Singapore Economic News

[corydorus]

Oil and Gas hit us badly. The low interest rate actually make it worst because it allow this inefficient industry to be prolonged instead of being restructured. What makes it even worst is the locals banks tapped retailers money cheaply to finance them. Maybe this Game needs to end.

A smile on my face when I read this. I wonder whether the same "inefficient industry" tag would be bestowed to the OnG industry when oil prices were running at 80-100usd/barrel?

I thought you might NOT be someone from OnG to speak like this. So, I went to your blog to check out the "About Me" section. I didn't find it but I happen to read your "Tray Collection Robot" post and was surprised with this comment "I am more empathy that many of this old folks need to work or spending few hours of their time a day trying to earn some pocket money. This is especially so for those who do not have enough saving. There is limited job alternatives for them." If you can practice empathy on old folks whom do not have enough savings, maybe it is good to be consistent and also take note of the many thousands of Singaporeans whom will prefer a prolong of the crisis by a helping hand from somewhere and maybe, just maybe might make it across the finishing line. (this crisis will resolves itself once oil price increases sufficiently. There is no "inefficient industry" per say)

Err I disagree with the connection. You are asking for consistency towards old folks and man in 30s/40s in OnG ? The article exactly mentioned creation of new jobs that some of the Ong folks would have moved into. I suggest Read "Who moved my Cheese"

[weijian]

Err I disagree with the connection. You are asking for consistency towards old folks and man in 30s/40s in OnG ? The article exactly mentioned creation of new jobs that some of the Ong folks would have moved into. I suggest Read "Who moved my Cheese"

Would you say something like this, if YOU (or maybe your brother or dad) is in the OnG industry? That is what I'm trying to say.

It is easy to stand on the moral high ground and nitpick at things in which you have NO vested interest (or in the words of Nassim Taleb, you have NO meat in this). It is easy for you to say to end the game, if you are not inside the game.

Disclosure: I am not from OnG, nor have relatives in OnG.

[corydorus]

Err I disagree with the connection. You are asking for consistency towards old folks and man in 30s/40s in OnG ? The article exactly mentioned creation of new jobs that some of the Ong folks would have moved into. I suggest Read "Who moved my Cheese"

Would you say something like this, if YOU (or maybe your brother or dad) is in the OnG industry? That is what I'm trying to say.

It is easy to stand on the moral high ground and nitpick at things in which you have NO vested interest (or in the words of Nassim Taleb, you have NO meat in this). It is easy for you to say to end the game, if you are not inside the game.

Disclosure: I am not from OnG, nor have relatives in OnG.

We are discussing on Singapore economy. And how this problem can turn around or how long it can last before it resolved. The cost structure is definitely not right with current oil price for sure. This is not sob box. So I am not sure what is the intent. Obviously there will be OnG pp here. So should we say continue to train RM to double up and catch all the depositors to buy issued junk retail bond and feed the beast ?!

[cyclone]

Please keep calm so that there are insightful exchange of ideas. Thanks.

[HitandRun]

 So should we say continue to train RM to double up and catch all the depositors to buy issued junk retail bond and feed the beast ?!

I never could understand the sympathy that some valuebuddies have for the accredited investors losing their pants on junk bonds while the very same folks might not spare any for folks that have invested in the like of Blumont, etc.

If I try to sell brand new iPhone 7s at SGD500 each, surely one would have asked, "What's the catch?"

Why does any accredited investor think that banks such as DBS would give free lounge access, limousine pick-up, talks and seminars, shorter bank queue, red packets sent to your home, etc. The KYC checklist nowadays looks like a thick manual. While these investors are happy to enjoy the perks, I suspect most of the same folks are too quick to condemn the bank when things fall apart. Let's see the KYC forms that they have signed to have an objective discussion!

[Porkbelly]

Can buddies here help me to find the dots?

We have Singstats that indicate a slowdown in economic activity in Singapore
We have analyst opinions
We have many buddies here that also state that a slowdown is in progress.

But I have friends & relatives who are still employed, (O&G/Airlines/Telcoms/Education/Bank/Insurance)
I see property prices stagnant, moving ever slightly.
I see COE prices steady.
I see crowds on weekends at the usual places
I am told of more Singaporeans travelling this year end for holidays

Of course the observations above is not empirical.
So, help me understand:

How does Singapore manage to record lower growth with every learned person
forecasting doom & gloom and yet no obvious signs seem to be apparent?

Will there ever be an obvious, observable scenario or its very well camouflaged?

[corydorus]

 So should we say continue to train RM to double up and catch all the depositors to buy issued junk retail bond and feed the beast ?!

I never could understand the sympathy that some valuebuddies have for the accredited investors losing their pants on junk bonds while the very same folks might not spare any for folks that have invested in the like of Blumont, etc.

If I try to sell brand new iPhone 7s at SGD500 each, surely one would have asked, "What's the catch?"

Why does any accredited investor think that banks such as DBS would give free lounge access, limousine pick-up, talks and seminars, shorter bank queue, red packets sent to your home, etc. The KYC checklist nowadays looks like a thick manual. While these investors are happy to enjoy the perks, I suspect most of the same folks are too quick to condemn the bank when things fall apart. Let's see the KYC forms that they have signed to have an objective discussion!

I think there are two faces in this. When one bring a fault on the bank. Is on certain aspect based on context. It doesn't mean the accredited investor is a victim 100%. The definition on them include a huge amount of people of different background and wealth. We are not reporter writing a balance article. We can even inject a 3rd face on regulatory side on what they could have done better. Current "accredited investor"  bar is too low and a blunt definition.

Many millionaires in our land is not due to businesses. They are workers who earn their first millions through many years of saving. Is this a SIN or jealousy by the have not ? Once those money is gone is gone. They can be a lot worst off than many retirees. Do we truly convince they know what they are stepping into when they buy those junk bonds that there is good risk they will lose all their money. Is this sympathy or injustice ?

[BlueKelah]

Can buddies here help me to find the dots?

We have Singstats that indicate a slowdown in economic activity in Singapore
We have analyst opinions
We have many buddies here that also state that a slowdown is in progress.

But I have friends & relatives who are still employed, (O&G/Airlines/Telcoms/Education/Bank/Insurance)
I see property prices stagnant, moving ever slightly.
I see COE prices steady.
I see crowds on weekends at the usual places
I am told of more Singaporeans travelling this year end for holidays

Of course the observations above is not empirical.
So, help me understand:

How does Singapore manage to record lower growth with every learned person
forecasting doom & gloom and yet no obvious signs seem to be apparent?

Will there ever be an obvious, observable scenario or its very well camouflaged?

You can look at some OBVIOUS broad indicators rather than anecdotal "word on the street"
Unemployment and GDP growth is getting worse, trending towards GFC levels.

Since GDP growth is stable we can expect that the economy is sideways. Hence it correlates well to stagnant property prices and COE prices. Crowds at makan places is not really that big an indicator and overseas holiday is also not really quantifiable.

But at the high end of spending, there is definitely a slowdown. Take a look at many VBs favourite The Hour Glass results u can see there is a spending pullback in the Top End already.

Just like low oil prices has a lag before those OnG start layoff and bankruptcy, a recession will also have a bit of a lag before it can be widely seen. Like if you were working in OnG and got laid off, it will take a while before you can't pay your mortgage/car loans and consider selling or for the bank to take it back. It will take some more time before many listings start to flood the market and affect property prices.

IIRC in 2007 the market hit a high and started going downhill slowly until the GFC in 2008, something similar could be happening again.

However with all those central bank and gov helping, singapore could just end up like the rest of the world with economy going sideways. 
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1) Unemployment figures are starting to tick up. 

http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/sing...28434.html

SINGAPORE: Amid weaker economic conditions, Singapore’s unemployment rate rose in the second quarter, according to the Ministry of Manpower (MOM).
The overall unemployment rate rose from 1.9 per cent in March to 2.1 per cent in June, figures released in the ministry’s half-quarterly Labour Market report showed. Among citizens, unemployment rose from 2.6 per cent to 3.1 per cent and rose from 2.7 per cent to 3 per cent among residents.
Unemployment rose further among residents aged 30 and above, and in particular, for those aged 50 and above, which saw unemployment rise for the fifth consecutive quarter. Those with higher qualifications were not spared, with unemployment rates among degree holders rising to their highest level since 2009. Total employment grew by 4,200, down from 13,000 in the previous quarter and 9,700 in the same quarter a year ago.

MORE WORKERS LAID OFF

A total of 4,800 workers were made redundant during the second quarter, up from 4,710 the previous quarter and 3,250 in the same period a year ago. This was the highest second-quarter redundancy since 2009, which saw 5,980 jobs shed, according to MOM.

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2) slowdown in GDP.

Singapore's economic growth slows sharply to 0.6% in Q3

SINGAPORE: For the third quarter of 2016, Singapore’s economy expanded by 0.6 per cent compared to the same period a year ago, advance estimates from the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) showed on Friday (Oct 14).

That is much lower than a forecast of 1.7 per cent by private sector economists surveyed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) last month, and marks a decrease from the previous quarter’s 2 per cent growth.

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[Big Toe]

Could not agree more with Blue Kelah.

As an individual(unless you run a large business providing non essential products and services) it is difficult to detect a slowdown.
The sample size is too small to make any conclusion and the conclusion derived may well be flawed. By the time the man on the street feels that economy is shrinking, we would have been well into the recession territory.

So the broad indicators are best to know the state of health our economy is. However, a lot of indicators are lagging indicators. I.e. we may have recovered slightly or gone further into negative territory by the time the data is out. So one quarter of data is not so accurate but when you have many quarters of negative growth Q On Q(i.e. wholesale and retail trade), then we should start to worry a bit. Couple that with most(if not all) indicators showing weakness, then it is quite clear we are in a slow down phase.

[Life is a game]

cheap credit now so u see everyone head floating on the sea. when credit tap is turn off then u see who is swimming naked.

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