Oil Prices

[karlmarx]

Offshore oil drilling which has a higher break even cost will face increased difficulty to survive if oil price stay lower for longer. This means offshore vessel builders and/or lessors such as Keppel, Semb Marine, and Mermaid will continue to suffer. The smaller support businesses such as MTQ, Ezion, and the numerous support vessel owners/builders will continue to suffer as well.

[vingaard]

It will be a very long winter for oil. I do wonder whether the local banks will see further impairment of loans. They are priced as if the offshore sector will not see further bankruptcies.


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[chialc88]

buying Kepcorp was a tough decision.

it was at it's lowest point and practically nobody wanted the stock.

From my trading records, the one and only purchase was done in Q1 2016,
reason: is something that I cannot disclose (ha ha, injected some suspends).

Collected 3 dividends and noticed that head winds to O&G is really strong.

It's like the entire world gang up to bully Singapore
erh... correction, O&G sector... I meant.

Sold last week (again one swing) as I foresee a long up-hill battle...
From heart to heart:



Namun apa yang ku dapatkan
Kau kini berpindah haluan

Kau berpindah hati
Dari hati ke hati
Sakit di hati
Tanpa kau fikirkan hatiku ini

[specuvestor]

^^ Talk about "god":

(Bloomberg) -- Andy Hall, the oil trader sometimes known in markets as “God,” is closing down his main hedge fund after big losses in the first half of the year, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
The capitulation of one of the best-known figures in the commodities industry comes after muted oil prices wrong-footed traders from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to BP Plc’s in-house trading unit. Hall’s flagship Astenbeck Master Commodities Fund II lost almost 30 percent through June, a separate person with knowledge of the matter said, asking not to be identified because the details are private.
Oil trader Andy Hall is said to be closing down his main hedge fund. Bloomberg’s Alex Nussbaum reports.
“I’m shocked,” said Danilo Onorino, a portfolio manager at Dogma Capital SA in Lugano, Switzerland. “This is the end of an era. He’s one of the top oil traders ever.”
Hall shot to fame during the global financial crisis when Citigroup Inc. revealed that, in a single year, he pocketed $100 million trading oil for the U.S. bank. His career stretches back to the 1970s and includes stints at BP and legendary trading house Phibro Energy Inc., where he was chief executive officer.
“Andy Hall is one of the grandees of oil trading,” said Jorge Montepeque, a senior vice president of trading at Italian energy major Eni SpA.
A representative of Astenbeck Capital Management LLC declined to comment. The Southport, Connecticut-based company managed $1.4 billion at the end of last year, according to a Securities and Exchange Commission filing.
Hall is the latest high-profile commodity hedge-fund manager to succumb to the industry’s low volatility and lack of trending markets. At least 10 asset managers in natural resources have closed since 2012, including Clive Capital LLP and Centaurus Energy LP. Goldman Sachs reported its worst-ever result trading commodities in the second quarter.
Oil hedge funds such as Astenbeck wagered earlier this year that production cuts led by Saudi Arabia and Russia would send prices climbing. Yet, their betsbackfired as U.S. shale producers boosted output and Libya and Nigeria recovered from outages caused by domestic disturbances and civil war.
Against Tide
Hall consistently pushed against the bearish tide on oil this year, using investor letters to cast doubt on data showing rising crude supplies and arguingthat a sustained rally was on its way.
Then last month he changed tack, telling investors that the global crude market had “materially worsened” and that prices may be stuck around $50 a barrel or below. Brent crude fell 22 percent from the start of the year to a low in June, and though it has since rallied, it’s still only about $52.
The fund closure shows “how the world of forecasting the oil market changed after the shale revolution,” said Anas Alhajji, an independent analyst and former chief economist at private-equity group NGP Energy Capital Management LLC.
Hall, 66, is also a prodigious collector of art who, with his wife and their foundation, owns more than 5,000 pieces by several hundred artists including Andy Warhol and Joseph Beuys. They exhibit some of it at Schloss Derneburg, a 1,000-year-old castle in Germany they bought in 2006.
“This is sad news,” said Jean-Jacques Duhot, chief investment officer at Arctic Blue Capital, a commodity trading adviser with nearly $200 million in assets. “Andy Hall has been one of the most respected risk-takers in the energy markets over the past few decades.”

[weijian]

To us (an individual), oil prices mean the pain of a loss of an oil related stock or job, or simply the joy of cheaper petrol at the pump. For some Arab countries, it could mean a cut in subsidies and less prosperity as a whole. For Venezuela, it is spiraling into a life and death situation.

The worsen case scenario of civil war looks highly probable for Venezuela now. What about the odds of a 2nd Arab Spring? (the odds should be substantially higher compared to previous now)

Chevron, Total Pull Foreign Staff in Venezuela

Political crisis fueling violence in nation reliant on crude
Statoil also says it’s removed all remaining expatriate staff

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...-venezuela

[cyclone]

It'll Take Oil Above $50 for Shale Boom, Oil Sands to Pay Off

By Carlos Caminada
September 29, 2017, 3:11 AM GMT+8 September 29, 2017, 12:01 PM GMT+8

Shale drillers and oil sands producers have posted some healthy profits so far this year, but it’ll take oil consistently above $50 a barrel for their investments to pay off in the long run.

That’s the conclusion of a Moody’s Investors Service study of 37 exploration and production companies in the U.S. and Canada released Thursday. It’s also why legendary hedge fund manager Jim Chanos, who’s shorting shale driller Continental Resources Inc., says independent explorers have been a bad deal for shareholders.

Shale oil producers “are creatures of the capital markets,” Chanos told Bloomberg TV’s Julia Chatterley, Joe Weisenthal and Scarlet Fu. “Because the wells deplete so quickly, they constantly need to raise money to replace the assets.”

More details in https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...to-pay-off

[weijian]

Structural headwinds for oil prices?

Trump expected to decertify Iran nuclear deal, official says

[WASHINGTON] US President Donald Trump is expected to announce soon that he will decertify the landmark international deal to curb Iran's nuclear programme, a senior administration official said on Thursday, in a step that potentially could cause the 2015 accord to unravel.

The official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Mr Trump is also expected to roll out a broader US strategy on Iran that would be more confrontational. The Trump administration has frequently criticised Iran's conduct in the Middle East.

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/governme...icial-says

[BlueKelah]

Structural headwinds for oil prices?

Trump expected to decertify Iran nuclear deal, official says

[WASHINGTON] US President Donald Trump is expected to announce soon that he will decertify the landmark international deal to curb Iran's nuclear programme, a senior administration official said on Thursday, in a step that potentially could cause the 2015 accord to unravel.

The official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Mr Trump is also expected to roll out a broader US strategy on Iran that would be more confrontational. The Trump administration has frequently criticised Iran's conduct in the Middle East.

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/governme...icial-says

probably nothing will come of his talk about this. meanwhile, looks like the oil is on the way down again. WTI big dip below $50 again.

[Behappyalways]

Desperate call???

OPEC calls on US shale oil producers to accept 'shared responsibility' of slashing global supply
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/10/opec-cal...ility.html

[Behappyalways]

Oil will crash to $10 a barrel with electric vehicle revolution, strategist says
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/13/oil-will...-says.html