26-10-2014, 08:09 AM
Tough competition ahead in IVF sector
Health Trevor Hoey
737 words
22 Oct 2014
The Australian Financial Review
AFNR
English
Copyright 2014. Fairfax Media Management Pty Limited.
When provider of reproductive services, Virtus Health, listed on the ASX in mid-June its shares opened at $6.07, which was ahead of the initial public offering price of $5.68 but not all that outstanding given the hype surrounding the industry.
Much of the positive commentary surrounding the outlook for the IVF sector stems from organic growth likely to flow from the trend towards women staying in the workforce longer and having children later, when fertility rates are not as high.
However, the other key dynamic investors need to take into account is the competitive landscape. Granted, this is a niche industry dominated by only a few major players but there is already evidence of heightened competition for market share.
More recently this has come in the form of pricing pressure as diversified medical services provider Primary Health Care entered into the low-cost IVF market, establishing its first bulk-billing clinic in Sydney.
Analysts at Moelis highlighted Primary offered an average out-of-pocket expense for patients of $500, significantly lower than current providers.
Those providers include Virtus Health and Monash IVF Group which only listed in June. Its background prior to listing included the acquisition of a number of IVF providers in Victoria. The group's most prominent areas of representation are Victoria and Queensland, accounting for about 70 per cent of its clinics.
With 21 clinics across Australia, Monash is represented in every state except Western Australia and Tasmania. The group also entered Malaysia in January 2013 through the acquisition of KL Fertility Centre.
That region is mainly serviced by single-practitioner clinics and Moelis sees it as a potential growth driver in itself, as well as being a platform for expansion in the broader Asian region.
But Virtus has also taken aim at the Asian region with its first branded clinic anticipated to be operational by December. The group also acquired a 70 per cent stake in SIMS Clinic in Ireland. Virtus already has a strong share of the Australian market, being one of the two largest providers in NSW, Victoria and Queensland.
It conducts about 36 per cent of all IVF cycles performed in Australia, and its prominent position in NSW which accounts for nearly half of Australia's total IVF cycles is an important strategic advantage.Expansion should not be discounted
Primary Health Care's tilt at the sector coincided with Monash's entry, seemingly not just a coincidence.
With its large network of medical centres in Australia and the second-largest pathology provider, as well as being the third-largest diagnostic imaging provider, expansion into the IVF industry should not be discounted.
Analysts at Citi are of the view the recent selloff in its shares, which sees it trading well below its 12-month high of $5.06 and at a significant discount to the broker's 12-month price target of $5.77, represents an opportunity to enter the stock at an historically low multiple and an implied yield of about 5 per cent.
Looking at the valuations of the two listed specialised IVF players, Monash appears more compelling with a 2014-15 price-earnings multiple of about 13 compared with Virtus, which has a multiple of 17.
However, based on consensus estimates the latter has a superior growth profile, with analysts forecasting earnings per share growth of 20 per cent and 18 per cent in fiscal years 2015 and 2016 respectively.
By comparison, Moelis is expecting Monash to deliver EPS growth of about 15 per cent in both 2014-15 and 2015-16.
Though this makes Virtus appear the better option, analysts at Bell Potter were unimpressed with the company's 2013-14 result, noting both revenues and earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation were below prospectus forecasts.
The broker subsequently downgraded earnings for fiscal years 2015 and 2016 by 6 per cent and 7 per cent respectively, slashed its share price target from $8.66 to $7.25 and slapped a sell recommendation on the stock.
Bell Potter highlighted IVF cycles grew more slowly than expected and this was the key driver of the lower than anticipated revenues and earnings.
It also noted year-on-year volumes in the full service clinics declined for the first time.
Fundamentally, these businesses are underperforming expectations and while that remains the case expect further share price weakness.
Fairfax Media Management Pty Limited
Document AFNR000020141021eaam0002m
Health Trevor Hoey
737 words
22 Oct 2014
The Australian Financial Review
AFNR
English
Copyright 2014. Fairfax Media Management Pty Limited.
When provider of reproductive services, Virtus Health, listed on the ASX in mid-June its shares opened at $6.07, which was ahead of the initial public offering price of $5.68 but not all that outstanding given the hype surrounding the industry.
Much of the positive commentary surrounding the outlook for the IVF sector stems from organic growth likely to flow from the trend towards women staying in the workforce longer and having children later, when fertility rates are not as high.
However, the other key dynamic investors need to take into account is the competitive landscape. Granted, this is a niche industry dominated by only a few major players but there is already evidence of heightened competition for market share.
More recently this has come in the form of pricing pressure as diversified medical services provider Primary Health Care entered into the low-cost IVF market, establishing its first bulk-billing clinic in Sydney.
Analysts at Moelis highlighted Primary offered an average out-of-pocket expense for patients of $500, significantly lower than current providers.
Those providers include Virtus Health and Monash IVF Group which only listed in June. Its background prior to listing included the acquisition of a number of IVF providers in Victoria. The group's most prominent areas of representation are Victoria and Queensland, accounting for about 70 per cent of its clinics.
With 21 clinics across Australia, Monash is represented in every state except Western Australia and Tasmania. The group also entered Malaysia in January 2013 through the acquisition of KL Fertility Centre.
That region is mainly serviced by single-practitioner clinics and Moelis sees it as a potential growth driver in itself, as well as being a platform for expansion in the broader Asian region.
But Virtus has also taken aim at the Asian region with its first branded clinic anticipated to be operational by December. The group also acquired a 70 per cent stake in SIMS Clinic in Ireland. Virtus already has a strong share of the Australian market, being one of the two largest providers in NSW, Victoria and Queensland.
It conducts about 36 per cent of all IVF cycles performed in Australia, and its prominent position in NSW which accounts for nearly half of Australia's total IVF cycles is an important strategic advantage.Expansion should not be discounted
Primary Health Care's tilt at the sector coincided with Monash's entry, seemingly not just a coincidence.
With its large network of medical centres in Australia and the second-largest pathology provider, as well as being the third-largest diagnostic imaging provider, expansion into the IVF industry should not be discounted.
Analysts at Citi are of the view the recent selloff in its shares, which sees it trading well below its 12-month high of $5.06 and at a significant discount to the broker's 12-month price target of $5.77, represents an opportunity to enter the stock at an historically low multiple and an implied yield of about 5 per cent.
Looking at the valuations of the two listed specialised IVF players, Monash appears more compelling with a 2014-15 price-earnings multiple of about 13 compared with Virtus, which has a multiple of 17.
However, based on consensus estimates the latter has a superior growth profile, with analysts forecasting earnings per share growth of 20 per cent and 18 per cent in fiscal years 2015 and 2016 respectively.
By comparison, Moelis is expecting Monash to deliver EPS growth of about 15 per cent in both 2014-15 and 2015-16.
Though this makes Virtus appear the better option, analysts at Bell Potter were unimpressed with the company's 2013-14 result, noting both revenues and earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation were below prospectus forecasts.
The broker subsequently downgraded earnings for fiscal years 2015 and 2016 by 6 per cent and 7 per cent respectively, slashed its share price target from $8.66 to $7.25 and slapped a sell recommendation on the stock.
Bell Potter highlighted IVF cycles grew more slowly than expected and this was the key driver of the lower than anticipated revenues and earnings.
It also noted year-on-year volumes in the full service clinics declined for the first time.
Fundamentally, these businesses are underperforming expectations and while that remains the case expect further share price weakness.
Fairfax Media Management Pty Limited
Document AFNR000020141021eaam0002m