Low Keng Huat (Singapore)

[NTL]

Hi Gurus

Need some advice if you may be so kind as to give. Do you think I should keep or sell LKH? I only have 2000 shares. Will there be any special dividend any time soon.

Thank you so much.

Devastated by China Oilfield... really bad .... bleed and transfused until blood bank ran out of supply. Now have dead.

I think no one here will give buy/sell decision advices so directly. You have to use your best judgement based on whatever you can read here, or eksewhere.

Everyone made bad decisions, and I have plentiful of it. In Chinese, there is this term, 留着青山在不怕没柴烧. So just make sure you don't get burn until you cannot recover. Take China Oilfield as a learning experience, see what you can do in the future to prevent such things from happening.

[$wise]

The real construction sector is no longer lucrative.
But the real good money is in Property Development.

The general property market is artificially sluggish with policies targeting mainly on housing.
But this does not mean there is no more opportunities.
Funds need to go somewhere......

Residential property developments will inevitably have to take their fair share of the challenges ahead.
But Commercial property developers are silently creating miracles, one after another.
Just to name a few: Alex Ctr, Oxley Tower, Junction Nine, Havelock ll & Paya Lebar Square.

China listed counters aside, the construction counters are probably the ones with the steepest discount on our mainboard.

Above all, if we must factor in :kindness of management for minority, generous Dividend Policy & Consistency for last decade,
we probably have only a few to consider as a sound & savvy investor.

LKH has them all…
If you are selling your LKH or CES, where else can your funds go ?

[davidoh]

Just to share, I dipped my toes a little bit into LKH recently based on views from Value Buddies. Last year's earnings were poor compared to FY13 which was its best year (over last 5), but even then, they paid 3 cents dividends, and my estimate of the Margin of Safety based on FY14 results was pretty high - so I felt safe to get in when market is not enthusiastic. My view is that if we look beyond year to year performance (which is always lumpy for property developers), it should do well in the medium term. Just my two cents worth, but I hasten to reinforce CityFarmer's advice that depending on DIY analysis is still the best.

Thank you Skyn.

I am trying to liquidate. China Oilfield literally killed me. I lost all my savings (six figure sum and first number is not 1). I subscribed to the IPO but it kept falling so I averaged down. Until no more bullets. Hoping one day it will turn around because I believe the company's information about their commitment and what they are doing. Recently I found out they were BS. Worse they now want to close shop. When IPO was 60 cents and now 0.004cents. I am not crying as it is already very long time ago. Lesson learnt and hoping for some mentor to learn from.

It is easy to read books, I read a lot including intelligent investor and so on. So much theory and most of the time it does not work.

Difficult to make back. Many gurus here are complaining not making enough but here the stupid one, is trying to break even all these years.

Thanks for listening.

I am still learning and appreciate any mentor's advice.

[CityFarmer]

Thank you Skyn.

I am trying to liquidate. China Oilfield literally killed me. I lost all my savings (six figure sum and first number is not 1). I subscribed to the IPO but it kept falling so I averaged down. Until no more bullets. Hoping one day it will turn around because I believe the company's information about their commitment and what they are doing. Recently I found out they were BS. Worse they now want to close shop. When IPO was 60 cents and now 0.004cents. I am not crying as it is already very long time ago. Lesson learnt and hoping for some mentor to learn from.

It is easy to read books, I read a lot including intelligent investor and so on. So much theory and most of the time it does not work.

Difficult to make back. Many gurus here are complaining not making enough but here the stupid one, is trying to break even all these years.

Thanks for listening.

I am still learning and appreciate any mentor's advice.

The six figure sum losses is bad enough, and learning the wrong lesson, is worse, IMO.

The theories in good book work, otherwise VB will not survive till now.

[ValueMushroom]

The basis of fundamental analysis is that the figures reported shall be credible. So currently I only deal in Singapore companies.

[Jacmar]

Thank you Skyn.

I am trying to liquidate. China Oilfield literally killed me. I lost all my savings (six figure sum and first number is not 1). I subscribed to the IPO but it kept falling so I averaged down. Until no more bullets. Hoping one day it will turn around because I believe the company's information about their commitment and what they are doing. Recently I found out they were BS. Worse they now want to close shop. When IPO was 60 cents and now 0.004cents. I am not crying as it is already very long time ago. Lesson learnt and hoping for some mentor to learn from.

It is easy to read books, I read a lot including intelligent investor and so on. So much theory and most of the time it does not work.

Difficult to make back. Many gurus here are complaining not making enough but here the stupid one, is trying to break even all these years.

Thanks for listening.

I am still learning and appreciate any mentor's advice.

Well if it is any consolation, you are not the only one losing 6 figure sums. I have probably have lost more than you over the years on S-chips in those days. Now I have swear them off...except CMPH. Treat it as expensive tuition fees. Important thing is not to give up especially after you have paid the expensive fees. As for me I have learnt a lot and have recover more than I have lost and make more. Stay on VB and learnt as there are some gurus(over time you will know they are) here but you still need to do your own independent thinking. Over time you will sharpen your skills and in meantime follow WB and don't lose money; meaning don't be greedy. It's ok to miss multi-baggers but just don't lose money.
Good luck

[specuvestor]

Just to share, I dipped my toes a little bit into LKH recently based on views from Value Buddies. Last year's earnings were poor compared to FY13 which was its best year (over last 5), but even then, they paid 3 cents dividends, and my estimate of the Margin of Safety based on FY14 results was pretty high - so I felt safe to get in when market is not enthusiastic. My view is that if we look beyond year to year performance (which is always lumpy for property developers), it should do well in the medium term. Just my two cents worth, but I hasten to reinforce CityFarmer's advice that depending on DIY analysis is still the best.

Thank you Skyn.

I am trying to liquidate. China Oilfield literally killed me. I lost all my savings (six figure sum and first number is not 1). I subscribed to the IPO but it kept falling so I averaged down. Until no more bullets. Hoping one day it will turn around because I believe the company's information about their commitment and what they are doing. Recently I found out they were BS. Worse they now want to close shop. When IPO was 60 cents and now 0.004cents. I am not crying as it is already very long time ago. Lesson learnt and hoping for some mentor to learn from.

It is easy to read books, I read a lot including intelligent investor and so on. So much theory and most of the time it does not work.

Difficult to make back. Many gurus here are complaining not making enough but here the stupid one, is trying to break even all these years.

Thanks for listening.

I am still learning and appreciate any mentor's advice.

Theories gives us the foundation of how the playground works. It's like the rules in a soccer match.

But that doesn't mean people play strictly to the rules. That's when reality sets in that you can't be a good player just by reading rules and watching people play or reading about soccer.

Reading books help us to understand the market mechanics and most of all how others apply these mechanics. But to me the most important is how theories can fit into observation, not observation fit into theories.

I assume you are still young and I too had gone through that stage. Worse still my thesis was absolutely right yet the market went the other way. I learnt what is market expectation the hard way.

One of the best books I have read is Market Wizards. It helps to understand there are many roads to Rome. Choose and EXPERIMENT with the one that fits your temperament.

And yes I agree with the rest that you must do your own homework. Then you will know when you should average down or when you should cut loss. That's basically where you lacked in the China Oilfield experience. That's of course assuming one can be rational and not be stubborn/ fall in love/ egoistic. It takes time and painful experiences to tone down the emotions.

My 2 cents

[yeokiwi]

Hi David, I had downloaded the China Oil Fields Prospectus.

Some prelim ratio,
http://chinaoilfield.listedcompany.com/misc/ipo.pdf

based on FY2006
IPO price SGD0.60
NAV RMB0.91
EPS 13.4 (post IPO)
PE 22

My personal opinion is that it is difficult to justify that this is a value stock at all.
Value investing is both quantitative and qualitative. However, if quantitative figures are not enticing, I will prefer to give it a miss.

[nsengkia]

It is easy to read books, I read a lot including intelligent investor and so on. So much theory and most of the time it does not work.

In the book Winning the Loser’s Game, the author likens investing to tennis. He observes that there are two games of tennis played in the world. There is the game played by pros and elite amateurs and there is the game played by the other 99 percent of us.

In pro tennis, about 80 percent of the points are “won”. That is, one player hits the ball in such a way that the opponent cannot hit it back. An ace; a passing shot; a forced error. Watch tennis on TV sometime, and you’ll see what I mean. You win this form of tennis by attacking the game and your opponent. This game of tennis is a “winner’s game.”

In the tennis everyone else plays, the vast majority of the points are “lost”. We double fault; we hit it into the net, trip over our shoelaces or simply miss the ball. On rare occasions, we knock a good one by somebody. You win this form of tennis by avoiding mistakes and by just keeping the ball in play. This game of tennis is a “loser’s game.” If you try too hard to hit brilliant shots every time, you will lose the match. (See more at: http://www.creeksidepartners.com/winning/)

You need to know yourself whether you are good enough and can spare enough effort to play the "winner's game". Personally, I know that I am not so I play the "loser's game" i.e. high diversification akin to "value indexing".

[slowandsteady]

That was a nice read.

I guess it's a very "defensive" way of investing for me - mainly looking at discount from liquidation value to derive a margin of safety. I consider the property sector a core industry for me in terms of portfolio allocation, because it's rather suited to my philosophy - it's very easy to derive a rather accurate conservative RNAV, by taking into account sold units vs cost. And I keep rotating into the ones with the best MOS, with a slight preference for those with obvious "catalysts" coming up (though MOS is by far the top most consideration).

I see a couple of risks with this strategy - forced liquidation due to 1) personal finance issues and 2) corporate actions (GO by majority shareholders). For 1), I try my best to keep a good control over it, never over extending. For 2), I guess this is just a risk I have to accept.

Honestly, it's quite a "chicken" strategy lol

It is easy to read books, I read a lot including intelligent investor and so on. So much theory and most of the time it does not work.

In the book Winning the Loser’s Game, the author likens investing to tennis. He observes that there are two games of tennis played in the world. There is the game played by pros and elite amateurs and there is the game played by the other 99 percent of us.

In pro tennis, about 80 percent of the points are “won”. That is, one player hits the ball in such a way that the opponent cannot hit it back. An ace; a passing shot; a forced error. Watch tennis on TV sometime, and you’ll see what I mean. You win this form of tennis by attacking the game and your opponent. This game of tennis is a “winner’s game.”

In the tennis everyone else plays, the vast majority of the points are “lost”. We double fault; we hit it into the net, trip over our shoelaces or simply miss the ball. On rare occasions, we knock a good one by somebody. You win this form of tennis by avoiding mistakes and by just keeping the ball in play. This game of tennis is a “loser’s game.” If you try too hard to hit brilliant shots every time, you will lose the match. (See more at: http://www.creeksidepartners.com/winning/)

You need to know yourself whether you are good enough and can spare enough effort to play the "winner's game". Personally, I know that I am not so I play the "loser's game" i.e. high diversification akin to "value indexing".