Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings)

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About 9 months back, YZJ order book was at a very low level and new shipbuilding orders was at lowest for about or close to 30 years! YZJ was telling shareholders/investors in their announcement and AR for maybe about a year.

Wasn't that the best time to bet on cyclical co. if you include valuation? Not hard to believe good time will be back, but well not many make the purchases a year ago or even 6 month back
I am glad I took the decision to transfer half of money in one of my core stock to YZJ last year based on its extremely low pb. On hindsight it was a correct decision. But only time will tell. YZJ is a highly cyclical stock and its stock price moves in extremes direction. Not really a good stock to buy and hold long term. Just my opinion.
The most recent data suggest buying came mostly from institutions. Retail investors are selling just when things are looking up. Which brings about the conviction part of the investment equation. A sound investment decision can be wrong for most of the time but will eventually be proven right given the right condition(s)/time frame.

And a speculative no logic investment decision can be very right for a long time and can make many very rich if they get the timing right. But it is impossible to get consistent returns as there is no sane basis for valuing it.

YZJ is a well managed company operating in a highly cyclical sector. And there is no AI enabled ship building start-up that is able to disrupt it as far as I know.
History suggests that labour intensive manufacturing activities will eventually shift to another country of lower cost or higher productivity. But I cannot imagine another country replacing the manufacturing capacity and productivity of China.

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