Bukit Sembawang

[Vseeker]

Closing Prices(12-Jan 2011): BukitSem=$4.88, BukitSem-w1104=$2.58

In Nov-2010, Bukit Sem actually sold another:
i) 34 units of Luxus Hills at Median Prc $1227 psf
ii) 3 units of Vermont @median Prc $2654 psf
and most importantly, iii) sold another 41 units of Paterson Suites @$2661 psf

The Sale of another 41-units of Paterson Suites in Nov, means that BukitSem will be racking in another $200m in sales
and some $97m in earnings (38c per shr) just from these 41 sold units alone & recognition will be within this few months.

its upcoming Q3 or Q4 results will show this impact,
and this will see BukitSem breaching its all times high in record revenues and earnings - in the current FY ending Mar2011.

(NB: BukitSem 2011-Q1 is from Apr-Jun2010; Q2 = Jul-Sep2010; Q3 = Oct-Dec2010 and Q4 = Jan-Mar2011 )
Below are the latest available results from Bukit Sem:
FY2011-Q1: Rev=$34.4m & PAT=$12.62m; Eps= 5.2c for Q1
FY2011-Q2: Rev=$92.2m & PAT=$30.86m; Eps=12.3c for Q2
NB: big jump in Q2 earnings is largely due to TOP of Paterson Suites in July/Aug2010, resulting in increased recognition from Paterson Suites

NB: as at Sep2010, only 23-units of Paterson Suites were sold, mostly sold way back in 2007
but Bukit had since sold a further 42 units over Oct+Nov2010
thus upcoming Q3 & Q4 results will be most interesting.

Typically (for Yrs 2000-2009), Bukit Sem achieve revenues of between $30m-80m and earnings of $20m-$40m per annum
So far only exception was FY2008, earnings shot up to $75.5m becoz of a $46m gains from divestment of its HSBC shares.
BUT FY2011 will be a all times blowout year for BukitSem,
I'm guesstimating revenues and earnings quadrupling to some $400m and $150m respectively
and Bukit's FY2011 is only 3 months away - their financial year ending is in March 2011.

And 2011 is also Bukit Sem's 100th Anniversary year !!!
and with its last remaining warrants expiring this April-2011, and given its still huge landbank,
will Bukit take advantage of this great report card, on such an important anniversary, to further enlarge its capital base ??

I'm vested, naturally,
note that above are selective extracts from my postings, make in another forum way back on 21-Dec2010

[freedom]

difficult to value a property developer using PE or earning. simply because it is difficult to repeat earning due to cyclical nature of property development

NAV is better.

BukitSem traded above 1.5 * NAV?

Bukit Sembawang has not acquired any land in the past 2+ years. They may have enough landbank til 2012. what's after 2012, which is next years. nothing to launch?

[Vseeker]

What NAV are you using ?
using "NAV" as reported in its results or annual report is quite meaningless coz its lands (excluding those enbloc acquisitions after July2005)
are converted from rubber plantation lands dating to as far back as 1911
==> real cost (excluding DCs) probably much lesser than $50 psf.

even those enblocs acquired after 2005, they are now worth a hell lot more !

to give U an idea,
valuation was done for purpose of arranging bank loans,
the piece where current Luxus Hills project is resited,
is valued as at Dec2008 as having an OMV of $436m.

BUT ofcourse B/S only carried the lower of costs vs market value.

difficult to value a property developer using PE or earning. simply because it is difficult to repeat earning due to cyclical nature of property development

NAV is better.

BukitSem traded above 1.5 * NAV?

Bukit Sembawang has not acquired any land in the past 2+ years. They may have enough landbank til 2012. what's after 2012, which is next years. nothing to launch?

[freedom]

What NAV are you using ?
using "NAV" as reported in its results or annual report is quite meaningless coz its lands (excluding those enbloc acquisitions after July2005)
are converted from rubber plantation lands dating to as far back as 1911
==> real cost (excluding DCs) probably much lesser than $50 psf.

even those enblocs acquired after 2005, they are now worth a hell lot more !

to give U an idea,
valuation was done for purpose of arranging bank loans,
the piece where current Luxus Hills project is resited,
is valued as at Dec2008 as having an OMV of $436m.

BUT ofcourse B/S only carried the lower of costs vs market value.

difficult to value a property developer using PE or earning. simply because it is difficult to repeat earning due to cyclical nature of property development

NAV is better.

BukitSem traded above 1.5 * NAV?

Bukit Sembawang has not acquired any land in the past 2+ years. They may have enough landbank til 2012. what's after 2012, which is next years. nothing to launch?

if that is the case, why in 2009, it was traded as low as $2?

land revaluation under current cooling measure, better take caution.

[Vseeker]

let us just patiently monitor the share prices over next 3-5 months:

Bukit Sembawang
Closing Prices today (18-Jan 2011): BukitSem=$5.82, BukitSem-w1104=$2.50 (NB: Wrt was last traded on 17-Jan)

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What do you see below ??

I see close to $202m rolling into BukitSem's coffer within this few weeks....
Bukit's borrowings should get halfed in 2011 - easily.
BukitSem's FY2011 ending Mar2011, will see revenues and earnings quadrupling from it gets in its normal years.


Private Residential Property Transactions with Caveats Lodged
No of Area Unit Option /
Project Addr Type Units Price Sqft Type Price Sales Agt Signed

Below Taken on 13-Jan-2011
1 PATERSON SUITES PATERSON ROAD Condominium 1 $4,231,000 1,679 Strata $2,520 Dec-10
2 PATERSON SUITES PATERSON ROAD Condominium 1 $4,349,000 1,679 Strata $2,590 Dec-10
3 PATERSON SUITES PATERSON ROAD Condominium 1 $4,357,000 1,679 Strata $2,595 Dec-10
4 PATERSON SUITES PATERSON ROAD Condominium 1 $4,332,000 1,679 Strata $2,580 Dec-10
5 PATERSON SUITES PATERSON ROAD Condominium 1 $4,273,000 1,679 Strata $2,545 Dec-10
6 PATERSON SUITES PATERSON ROAD Condominium 1 $4,298,000 1,679 Strata $2,560 Dec-10
7 PATERSON SUITES PATERSON ROAD Condominium 1 $4,198,000 1,679 Strata $2,500 Dec-10
8 PATERSON SUITES PATERSON ROAD Condominium 1 $4,206,000 1,679 Strata $2,505 Dec-10
9 PATERSON SUITES PATERSON ROAD Condominium 1 $4,214,000 1,679 Strata $2,510 Dec-10
10 PATERSON SUITES PATERSON ROAD Condominium 1 $4,223,000 1,679 Strata $2,515 Dec-10
11 PATERSON SUITES PATERSON ROAD Condominium 1 $4,381,000 1,679 Strata $2,609 Dec-10
12 PATERSON SUITES PATERSON ROAD Condominium 1 $4,239,000 1,679 Strata $2,524 Dec-10
13 PATERSON SUITES PATERSON ROAD Condominium 1 $4,265,000 1,679 Strata $2,540 Dec-10
14 PATERSON SUITES PATERSON ROAD Condominium 1 $4,265,000 1,679 Strata $2,540 Dec-10
15 PATERSON SUITES PATERSON ROAD Condominium 1 $4,290,000 1,679 Strata $2,555 Dec-10
16 PATERSON SUITES PATERSON ROAD Condominium 1 $4,307,000 1,679 Strata $2,565 Dec-10
17 PATERSON SUITES PATERSON ROAD Condominium 1 $4,315,000 1,679 Strata $2,570 Dec-10
18 PATERSON SUITES PATERSON ROAD Condominium 1 $4,323,000 1,679 Strata $2,574 Dec-10
19 PATERSON SUITES PATERSON ROAD Condominium 20 $118,611,000 43,928 Strata $2,700 Dec-10
20 PATERSON SUITES PATERSON ROAD Condominium 1 $6,846,260 2,185 Strata $3,133 Nov-10
Total ==> for above 39-units = $202,523,260

NB: above 39-units is part of the 42-units (Paterson Suites) that BkSem sold in Oct-Nov2010, it sold another 2-units @ave $2943 psf in Dec2010

[psslo]

Vseeker,

Are all the 39 caveats lodged since your list only number 20? With the policy tightening announced by govt, the investors & funds may be tempted to chicken out & forfeit their options. Any idea?

let us just patiently monitor the share prices over next 3-5 months:

Bukit Sembawang
Closing Prices today (18-Jan 2011): BukitSem=$5.82, BukitSem-w1104=$2.50 (NB: Wrt was last traded on 17-Jan)

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.
.
.




What do you see below ??

I see close to $202m rolling into BukitSem's coffer within this few weeks....
Bukit's borrowings should get halfed in 2011 - easily.
BukitSem's FY2011 ending Mar2011, will see revenues and earnings quadrupling from it gets in its normal years.


Private Residential Property Transactions with Caveats Lodged
No of Area Unit Option /
Project Addr Type Units Price Sqft Type Price Sales Agt Signed

Below Taken on 13-Jan-2011
1 PATERSON SUITES PATERSON ROAD Condominium 1 $4,231,000 1,679 Strata $2,520 Dec-10
2 PATERSON SUITES PATERSON ROAD Condominium 1 $4,349,000 1,679 Strata $2,590 Dec-10
3 PATERSON SUITES PATERSON ROAD Condominium 1 $4,357,000 1,679 Strata $2,595 Dec-10
4 PATERSON SUITES PATERSON ROAD Condominium 1 $4,332,000 1,679 Strata $2,580 Dec-10
5 PATERSON SUITES PATERSON ROAD Condominium 1 $4,273,000 1,679 Strata $2,545 Dec-10
6 PATERSON SUITES PATERSON ROAD Condominium 1 $4,298,000 1,679 Strata $2,560 Dec-10
7 PATERSON SUITES PATERSON ROAD Condominium 1 $4,198,000 1,679 Strata $2,500 Dec-10
8 PATERSON SUITES PATERSON ROAD Condominium 1 $4,206,000 1,679 Strata $2,505 Dec-10
9 PATERSON SUITES PATERSON ROAD Condominium 1 $4,214,000 1,679 Strata $2,510 Dec-10
10 PATERSON SUITES PATERSON ROAD Condominium 1 $4,223,000 1,679 Strata $2,515 Dec-10
11 PATERSON SUITES PATERSON ROAD Condominium 1 $4,381,000 1,679 Strata $2,609 Dec-10
12 PATERSON SUITES PATERSON ROAD Condominium 1 $4,239,000 1,679 Strata $2,524 Dec-10
13 PATERSON SUITES PATERSON ROAD Condominium 1 $4,265,000 1,679 Strata $2,540 Dec-10
14 PATERSON SUITES PATERSON ROAD Condominium 1 $4,265,000 1,679 Strata $2,540 Dec-10
15 PATERSON SUITES PATERSON ROAD Condominium 1 $4,290,000 1,679 Strata $2,555 Dec-10
16 PATERSON SUITES PATERSON ROAD Condominium 1 $4,307,000 1,679 Strata $2,565 Dec-10
17 PATERSON SUITES PATERSON ROAD Condominium 1 $4,315,000 1,679 Strata $2,570 Dec-10
18 PATERSON SUITES PATERSON ROAD Condominium 1 $4,323,000 1,679 Strata $2,574 Dec-10
19 PATERSON SUITES PATERSON ROAD Condominium 20 $118,611,000 43,928 Strata $2,700 Dec-10
20 PATERSON SUITES PATERSON ROAD Condominium 1 $6,846,260 2,185 Strata $3,133 Nov-10
Total ==> for above 39-units = $202,523,260

NB: above 39-units is part of the 42-units (Paterson Suites) that BkSem sold in Oct-Nov2010, it sold another 2-units @ave $2943 psf in Dec2010

[Vseeker]

one of the caveat is $118.6m for 20-units ,
and some more, these are for larger units - averaging 2196 sqft each
Ave Size AvePrc perUnit $Psf
2196 $5,930,550 $2,700


chicken out or not, we will know in a few weeks time,
my bet is few will chicken out, coz these are all in excess of $4 mio per unit,
not your typical HDB upgrader type of players here.


19 PATERSON SUITES PATERSON ROAD Condominium 20 $118,611,000 43,928 Strata $2,700 Dec-10

Vseeker,

Are all the 39 caveats lodged since your list only number 20?

With the policy tightening announced by govt, the investors & funds may be tempted to chicken out & forfeit their options. Any idea?

let us just patiently monitor the share prices over next 3-5 months:

Bukit Sembawang
Closing Prices today (18-Jan 2011): BukitSem=$5.82, BukitSem-w1104=$2.50 (NB: Wrt was last traded on 17-Jan)

.
.
.
.

What do you see below ??

I see close to $202m rolling into BukitSem's coffer within this few weeks....
Bukit's borrowings should get halfed in 2011 - easily.
BukitSem's FY2011 ending Mar2011, will see revenues and earnings quadrupling from it gets in its normal years.


Private Residential Property Transactions with Caveats Lodged
No of Area Unit Option /
Project Addr Type Units Price Sqft Type Price Sales Agt Signed

Below Taken on 13-Jan-2011
1 PATERSON SUITES PATERSON ROAD Condominium 1 $4,231,000 1,679 Strata $2,520 Dec-10
2 PATERSON SUITES PATERSON ROAD Condominium 1 $4,349,000 1,679 Strata $2,590 Dec-10
3 PATERSON SUITES PATERSON ROAD Condominium 1 $4,357,000 1,679 Strata $2,595 Dec-10
4 PATERSON SUITES PATERSON ROAD Condominium 1 $4,332,000 1,679 Strata $2,580 Dec-10
5 PATERSON SUITES PATERSON ROAD Condominium 1 $4,273,000 1,679 Strata $2,545 Dec-10
6 PATERSON SUITES PATERSON ROAD Condominium 1 $4,298,000 1,679 Strata $2,560 Dec-10
7 PATERSON SUITES PATERSON ROAD Condominium 1 $4,198,000 1,679 Strata $2,500 Dec-10
8 PATERSON SUITES PATERSON ROAD Condominium 1 $4,206,000 1,679 Strata $2,505 Dec-10
9 PATERSON SUITES PATERSON ROAD Condominium 1 $4,214,000 1,679 Strata $2,510 Dec-10
10 PATERSON SUITES PATERSON ROAD Condominium 1 $4,223,000 1,679 Strata $2,515 Dec-10
11 PATERSON SUITES PATERSON ROAD Condominium 1 $4,381,000 1,679 Strata $2,609 Dec-10
12 PATERSON SUITES PATERSON ROAD Condominium 1 $4,239,000 1,679 Strata $2,524 Dec-10
13 PATERSON SUITES PATERSON ROAD Condominium 1 $4,265,000 1,679 Strata $2,540 Dec-10
14 PATERSON SUITES PATERSON ROAD Condominium 1 $4,265,000 1,679 Strata $2,540 Dec-10
15 PATERSON SUITES PATERSON ROAD Condominium 1 $4,290,000 1,679 Strata $2,555 Dec-10
16 PATERSON SUITES PATERSON ROAD Condominium 1 $4,307,000 1,679 Strata $2,565 Dec-10
17 PATERSON SUITES PATERSON ROAD Condominium 1 $4,315,000 1,679 Strata $2,570 Dec-10
18 PATERSON SUITES PATERSON ROAD Condominium 1 $4,323,000 1,679 Strata $2,574 Dec-10
19 PATERSON SUITES PATERSON ROAD Condominium 20 $118,611,000 43,928 Strata $2,700 Dec-10
20 PATERSON SUITES PATERSON ROAD Condominium 1 $6,846,260 2,185 Strata $3,133 Nov-10
Total ==> for above 39-units = $202,523,260

NB: above 39-units is part of the 42-units (Paterson Suites) that BkSem sold in Oct-Nov2010, it sold another 2-units @ave $2943 psf in Dec2010

[Vseeker]

BukitSem Wrts will expire soon
Last day for Wrt trading is 01-April-2011 (5 pm), thereafter it will be delisted.
So if you are holding the warrants, better take action to sell/or excercise it BEFORE it expires worthless.

NB: for Bukit, the prospects ahead are excellent,
starting ofcourse with upcoming FY2011 results towards end of May
- FY2011 will be Bukit's all times record revenues+earnings year ever.

proceeds from excercise of all outstanding wrts will total only around $33m (only 14.25m wrts o/s as at Dec2010)
but not a issue coz BukitSem got lots more Cashs rolling in from elsewhere !!!
total Sales from sold units for Luxus Hills, Vermont & Patersons Suites already total over $1 billion !!

You may have noticed that in its latest set of results (2011-Q3 ending Dec2010)
Q3's Cash+Equiv: rose $52m from Q2's $151m to $203m
Trade Receivables: jump $176.5m from Q2's mere $15.6m to current $192m
Combine above two: that's almost $400m cash in total

and it's not so surprisingly, coz just the sold units from below 3 projects - already racked in $1.0 billions revenues !!
Paterson Suites: Sold 68 out of 102 units
Vermont : sold 79 out of 158 units
Luxus Hills : sold 196 out of the 198 units launched-to-date.

BukitSem will be clocking its all-times record earnings in coming FY2011-Mar results with revenues easily in excess of $500m
2011 is also Bukit's 100th anniversary.... so maybe there may be some goodies...

going forward into FY2012-2013... cashflow should remain v. strong,

NB: the entire Luxus Hills project have a total of 944 units, so still another 748-units available for launch/sale
and the selling price for smaller "inter-terrace units" (1615 sq ft) had been rising steadily,
from around $1.65m in 2009, now mostly going for over $2m per unit
so potential sales revenue from remaining 748-units for Luxus Hills alone, will exceed $1.5 billion - easily !
coz corner terrace units always sell for much more - coz bigger landarea.

Cheap Land Bank
Beside its legacy land bank for low-rise landed ppties (Luxus Hills + others around Seletar hills +Sembawang Rd),
BukitSem still have sizable stock of prime "condo lands": at Paterson Rd (Lengkok Angsa II), St Thomas Walk & Telok Blangah (Fairways),
above yet to develop prime "condo lands" (approx 800,000 sqft GFA) were acquired in 2005/2007 at cheaper $700-$900+ psfppr levels.

.... and there are still the progress recognitions coming in for Vermont in Carinhills, Verdure in Holland Road,
and any additional units sold for Paterson Suites - it's a full 100% recognition at one go, coz its already TOP-ed.

Current price weakness is... **** note down your own thinkings & revisit your thoughts in end May, Aug + Nov ****

[ngcheeki]

Full year result for Bukit Sembawang result is out.

NAV: $3.82
DPS: 12 cents
EPS : 68.8 cents

Outlook:
Luxus Hills Phase 1 (78 units) is expected to be completed during the first half of financial year ending 2012. The Group will continue to closely monitor the property market and will time the launches of Luxus Hills Phase 5 and new condominium project along Telok Blangah Road in the current financial year. Barring unforeseen circumstances, the Group will remain profitable for the current financial year.

See the following for more information:

http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/V...9002B633F/$file/BSEL4Q2011.pdf?openelement

vested

[ngcheeki]

Bukit Seembawang has reported a good set of result, dividend increased from 12 cents (FY2011) to 18 cents (FY2012). Next Q1 FY2013, the result will be good because of Luxus Hills Phase 2 (100% sold) and Verdure (100%) sold.

Net Earning ('000): $182,905.00
EPS: $0.7064
NTA: $4.2158
Price to Book: 1.04 (Base on price of S$4.4)
Yield: 4.09% (18 cent dividend)
Gearing: net Cash of S$0.09

Prospect FY2012:
Based on Urban Redevelopment Authority’s statistics, the total number of new home sales was 6,682 units during the first three
months of the year. The sales were mainly from suburban projects. Prices of Singapore’s residential properties decreased by 0.1%
in the first quarter of 2012, as compared with the increase of 0.2% in the previous quarter. This was the first quarterly fall
in prices since second quarter of 2009.

Following successive cooling measures introduced by the Singapore Government, sentiments in the high-end residential property market
have been dampened. We expect property market conditions in this segment to remain challenging.

Luxus Hills Phase 2 and Verdure at Holland Road are expected to be completed during the second quarter of 2012.

http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/V...7003F4964/$file/BSEL4Q2012.pdf?openelement