S'pore pays price of restructuring on inflation and growth fronts

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#21
Actually the politics comes from inertia. No point doing extra to get same remunerations if the incentive structure is not done properly. I think things will be different if people see a bonus ie a cut of the 1st year savings, if the project completes. Like Munger always say power of incentives

(30-10-2014, 10:06 AM)thor666 Wrote: I have no doubt the implementation of productivity is tedious. Where I work at, it took 2 yrs to drive a simple clean up effort costing less than 1k. A lot of politics were involved in between.
Before you speak, listen. Before you write, think. Before you spend, earn. Before you invest, investigate. Before you criticize, wait. Before you pray, forgive. Before you quit, try. Before you retire, save. Before you die, give. –William A. Ward

Think Asset-Business-Structure (ABS)
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#22
I have lunch in a food-court regularly, and have observed the promotion of "clean your table" exercise. From the cleaners to the junior executives, all are "promoting" with a clear objective in mind, "don't make it work" Tongue

I reckon the senior management didn't put up sufficient incentive for them to make it work. The cleaner might fear of job-lose, and junior executives might fear more work and uncertainties.

(30-10-2014, 10:42 AM)specuvestor Wrote: Actually the politics comes from inertia. No point doing extra to get same remunerations if the incentive structure is not done properly. I think things will be different if people see a bonus ie a cut of the 1st year savings, if the project completes. Like Munger always say power of incentives

(30-10-2014, 10:06 AM)thor666 Wrote: I have no doubt the implementation of productivity is tedious. Where I work at, it took 2 yrs to drive a simple clean up effort costing less than 1k. A lot of politics were involved in between.
“夏则资皮,冬则资纱,旱则资船,水则资车” - 范蠡
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#23
^^ Agree... and far too many value players are numbers crunchers without thinking in more details about the incentives for management and major shareholders, with ref to their track record of whether they do what they say.
Before you speak, listen. Before you write, think. Before you spend, earn. Before you invest, investigate. Before you criticize, wait. Before you pray, forgive. Before you quit, try. Before you retire, save. Before you die, give. –William A. Ward

Think Asset-Business-Structure (ABS)
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#24
oh no... means our industrialists are having clutch mentality izzit? Tongue
1) Try NOT to LOSE money!
2) Do NOT SELL in BEAR, BUY-BUY-BUY! invest in managements/companies that does the same!
3) CASH in hand is KING in BEAR! 
4) In BULL, SELL-SELL-SELL! 
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#25
economics and economists... maybe what layman think and feel is correct... policies U-turn due to vote concerns and hence the changes but resulted in undesirable effects of cost-push inflation resulting from liberal migration policies and limited policies restricting hot $ access to highly sought after hard assets in a safe haven...

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/governme...tivity-mas

Restructuring not just about productivity: MAS

Exercise aims to align economy with capabilities, resources; raising productivity is for increasing real wages

By
Kelly Taykellytay@sph.com.sg@KellyTayBT
singaporgrwoth0411.jpg An increasingly ageing and affluent population, for instance, has meant greater demand for health and education services, as well as recreational activities - all of which require more workers. PHOTO: BLOOMBERG
4 Nov5:50 AM
Singapore

AS it becomes clearer that it will be extremely challenging for Singapore to hit its ambitious 2-3 per cent productivity growth target, the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has said restructuring should not be measured solely against productivity performance, and that productivity is not an end in itself.

In response to queries from The Business Times, MAS chief economist and assistant managing director (Economic Policy) Edward Robinson said: "Restructuring is about making the shifts necessary to align the structure of the economy with our capabilities and endowments, in other words, to produce what we are good at and have the resources for. The ultimate objective of raising productivity is to increase real wages for Singaporeans, which in turn is a means to increase economic welfare through consumption of a variety of goods and services. Hence, productivity is not an end in itself; neither is production, exports, or competitiveness per se."

Mr Robinson's comments come as Singapore nears the halfway mark of its 10-year economic restructuring drive - and with little to show for it, at least by way of labour productivity growth. This averaged just 0.1 per cent from 2011 to Q2 2014, and only 0.4 per cent if construction - often cited as a productivity laggard - is excluded. But Mr Robinson told BT that in the short term, "there are limitations in relying on simple productivity indicators" since they are "not a good guide" to the country's ability to sustain and enhance the population's standard of living. This is not only because productivity growth can see-saw from quarter to quarter - it is, after all, dependent on GDP performance - but also because productivity can be affected by sector-specific developments, based on the needs of society.

An increasingly ageing and affluent population, for instance, has meant greater demand for health and education services, as well as recreational activities - all of which require more workers. With a ramp-up in the number of infrastructure projects of late, additional labour has also been necessary in the construction sector.

Because of the increase in labour inputs, a direct measure of productivity - conventionally calculated as output over input - may not necessarily yield favourable results. In fact, mathematically, productivity is likely to fall. "But in both these instances, it is clearly the case that Singaporeans' welfare is enhanced by the production and availability of such infrastructure and services," said Mr Robinson, stressing that short-term fluctuations in productivity growth "do not mean that the welfare of Singaporeans has suddenly deteriorated or improved".

Just as the MAS is hesitant to assess restructuring by a single metric, it is also loathe to judge Singapore's competitiveness solely by its real exchange rate, unit labour cost, export performance or market share.

Private-sector economists have highlighted how Singapore's real effective exchange rate (REER) has been climbing steadily against the average REER of regional economies. They argue that this has made the Republic's exports even more uncompetitive, leading to a decline in export performance.

But Mr Robinson said that it can be "misleading" to infer that Singapore has lost overall export competitiveness just because its real exchange rate has strengthened over time.

For one thing, the product mix of Singapore's export basket continues to evolve, to include higher value-added goods which command higher unit prices. And while Singapore may have lost competitiveness in one market or industry (such as disk drives), it has also gained competitiveness in other areas (including semiconductors and storage devices).

Said Mr Robinson: "Similarly, if our export growth is slowing or if we are not gaining market share, it does not necessarily mean that we are no longer competitive."

While other ministries and government agencies have a more direct bearing on the restructuring process - by providing businesses with incentives and support to transform - Mr Robinson says the MAS's role in restructuring is a different one.

"Monetary policy in Singapore is not the driver of the restructuring process, but rather the handmaiden to keep inflation low and stable during the transitory period. As MAS has repeatedly emphasised, an orchestrated weakening of the domestic currency will not enhance competitiveness, and will only lead to higher inflation."

As such, even though restructuring could entail higher costs and slower growth, Mr Robinson says the MAS seeks to instill confidence that prices are stable over the medium term.

"This would provide the certainty and assurance for firms to make longer-term investment decisions, initiate changes in business processes, and spur new lines of activity. The returns from such investments will more likely be higher in an environment with macroeconomic stability," he added.

In a statement on Monday, the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) maintained its productivity growth target of 2-3 per cent per year, which was adopted in February 2010 for the 10-year period to 2019.

MTI said: "While it was ambitious, it reflected the room for improvement after just 1 per cent growth on average in the decade up to 2009. Productivity is now expected to grow by slightly over 2 per cent per year on average in the first five years of the target period, but with almost all the gains being achieved in 2010 when the economy recovered strongly."
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#26
http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/banking-...ctors-rise

SINGAPORE EconOMIC ROUNDTABLE
The price of financial sector's rise
Over-dependence on the industry has led to negative effects such as rising cost of living and inequality, says former banker

By
Malminderjit Singhmsingh@sph.com.sg@MalminderjitBT
sgpricefinancial0511.jpg The financial sector has driven Singapore's growth since the 2000s, but over-dependence on the industry has brought many economic and social costs. PHOTO: SPH
5 Nov5:50 AM
Singapore

THE financial sector has driven Singapore's growth since the 2000s, but over-dependence on the industry has brought many economic and social costs, according to Venkatraman Anantha-Nageswaran, a former banker here.

For one, credit growth has been too rampant although he acknowledged that the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has taken steps since last year to rein this in.
"Singapore banks' general commerce loans, a proxy for trade finance loans, almost quadrupled from S$44 billion in February 2009 to S$174 billion in July 2014. By contrast, Singapore's annualised total trade has risen by only 36 per cent from its 2009 low. So clearly, there is much more than trade financing that is going on here," he said.
Secondly, as Singapore developed into a financial centre, this also led to an overwhelming inflow of capital. The finance sector attracted the most foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2012, with more than S$359 billion pouring in, making up almost half of the total FDI of S$746 billion coming into Singapore that year.
The industry's phenomenal growth has also seen employees in the sector enjoying the highest salary increase among all other industries (See earning power).
According to official statistics, Dr Venkatraman said, employees in the financial and insurance services sector had the highest growth rate in compensation over the last 10 years, growing at 11.3 per cent per annum from 2003 to 2013. This was more than double the rate of the manufacturing sector, which saw growth of 5 per cent per annum over the same period. Even on per capita terms, financial and insurance sector employees saw the highest growth in their salaries at 4.7 per cent per annum, compared to an average 2.5 per cent compensation growth across all sectors.
Moreover, Dr Venkatraman, who was speaking in the first segment of the roundtable on the macro-economic outlook for Singapore and its implications for policy, said the income differential within the sector, particularly between the expatriate executives and locals, is wide and gives rise to "undesirable social phenomenon".
"There are more than 100 foreign banks in Singapore . . . as the local labour pool cannot support them all, the demand for foreign staff increases," he added. "Competition for both labour and business intensifies and therefore vigorous lending follows. Consumption and growth become more dependent on asset price inflation which is reminiscent of what happened in the US, and it did not end well there."
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