Pimco Total Return Fund posts record $23.5 billion net outflow in September

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#1
Ties in with my view that penultimate bull run will end in 2016/17. Stock market cycle - 3 years sharp bear and 7 year grinding bull...

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100808186

Pimco Sees 60% Chance of Global Recession in 3-5 Years
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Published: Tuesday, 11 Jun 2013 | 11:18 PM ET
By: Dhara Ranasinghe | Senior Writer

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High debt levels have raised the chances of a global recession in the next three to five years to more than 60 percent, said Pimco, which manages the world's largest bond fund.

The world economy goes through a recession about every six years and the frequency of global recessions tends to rise when global indebtedness is high and falling compared with when indebtedness is low and rising, Pacific Investment Management Co (Pimco) said in a note published on its website late Tuesday.

(Read More: PIMCO Total Return Fund Cuts Treasury Holdings in May)

"Given that the last global recession was four years ago, and also given that the global economy is significantly more indebted today than it was four years ago, we believe there is now a greater than 60 percent probability that we will experience another global recession in the next three to five years," Saumil H. Parikh, a managing director and generalist portfolio manager at Pimco said in the note.

The U.S. had a debt to GDP ratio of about 101.6 in 2012, up from 99.4 in 2011. Japan, the world's third largest economy after China and the U.S., has a debt to GDP ratio of more than 200 percent.


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"We have started to see more recessions than not, but I do think we have moved into a phase that we saw 10-20 years ago, where we have different pockets of growth," Sani Hamid, director wealth management at Financial Alliance, said referring to the Pimco report.

(Read More: Pimco's Gross Skewers Bernanke: You're Part of the Problem)
"I think Europe will remain mired in a recession while the U.S. will chug along at a low rate of growth, while emerging markets move ahead especially those in Asia," he added.

According to Pimco, investors should reduce their risk exposure given its outlook for deteriorating economic conditions in the world economy.

Parikh said that while both U.S. stocks and bonds were expensive, that was not the case globally and that he favored government bond markets in Australia, New Zealand, Sweden, Mexico and Brazil.

(Read More: Pimco's El-Erian: Walk, Don't Run From Equities Risk)
"In the equity space, we generally favor emerging market equities and specifically Chinese non-financial equities," Pariikh added in the note.

Emerging market assets have sold off sharply in recent weeks amid jitters about an outflow of funds as the investors brace for an unwinding of the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary stimulus. That monetary stimulus has helped boost liquidity in markets globally in recent years.
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#2
60 % . Can, maybe , yes , no , perhaps.

Time will prove it.
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#3
Bye-bye bonds?

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PIMCO, a leading global investment management firm, announced today that Chief Executive Officer and Co-Chief Investment Officer Mohamed A. El-Erian has decided to step down from his role and leave the firm in mid-March. He will remain a member of the Allianz International Executive Committee and, as of mid-March, also advise the Board of Management of Allianz on global economic and policy issues. PIMCO’s founder William H. Gross will continue to serve as the firm’s Chief Investment Officer. At the same time, the firm has appointed a new portfolio management and executive leadership team. They will immediately begin to transition into their new roles.
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#4
Left once and rejoined as co-CIO. Think its political cause emerging market bonds were doing well and he wants his pound of flesh while Gross not packing up anytime soon. Guessing only based on the high profile coming and going.
Before you speak, listen. Before you write, think. Before you spend, earn. Before you invest, investigate. Before you criticize, wait. Before you pray, forgive. Before you quit, try. Before you retire, save. Before you die, give. –William A. Ward

Think Asset-Business-Structure (ABS)
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#5
Is Pimco's Bill Gross a jerk?
http://buzz.money.cnn.com/2014/02/25/pim...?iid=HP_LN



Inside the Showdown Atop Pimco, the World's Biggest Bond Firm
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/inside-sho...00294.html
You can find more of my postings in http://investideas.net/forum/
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#6
Fund business largely depends on "hero". The same will happen to Berkshire Hathaway, if Mr. Buffett resign...

BTW, What is going-on between Bill Gross and Pimco?

Pimco Total Return Fund posts record $23.5 billion net outflow in September

Pacific Investment Management Co suffered a record $23.5 billion of withdrawals from its flagship Pimco Total Return Fund in September, with its largest daily outflow occurring on the day of Bill Gross's surprise resignation from the firm.

The Newport Beach, Calif.-based fund manager said the Pimco Total Return Fund, run by Gross for 27 years who made it into the world's largest bond fund, is "well positioned" to meet potential redemptions.

The Pimco Total Return Fund has now experienced 17 straight months of outflows, totaling $92.3 billion. Assets under management have fallen below $200 billion, down from a peak of $292.9 billion in April 2013.

"I'd say that this spike in outflows might not be over. Earlier we thought that $8 billion or $9 billion in a month was pretty bad, and here we're getting $8 (billion) and $9 billion a day," said Jeff Tjornehoj, head of Americas research at Lipper, a Thomson Reuters company.

"I think there's probably a couple of phases to it. First, it's the shock, people who had been thinking of withdrawing assets to Total Return reacted immediately. And then the next phase is those who are wondering if they got left behind."

Gross, the bond market's most renowned investor and sometimes called the "Bond King," quit Pimco for distant rival Janus Capital Group Inc on Friday, a day before he was expected to be fired from the firm he helped found more than 40 years ago.
...
http://www.todayonline.com/business/pimc...tflow-sept
“夏则资皮,冬则资纱,旱则资船,水则资车” - 范蠡
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#7
All started with El Elrian quiting early this year, after returning in 2007 with 2 years stint at Harvard. I don't recall he did great there.

But obviously it seems he has higher EQ than Bill Gross, and good at writing articles Smile
Before you speak, listen. Before you write, think. Before you spend, earn. Before you invest, investigate. Before you criticize, wait. Before you pray, forgive. Before you quit, try. Before you retire, save. Before you die, give. –William A. Ward

Think Asset-Business-Structure (ABS)
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#8
Fun managers...

We just make sure our Fund Management is a serious business...

GG
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#9
Pimco's new team has a challenging task to regain investors' trust. There was a full page advert on Pimco new management recently in the Edge...

Pimco could withstand extra $300-$350 billion outflows over two years: Morningstar

EW YORK - Pacific Investment Management Co can withstand additional outflows of about $300 billion to $350 billion over the next two years before its portfolio management operation is impaired, according to research firm Morningstar Inc on Tuesday.

Pimco is struggling to stem redemptions after the unexpected departure of co-founder Bill Gross on Sept. 26, an event that has triggered another round of speculation in the bond market over leadership stability and a possible separation from its parent Allianz SE.

Morningstar based its outflow estimate on the assumption that redemptions are orderly, Allianz continues its support and Pimco has strong firm-wide fund performance, Sumit Desai, an analyst at Chicago-based Morningstar, said in a webinar Tuesday to discuss the firm.

Last week, Pimco reported outflows of $48.3 billion across its open-ended funds in October, adding to $25.5 billion of withdrawals in the previous month, Morningstar said.
...
http://www.todayonline.com/business/pimc...orningstar
“夏则资皮,冬则资纱,旱则资船,水则资车” - 范蠡
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#10
The new management team is closely watched, even on monthly basic. The performance during this period, will either make or break the newly formed team...Big Grin

Pimco flagship fund slightly reduces U.S. government holdings in October

NEW YORK - Pimco's flagship Total Return fund, whose long-time manager Bill Gross unexpectedly departed on Sept. 26, ended October with a slight decrease in U.S. government-related holdings and a slight increase in mortgage-backed securities.

It was the first look into a full month's holdings under the new three-person management team -- Scott Mather, Mark Kiesel and Mihir Worah -- since Gross' exit.
...
http://www.todayonline.com/business/pimc...gs-october
“夏则资皮,冬则资纱,旱则资船,水则资车” - 范蠡
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