Crowdsourcing - the vb portfolio

[CityFarmer]

my personal pref is to based my portfolio like a soccer team playing in the world cup, 11 main players, 4 subs.
during inital stages of the bull run, adopt a more attacking formation.
towards the end of the bull run( which i reckon is currently), be more defensive

Interesting. My analogy is farming. I am a city farmer, and stocks are the crops, and capital is the soil/farm. It is critical to select the right (quality) crops, and be patience before the harvests.

I don't limit myself to only one corps (not only on growth stock, but asset play etc), and applies different and suitable harvest (different strategies on different type of stocks). I reckon it helps to maximize the output of the soil/farm (capital)

I prepare for the climate changes, rather than predict and bet on luck. Of course, as all farmers have, no guarantee for harvest (profit).

(To join the fun )

[corydorus]

I like the farming analogy. How's the weather ?

[CityFarmer]

I like the farming analogy. How's the weather ?

Weather is highly unpredictable lately, and thus only those crops that can withstand bad weather were selected, even though production might be slightly lower.

[NTL]

my personal pref is to based my portfolio like a soccer team playing in the world cup, 11 main players, 4 subs.
during inital stages of the bull run, adopt a more attacking formation.
towards the end of the bull run( which i reckon is currently), be more defensive

Interesting. My analogy is farming. I am a city farmer, and stocks are the crops, and capital is the soil/farm. It is critical to select the right (quality) crops, and be patience before the harvests.

I don't limit myself to only one corps (not only on growth stock, but asset play etc), and applies different and suitable harvest (different strategies on different type of stocks). I reckon it helps to maximize the output of the soil/farm (capital)

I prepare for the climate changes, rather than predict and bet on luck. Of course, as all farmers have, no guarantee for harvest (profit).

(To join the fun )

Remember to do Crop Rotation so that the soil will remain fertile.

[CityFarmer]

my personal pref is to based my portfolio like a soccer team playing in the world cup, 11 main players, 4 subs.
during inital stages of the bull run, adopt a more attacking formation.
towards the end of the bull run( which i reckon is currently), be more defensive

Interesting. My analogy is farming. I am a city farmer, and stocks are the crops, and capital is the soil/farm. It is critical to select the right (quality) crops, and be patience before the harvests.

I don't limit myself to only one corps (not only on growth stock, but asset play etc), and applies different and suitable harvest (different strategies on different type of stocks). I reckon it helps to maximize the output of the soil/farm (capital)

I prepare for the climate changes, rather than predict and bet on luck. Of course, as all farmers have, no guarantee for harvest (profit).

(To join the fun )

Remember to do Crop Rotation so that the soil will remain fertile.

Yes, it is one of key techniques used for those crops with shorter harvest period.

[specuvestor]

^^ farming is a good analogy. Patience and hard work. It also mean you need to know your crops well to do crop rotation, and some crops don't need to

But also means you have to guesstimate the macro weather and prepare for locusts. As per your signature you also have to "time" your crops per se a lot of times planting too much at wrong time is a bigger killer for farmers than planting too little

Just a friendly nudge at your paradigm CF

[CityFarmer]

^^ farming is a good analogy. Patience and hard work. It also mean you need to know your crops well to do crop rotation, and some crops don't need to

But also means you have to guesstimate the macro weather and prepare for locusts. As per your signature you also have to "time" your crops per se a lot of times planting too much at wrong time is a bigger killer for farmers than planting too little

Just a friendly nudge at your paradigm CF

No problem. I like it.

I always prepare for the locusts and bad weather, without any guesstimate on the timing of their arrivals.

The signature said about Contrarian style of investing, and never involve any guesstimate of timing, right?

[specuvestor]

How to be contrarian if you dont care what the market or the weather is saying? if one is contrarian too "early" one is also likely to be hurt bad as well, and history are littered with those who bet against "madness of crowd". Buffett is no contrarian... he didn't call a buy when Bear Sterns hit. His timing is based on cashflow ROIC MOS. He builds in normalised return on companies that will be able to weather the storm and revert to mean 10 years down the road.

Frankly i dont believe in being contrarian for the sake of contrarian. Unless you are big time enough to be a catalyst. Finding good underappreciated business that have catalyst to turn around is different from being contrarian. K1 is a good case study of a sleepy stock to turnaround due to obvious catalysts, vs the current Hotung for eg. Without catalysts there is little diff between the 2 just based on numbers

[CityFarmer]

I do aware the differences in our views.

Prediction of catalyst, and bet on it, without betting on when it will materialized, isn't a "timing of market", IMO

Prediction of catalyst, and bet on its timing of materialization, is a "timing of market", IMO.

Otherwise value investing is all about "timing of market", since we do bet on materialization of IV i.e. the catalyst, in due course.

[thor666]

Evening ValueBuddies,

Welcome to the second quarter of Crowdsourcing dated 15/5/15.

Quick updates:
Bought VICOM at a high after Popular delisted to qualify dividends.
A lot of corporate action. Boustead to BP, CMHP Bonus 1 for 20 shares, adjusted as accordingly.

Total asset has grown 5.7% since inception with upcoming dividends of $1777 in the coming 3rd quarter. Personally I am very impressed.

I shall be sanguine and say that the next quarter will be difficult as it is a low, with probability of market correction creeping up.

Attached Spreadsheet for reference as usual.

If anyone is an Asset Manager and looking to start this Crowdsourcing asset management, let's talk. I think there is good opportunity here!