Samudera Shipping

[Yoyo]

weijian,
I feel unfitting of your kind words.  Many VB have positively contributed to this community, sharing their advice, experiences, knowledge and thoughts.  I among many others are guilty of having benefited tremendously, am merely trying to reciprocate in my small way.  I would like to take this opportunity to thank all contributors for their well intent and all moderators for selfless dedication.

I am aware Samudera is a big pie of my portfolio, am guilty of seeking confirmation bias.  In the sea of FUD, it will be good to have some like-minded souls.  I am of the opinion the market did not properly account for the huge earnings for these 2 years (a multiple of pre-covid earnings).  Its low P/E is a concern if the underlying earnings fall short.  Signs available have not yet flag any warning

Drewry WCI spot index is down but SCFI is flatline and SEAFI has bottom-up since end April 2022.  Though I do not have the concrete data for 2021, my feeling is average spot rate (all 3 indexes) being higher in 1H 2022 vs 1H 2021.  Moreover, Samudera informed its revenue model is mainly contracted basis, spot rate plays a small part.  This is evidenced by the strong showing in Samudera Indonesia 5 months results release.

Near future regional shipping demand will not be that bad if global recession hit – PSA transit port expansion, Supply Chain relocation to Asean, Relocation of Indonesia capital to Kalimantan (starting Aug 2022), Indonesia Refinery investment by Russia.
 
donmihaihai,
Shipping industry has been very good for the last 12 months.  Drewry WCI spot rate has indeed peaked in Sept 2021.

Some operators even claim that the cost of vessel can be recoup after several trips.  If true, the carrying cost of vessel + right of use value may not be a good reference for the shipping earning.  Regardless, I am appreciative of your caution.
 
specuvestor,
It is good that you resurface the old thread, I have read before, and again has combed from head to toe with much reflection of the good old times of active participation, sharing of wisdom, and regrettably many have stopped posting.

Thanks for your advice, I will look up for too much of a good thing.  Not looking into long term holding of Samudera given its cyclical nature.  By the way Samudera is not an alpha stock per se, but the only stock I can find in the SGX that is predominantly into containership business.

[Squirrel]

So what’s your motivation? Is it to extract a “you are right, I am wrong” from me?

To answer your question, definitely no. I am not here to determine or say who is right or wrong. That is not my intention at all. I am sorry if I made you feel that way.

I am just curious about your change in approach in this crisis, since you have said that you are not good in timing, and you are basically a "buy and hold" investor riding out bear markets.

Because I have seen investors who are very sure about a crisis, they hold 100% cash based on their opinion and short the market on the way down.

So, I guess for you, holding 40% cash is a big deal in anticipation of a crisis. And you did mention because of your personal situation, you have adopt a change in approach this time round.

This discussion is going nowhere and if you are uncomfortable, we can stop here. I respect your views but I am also very firm about mine. That is, one should not change their investment approach along the way in order to be consistent with their process. Stick to it in order to have a good outcome.

You have chosen to modify your process and I wish you all the best and have a good outcome as well at the end of it.

I am glad to have ascertained that you have come in peace. That makes a discussion much easier, after establishing it’s not adversarial.

Let’s just say I am not one to put all my eggs in one basket. So I won’t go 100% cash and short the market. I don’t short the market either. For example, even if I am damn sure of a company’s performance I won’t put my whole investment in one single name and throw out the rest. I know some people do, and with great success. But that’s not me.

I understand the logic of time in the market. It takes guts to hold through the troughs and I respect that. It will probably what I would do when my portfolio reaches a certain sizing such that even if it drops 30%, I can still comfortably live on it. But that’s not now for me.

Alas, this discussion won’t yield much since it’s subjective and won’t arrive at a conclusion unless we each lay out our returns for comparison. And probably this is not the right thread anyway. All the best to your investments too.

[donmihaihai]

donmihaihai,
Shipping industry has been very good for the last 12 months.  Drewry WCI spot rate has indeed peaked in Sept 2021.

Some operators even claim that the cost of vessel can be recoup after several trips.  If true, the carrying cost of vessel + right of use value may not be a good reference for the shipping earning.  Regardless, I am appreciative of your caution.

Thanks. Since I am on it, I will just add a little more. 

When the cost of vessel is recoup after several trips or a year when a new vessel can operate for 30 years, then the constraint is the ability to increase vessel and at what price. If there is no constraint, I would bet all operators will spend lot of earning on new vessel and vessel will doubled in the say, 2nd year. Of course, there are constraints, and that separate smart and dumb operator but it doesn't change the cyclical nature of the industry.

[Yoyo]

Quote
Some operators even claim that the cost of vessel can be recoup after several trips.  

I read it somewhere, an shipping article in english, unable to locate now.  Another article in chinese as attached point to the same.  Indeed unbelievable.
https://www.sofreight.com/news_59677.html

Vessel cost recoup in "one trip", I would be better comprehend if apply to the acquisition of an aged used vessel.

Just sharing.

[bryan2003]

Evergreen Marine reported history high revenue as link below..it has proved that investors should avoid the noise and stay invested.

https://money.udn.com/money/story/5612/6...GMIqYaHNZo

[Behappyalways]

1st half result is put. 7 cents interim dividend. Grats


https://links.sgx.com/1.0.0/corporate-an...8285a864fc

[Behappyalways]

Just to add my personal view ..

I estimate the big boys' cost is about 80+....maybe more as they push up.....

For individual stocks, remember share price peak when big boys are all in and start to drop when they offload....the glove counters are a stark reminder...

My two cents worth

[bryan2003]

https://shippingwatch.com/carriers/Conta...266891.ece

[bryan2003]

https://money.udn.com/money/story/5599/6...LxTnH5fG3E

[Yoyo]

Maersk adds another $7bn to revised full year earnings as liner records tumble
https://splash247.com/maersk-adds-anothe...ds-tumble/

“Several carriers have increased their earnings outlook for 2022,” Lars Jensen, CEO of liner consultancy Vespucci Maritime, pointed out in a post on LinkedIn today, going on to explain: “On the surface that appears to contradict the narrative of a declining market, but reality is that whilst spot rates are declining, contract rates for 2022 are substantially higher than for 2021. And even though contracts will come under pressure (some already are), and even if/when some contracts might be lowered this could well be to levels still exceeding what was seen in 2021.”

Samudera 1H2022
Samudera had recently released a decent 1H results with S$0.07 interim dividends.  Revenue has increased 128% from 209m to 476m (mainly container shipping 98%).  Net profit after tax grew 354% to 172m, from 37.9m in 1H2021.  Revenue from the container shipping segment rose 131% to 465m, from 201m, mainly driven by higher freight rate. Container volume handled increased by 27% from 753,000 TEUS in 1H2021 to 957,000 TEUs in 1H2022.

Outlook - While demand for container shipping services has stabilised, freight rates are expected to remain higher than prepandemic levels due to the lag in container vessel supply to meet demand. Potential softening of container trade growth going forward and in view of uncertainties in the global economic environment arising from high inflation and interest rates. The remaining four of its six newbuilds secured on long-term charter will be progressively delivered from the fourth quarter of 2022.

My Take - The profit results of Samudera for last year 2021 is good (a record), this year 2022 better (breaking 2021 record), and next year 2023 is probably in between these two records.  The above highlighted sentence seems to mirror the same.  It appears that too close monitoring of the shipping index may not be rewarding.

Admission - Being yo-yo, given its cyclical nature, I have panicked and reduced my stake during the sharp correction prior to the result announcement. "Half empty, half full"

Vested