Singapore Economic News

[cyclone]

Strong hiring outlook in Singapore continues into 2Q18

By: Michelle Zhu
09/03/18, 11:00 am

SINGAPORE (Mar 9): Singapore’s employers are continuing to indicate a strong hiring outlook for 2Q18 with 16% intending to hire during the quarter ahead, according to data from workforce solutions company ManpowerGroup’s latest ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey (MEOS).

Out of the 695 employers surveyed in Singapore across seven industry sectors, 5% forecast a decrease in staffing levels while 72% anticipate no change over 2Q18.

It is however worth noting that workforce gains are anticipated across all industry sectors for the period amid a favourable hiring climate, which was observed by ManpowerGroup to have continued since 4Q17.

More details in https://www.theedgesingapore.com/strong-...inues-2q18

[cyclone]

MAS expected to tighten monetary policy in April: Reuters poll

By: Reuters
27/03/18, 02:29 pm

SINGAPORE (Mar 27): Singapore's central bank is expected to tighten monetary policy in April for the first time in six years, with economic growth solid and the labour market showing signs of improvement, a Reuters poll of economists found.

Nine of 15 analysts said their baseline expectation is for the Monetary Authority of Singapore to tighten its exchange-rate based policy at its semiannual policy decision, expected to be announced in mid-April.

The poll was conducted between March 21 to March 27, and was based on direct responses to Reuters queries as well as some research notes.

The nine analysts expect the MAS to tighten policy by slightly increasing the appreciation rate of the Singapore dollar's policy band, which is currently at zero percent.

More details in https://www.theedgesingapore.com/mas-exp...uters-poll

[karlmarx]

********************* 95Q1     00Q1     05Q1     10Q1     15Q1     18Q3

Singapore GDP                  28.9      38.1       50.3      76.7       102.7     116.1          (in billion SGD, at current market prices)

Household Networth          425       569        672       1,079     1,503     1,844          (in billion SGD)


As a Percentage to Total Assets:

Liabilities                         13.0       18.6       19.1       15.1       16.4       15.0
 
Currency & Deposits         16.4       16.5       16.5       18.4       19.7       19.7
 
Listed Securities               5.1         3.6         4.8         5.6         5.0         4.1
UT & Inv Funds                0.2         0.9         3.5         2.9         3.2         3.8
Life Insurance                  1.8         3.6         8.4         7.9         7.8         8.5
 
Public Housing                 24.8       29.3       24.7       24.7       21.9       19.3
Private Housing               33.9       24.6       21.1       23.0       23.8       24.3
 
CPF                                12.2       12.8       13.8       13.5       15.6       17.6

https://www.singstat.gov.sg/find-data/se...atest-data
https://www.singstat.gov.sg/find-data/se...atest-data


I was curious about how much of Singaporeans' wealth are in the stock market, so I pulled out some data dating back to 1995 from the Department of Statistics. I looked at the proportion of the different asset classes across time, by comparing each asset class against the total assets. The above is an abbreviated version, and percentages were derived from the absolute figures. The raw data is available from the links. 

The data is an aggregate, not average, of all households in Singapore. This means that certain household may have a higher/lower proportion in certain assets. For example, lower income groups are likely to have higher proportion in housing, than what is shown here.


Some observations:

1. Proportion of liabilities remains stable.

2. Proportion of wealth in private and public housing has fallen from almost 60% to about 43%. 

3. In place of housing, several other financial assets increased in proportion. The proportion of wealth in CPF has increased from 12.2% to 17.6%.

4. Proportion of wealth in life insurance has increased from 1.8% to 8.4% in 2005, and has remained at about that level.

5. Proportion of wealth in unit trust and investment funds increased from 0.2% to 3.5% in 2005, and has remained at about that level.

6. Proportion of wealth in currency and deposits has increased slightly from 16.4% to 19.7%.

7. Proportion of wealth in listed shares and securities has remained similar, decreasing slightly from 5.1% to 4.1%.


Some comments:

I believe much of the changes observed are heavily influenced by government policies; mainly the continued changes to CPF's offering and minimum sum, and the hawkish approach to multiple home ownership and its related debt. The liberalisation of the financial services industry, such as the introduction of bancassurance, must have also been instrumental in channelling more wealth into insurance and unit trust products. 

As for the listed stocks and securities, it seems that it wasn't a particularly popular asset class in 1995. And that doesn't seem to have changed since. This could be another evidence to support the argument that Singapore stocks are not richly valued.

Meanwhile, liabilities are at an acceptable level, cash proportion is at healthy. Singapore's household balance sheet looks alright. If Singapore can be considered to be in a good shape to withstand the carnage of the 2008 GFC, it can probably withstand the next financial crisis of similar magnitude, given its more balanced allocation of assets (i.e. less percentage of wealth in housing).

[karlmarx]

HOMEGROWN honestbee is the first startup to receive approvals to incorporate a large-scale retail operation as part of its industrial land's ancillary use - a move that suggests greater flexibility from the authorities in dealing with new business models.


In October last year, the startup launched habitat by honestbee, a tech-enabled, grocery and dining concept which occupies 60,000 square feet of space in an industrial building at Boon Leat Terrace.

honestbee is keen to roll out habitat - a marketplace comprising food and beverage concepts as well as a supermarket with an automated cashless checkout system and a robotic collection point - in the seven other Asian markets in which it operates.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/garage/...-concept-0

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The only thing that's novel is their automated checkout and collection. Does this work in increasing efficiency for the retailer, and convenience to the consumer? It will probably be clearer in the future, when customer volume is higher.

Apart from this, the idea of a large format huge variety retail experience is not new. And honestbee managed to get cheaper rents by locating this in an industrial building. I remember Mustafa tried doing this in the past, but was soon stopped by the authorities after a short period of operations. 

https://vulcanpost.com/645023/mustafa-ce...singapore/

I'm sceptical that honestbee's Boon Leat venture will be successful. But perhaps the lower rent expenses might just make it work.

[Big Toe]

I do know of a case of the authorities allowing F&B in a revamped industrial building. But it was an extremely long and painful struggle to get it approved. On the other hand, there have been more than a few cases where retail operations was asked to close as it was not approved under the B1 classification.

But as the retail/wholesale/supply chain is undergoing great change, the line is blurred. Factories and wholesalers are mostly selling direct to consumers as well as to retailers/supermarkets. You see value dollar bringing on massive quantities and selling it cheaply and cutting off the middleman. And the official distros can do nothing about it but lose market share.

It is also high time classifications change to allow greater flexibility. It is a great challenge to the government how rapid the rate of change is happening. If they regulators don't understand it, how will they be able to regulate it?

[opmi]

habitat by honestbee is like Marche with a supermarket.....nothing special

[dreamybear]

Economy is still good .....  I guess .....

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What a Singapore Strait traffic jam says about the world economy

Updated: Wednesday, 6 Mar, 2019 8:53pm

Flying into Singapore’s Changi Airport, visitors often remark on the hundreds of vessels, from supertankers to freighters, anchored along the coastline. Why are there so many? What are they doing there?

A decade ago, the global recession created a maritime car park of apparent ghost ships in the Singapore Strait – vessels sat idle in the world’s busiest shipping lane as companies were going bust or did not have enough business to justify their use.

Now there’s a similar stockpiling of ships in the strait, but it’s more like a traffic jam. A growing global population that is getting materially richer means a burgeoning demand for goods........

More details : https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/economics...ld-economy

[Behappyalways]

Lacking a national strategy, Malaysian ports lose out to Singapore
https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/l...-singapore

Economy is still good .....  I guess .....

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

What a Singapore Strait traffic jam says about the world economy

Updated: Wednesday, 6 Mar, 2019 8:53pm

Flying into Singapore’s Changi Airport, visitors often remark on the hundreds of vessels, from supertankers to freighters, anchored along the coastline. Why are there so many? What are they doing there?

A decade ago, the global recession created a maritime car park of apparent ghost ships in the Singapore Strait – vessels sat idle in the world’s busiest shipping lane as companies were going bust or did not have enough business to justify their use.

Now there’s a similar stockpiling of ships in the strait, but it’s more like a traffic jam. A growing global population that is getting materially richer means a burgeoning demand for goods........

More details : https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/economics...ld-economy

[Behappyalways]

NODX to the majority of the top markets decreased, except the US. The largest contributors to the NODX decline were Japan (-36.6%), Taiwan (-27.4%) and Hong Kong (-22.4%). NODX to emerging markets contracted by 21.9% mainly due to Latin America (-52.6%), the Caribbean (-72.9%) and CLMV (-17.0%).

Oil domestic exports dipped by 5.9% in March 2019, following the 10.6% decrease in the preceding month. Lower sales to Malaysia (-14.5%), Vietnam (-46.8%) and China (-10.3%) contributed the most to the decrease of oil domestic exports.

Singapore NODX fell 11.7% in March
https://sbr.com.sg/economy/news/singapor...7-in-march

[karlmarx]

Nanshan-backed W Capital has more than 10 IPO pipeline deals

HAVING built up the investment banking business in Tata Capital Markets and AMFraser Securities from scratch in his 16 years in investment banking, Wayne Lee decided last year to venture out with his own investment banking outfit.

The company, W Capital Markets, was one of three that received the issue manager and Catalist sponsor accreditation from the Singapore Exchange (SGX) earlier this week - no small feat considering that such firms are required to employ at least three professionals who meet stringent criteria in terms of their involvement in corporate finance advisory in listings in the 10 years prior to the application.

"How many initial public offerings (IPOs) have there been recently in Singapore? Twenty in 2017, and 15 in 2018. Since the penny stock saga in 2013, there hasn't been many IPOs to speak of, so to find these professionals that meet the requirements is very difficult. I needed to assemble this team, and in the market you can count with your fingers how many such professionals there are . . ."

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/compani...line-deals

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It looks like we may be seeing some s-chip listings, or hopefully, more local small cap listings.

It is also the second time, in as many months, that I've seen suggestions for more funds to invest in small cap stocks.

He also hopes that Singapore sovereign wealth investors can set up a fund here to focus on investing in the local equity market, particularly in the much neglected small- to mid-cap space, so as to bring back needed confidence to the market.

Yet, there are already quite a number of local boutique funds doing so. So why are they still 'undervalued?' Maybe, instead of pouring money into equity research, MAS should incentivise small caps to reward shareholders more generously.