Risk off?

[greengiraffe]

u should seriously look at buying blumont, asiasons, liongold... based on your calls, they are fantastic bargains...

GG

so many stocks got sold down , there's a lot bargains now
not only kep corp

just that oil and gas related, got sold down the most~ so easier to find great companies that will do well in the long term selling cheap from this area

[LLS]

europe opened red, asia markets going red too

I think that if markets take a 10-20% correction, central banks are likely to come in to prop up the market

[CityFarmer]

europe opened red, asia markets going red too

I think that if markets take a 10-20% correction, central banks are likely to come in to prop up the market

A correction of 10-20%, will never trigger a rescue operation by central banks.

FYI, the 1 s.d. yearly volatility of indexes are usually more than 20 percentage points

[BlueKelah]

as I have been always saying, once the bond buying tapers off and stops in USA, stock markets will start to tumble.

Then US economy wont look so hot, then they will pump in money again. US and China will end up just like Europe. Politically Obama has to keep things afloat until end of his second term. After that is anyone's guess. Since he came into office, US has only been spending more and getting more debt.

Interest rate rise? I dun think it will ever come, look at Europe is a good example. Basically they have been in deflation which is masked by the inflation from monetary easing. Just like USA also the same. If central banks dun busy body, usually after a crash you will get recession then depression/deflation.

China will probably end up like Japan if Chairman Xi gives in to the greedy officials and property developers.

Just wait till next month, FED will be like "oh our numbers are down, we need to stimulus again", then china will also be like oh ours too and put in another stimulus.

Once FED does announce the next round of bond purchases, we can safely buy back in the market again.

[LLS]

germany just lower forecast growth, markets going weaker

[greengiraffe]

I m more positive than you...

Basically the world has been sick since last GFC...

So someone innovatively print $ and those with access to such flow benefited.

These people have been well fed and still waiting to go long.

Momentum build up in any economic cycle won't disappear simply due to a reversal.

If it is that easy, then why bother to create such a cycle.

Everyone wants to buy cheap and that is a given. However cheap stuff only come about when all caution are being thrown to the winds.

So far the mood is such that most people are cautious and hence seriously there is less to worry about.

Its a psychological game. Until everyone feels a lot more secure, may not to the euphoric extent like the previous cycle, that is when we should start worrying.

Interest rates will rise and initially that will indicate the health of economic recovery and recovery momentum will be there to withstanding more rises until such time when everyone is convinced that they can beat more interest rate rises is when the party is full on.

Now we are at the transition to a period of prolonged low interest rates - naturally a correction is warranted.

No worries and be happy
Stay Vested
Cashing Up would mean $ will be steadily eroded via $ being printed
GG

as I have been always saying, once the bond buying tapers off and stops in USA, stock markets will start to tumble.

Then US economy wont look so hot, then they will pump in money again. US and China will end up just like Europe. Politically Obama has to keep things afloat until end of his second term. After that is anyone's guess. Since he came into office, US has only been spending more and getting more debt.

Interest rate rise? I dun think it will ever come, look at Europe is a good example. Basically they have been in deflation which is masked by the inflation from monetary easing. Just like USA also the same. If central banks dun busy body, usually after a crash you will get recession then depression/deflation.

China will probably end up like Japan if Chairman Xi gives in to the greedy officials and property developers.

Just wait till next month, FED will be like "oh our numbers are down, we need to stimulus again", then china will also be like oh ours too and put in another stimulus.

Once FED does announce the next round of bond purchases, we can safely buy back in the market again.

[Behappyalways]

BIS warns on 'violent' reversal of global markets
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/econo...rkets.html

[Dosser]

It has been an interesting week, with the expected downward trend, despite the rally on Friday. So is this just a taper tantrum, like we had last year, or a more sustained bear market, maybe even warning shocks before a crash? The crystal ball is very cloudy, because there are so many unknowns:

1. Will the FED resume QE? Personally, i think it very unlikely, as they will be seen by many to be bailing out investors/banks and/or reacting to European problems when the Europeans themselves won't. Odder things have happened, and maybe the Greenspan and Bernanke 'put' will be followed by the Yellen 'put'. I still doubt it; i suspect they will limit it to a few 'verbal hints' to jolt markets upwards when they are falling, without actually doing anything.
2. Will one or more of the weak EURO nations finally break free of the dead hand of the ECB, or will the ECB do a lot more (like real QE)? The trouble is, the EURO area has been limping on for so long, with nothing much changing. Draghi talks a good fight, but so far it hasn't been much more than talk.
3. Will the response to Ebola be any better than the fumbling efforts so far, and will the spread to the US/Europe become more than a few cases, will (or when will) it get to Asia?
4. How will all of the geopolitical crises from Ukraine to Hong Kong to ISIS play out?
5. The fall in commodity prices, from oil to iron ore, will give consumers more money to spend, but how much does this reflect slowing in China?

Personally, I am keeping my powder dry. I know that the STI is supposed to be fair value at the moment, but I can't see any screaming buys yet. If it just a short term tantrum/correction, I may miss out a little on the upside, but I would rather be cautious and wait until i see an opportunity that I just can't resist, even if it is a long, maybe very long, wait.

[greengiraffe]

Basically, its if you see it half full or half empty.

As I always say, the world is sick and the older you get, you just have to convince yourself that its a conspiracy.

From previous crisis starting from AFC in 97 till the GFC in 07, historical economic theory of austerity simply cannot work.

Simple reason, consters still need to stay in power and job. HUNGRY people are ANGRY people.

A buddy of mine told me just today - until consters can't print $, then bloodshed and war will be the only way out to resolve the dragging economic issues that have been passed down for generations.

Have you ever asked yourself why so many older generation make so much $ staying vested in properties and quality equities? The answer is simple - these asset classes are excellent hedge against asset inflation resulting from generations of dragging but creative solutions to simple economic problems due to irresponsible spendings.

I think Buffet is a champion from all the generation of mis-management of economic problems.

Stay Positive
Uncover sound fundmental investment ideas
GG

It has been an interesting week, with the expected downward trend, despite the rally on Friday. So is this just a taper tantrum, like we had last year, or a more sustained bear market, maybe even warning shocks before a crash? The crystal ball is very cloudy, because there are so many unknowns:

1. Will the FED resume QE? Personally, i think it very unlikely, as they will be seen by many to be bailing out investors/banks and/or reacting to European problems when the Europeans themselves won't. Odder things have happened, and maybe the Greenspan and Bernanke 'put' will be followed by the Yellen 'put'. I still doubt it; i suspect they will limit it to a few 'verbal hints' to jolt markets upwards when they are falling, without actually doing anything.
2. Will one or more of the weak EURO nations finally break free of the dead hand of the ECB, or will the ECB do a lot more (like real QE)? The trouble is, the EURO area has been limping on for so long, with nothing much changing. Draghi talks a good fight, but so far it hasn't been much more than talk.
3. Will the response to Ebola be any better than the fumbling efforts so far, and will the spread to the US/Europe become more than a few cases, will (or when will) it get to Asia?
4. How will all of the geopolitical crises from Ukraine to Hong Kong to ISIS play out?
5. The fall in commodity prices, from oil to iron ore, will give consumers more money to spend, but how much does this reflect slowing in China?

Personally, I am keeping my powder dry. I know that the STI is supposed to be fair value at the moment, but I can't see any screaming buys yet. If it just a short term tantrum/correction, I may miss out a little on the upside, but I would rather be cautious and wait until i see an opportunity that I just can't resist, even if it is a long, maybe very long, wait.

[CityFarmer]

It has been an interesting week, with the expected downward trend, despite the rally on Friday. So is this just a taper tantrum, like we had last year, or a more sustained bear market, maybe even warning shocks before a crash? The crystal ball is very cloudy, because there are so many unknowns:

1. Will the FED resume QE? Personally, i think it very unlikely, as they will be seen by many to be bailing out investors/banks and/or reacting to European problems when the Europeans themselves won't. Odder things have happened, and maybe the Greenspan and Bernanke 'put' will be followed by the Yellen 'put'. I still doubt it; i suspect they will limit it to a few 'verbal hints' to jolt markets upwards when they are falling, without actually doing anything.
2. Will one or more of the weak EURO nations finally break free of the dead hand of the ECB, or will the ECB do a lot more (like real QE)? The trouble is, the EURO area has been limping on for so long, with nothing much changing. Draghi talks a good fight, but so far it hasn't been much more than talk.
3. Will the response to Ebola be any better than the fumbling efforts so far, and will the spread to the US/Europe become more than a few cases, will (or when will) it get to Asia?
4. How will all of the geopolitical crises from Ukraine to Hong Kong to ISIS play out?
5. The fall in commodity prices, from oil to iron ore, will give consumers more money to spend, but how much does this reflect slowing in China?

Personally, I am keeping my powder dry. I know that the STI is supposed to be fair value at the moment, but I can't see any screaming buys yet. If it just a short term tantrum/correction, I may miss out a little on the upside, but I would rather be cautious and wait until i see an opportunity that I just can't resist, even if it is a long, maybe very long, wait.

I look at different ball than the crystal ball

Instead of looking at macro factor to determine a entry point, I look at the individual preferred companies. Nothing done last week, because the preferred companies didn't drop much, and still not cheap enough