all the lenders involved would have adequately provided for their exposure to a borrower that has already ran road and perhaps return like our former NTUC high flying ex MP Peh Yew Kok as there is nowhere to hide:

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/sing...37252.html

[sgd]

by the looks of the amounts less than 100k in 1979 is a lot then but cheap by today standards, whatever money he took long ago all gone already maybe no more money that's why surrender. if he had just gone to jail be out by 86 or 84 for good behavior instead of running and hiding over 36 years.

Now 80 year old already fastest trial also take 1 year remand till then after that go in sit for 7 minus 2 years for good behavior+holiday by then 86yo dunno can still live that long or not.

[BlueKelah]

Get ready for a grexit, imho global markets have not really price the negative effects in yet despite no vote as everyone still expect some resolution of the negotiations.

Five more day for tsipras to surrender and say yes or start printing drachmas

Sent from my Galaxy Tab S

[corydorus]

I don't think Greece is ready to even print. And considering their Bloated Civil Service but extreme slack performance it may takes them years to get ready.
They will basically run out of money or currency even to eat as there is no money in the bank. The impact will be horrendous to Greece if EU ignore them and just kick them out. Maybe they can ration out Olive Oil ... as food. Wait ... they don't even want to process themselves. Is exported to Italy before importing them back !

My guess is they will have to adopt Euro as their currency and lose the monetary control. Basically their banks will start from Ground Zero. Any action by EU to help is now on compassionate ground. Will their Pensions be all lost ? god know !

[sgd]

with the new mandate I read greece want 30% haircut and 20 years before they start paying back.

I think they will get some economic hit men to kill him maybe plane crash.