Oil Prices

[Wildreamz]

Better believe it, EV growth is one of the inevitable trends in technology 

http://www.ev-volumes.com/country/total-...e-volumes/
http://www.vox.com/science-and-health/20...oil-market

Full disclosure: vested in Tesla and BYD.

[BlueKelah]

Yup the other new / old tech upcoming is fuel cell EV. Major car makers like Toyota Honda Hyundai have made recent cars and buses. Zero emissions from the vehicle but the hydrogen processed from natural gas does involve some pollution but apparently 30%less than producing petrol.

Can just tank up like petrol cars for around 500km+ but very limited number of stations. Most countries dun have this tech yet.

However if Tesla and other pure EV are successful this year, unlikely for major car maker to continue this type of vehicles. It will be much easier to jump on the pure EV bandwagon than roll out capital intensive hydrogen pump stations.

Oh yah and I am betting the combo of solar power stations, solar panelled buildings and EV will be hard to beat in the near future.

Sent from my MotoG3 using Tapatalk

[Wildreamz]

Indeed, it is a battle of platform. Unless fuel cells are much better than Petrol or EVs, it is very hard to fight off the incumbent. 

EVs are getting increasingly cost competitive with Internal Combustion Vehicles, it's charger network has grown exponentially in many countries. Large automotive companies and startups have already made large capital investments in related technology, it has started to gain traction among consumers etc. I highly doubt another competing technology would stop their momentum now.

[Sampling]

In my humble opinion after being in the energy industry and from an engineering background myself, I actually think EVs consume more "fuel" than a conventional petrol vehicle.

Key lies in the following: 1) Storage of power 2) Transport of Power 3) Generation of Power. 4) Mechanical vs Electronics

For 1 - You charge your fuel cell, moments whereby you're not using it, you're also using "fuel".

For 2 - Transporting fuel for petrol cars much cheaper than EVs. For EVs, you need a "network" to bring the power from source to destination.

For 3 - Bearing in mind a power station primarily still uses fossil fuels.

For 4 - Deterioration rate for electronics stuff happens faster vs mechanical stuff. First to go is the fuel cell (every 3 years with <70% efficiency after 2 years).

[Wildreamz]

In my humble opinion after being in the energy industry and from an engineering background myself, I actually think EVs consume more "fuel" than a conventional petrol vehicle.

Key lies in the following: 1) Storage  of power 2) Transport of Power 3) Generation of Power. 4) Mechanical vs Electronics

For 1 - You charge your fuel cell, moments whereby you're not using it, you're also using "fuel".

For 2 - Transporting fuel for petrol cars much cheaper than EVs. For EVs, you need a "network" to bring the power from source to destination.

For 3 - Bearing in mind a power station primarily still uses fossil fuels.

For 4 - Deterioration rate for electronics stuff happens faster vs mechanical stuff. First to go is the fuel cell (every 3 years with <70% efficiency after 2 years).

Fair points.

1) Storage
Yes, Teslas discharges 1% everyday, even while not in use. Considering that cars are parked 95% of the time, it may be an issue. But bear in mind that per mile traveled, EVs are much more cost efficient than ICEs.

2) Transporting of Power
I highly doubt transporting petrol is cheaper than using the power grid to charge. Moreoever, being able to charge at home, saves trips to petrol kiosks.

3) Generation of Power
Yes, especially in Singapore, BUT, globally the situation is improving every year. Moreover, it is still more efficient to generate power in power plants than using Internal Combustion Engines (ICEs).

4) Mechanical vs Electronics
You will be surprised by the maintenance cost of ICEs Also batteries (not fuel cells) today last much longer. Teslas have 8 year warrenty on their battery, BYD has 10-12 years warranty on their battery.

And we have not begin talking about the negative externalities of ICEs yet:

[Sampling]

In my humble opinion after being in the energy industry and from an engineering background myself, I actually think EVs consume more "fuel" than a conventional petrol vehicle.

Key lies in the following: 1) Storage  of power 2) Transport of Power 3) Generation of Power. 4) Mechanical vs Electronics

For 1 - You charge your fuel cell, moments whereby you're not using it, you're also using "fuel".

For 2 - Transporting fuel for petrol cars much cheaper than EVs. For EVs, you need a "network" to bring the power from source to destination.

For 3 - Bearing in mind a power station primarily still uses fossil fuels.

For 4 - Deterioration rate for electronics stuff happens faster vs mechanical stuff. First to go is the fuel cell (every 3 years with <70% efficiency after 2 years).

Fair points.

1) Storage
Yes, Teslas discharges 1% everyday, even while not in use. Considering that cars are parked 95% of the time, it may be an issue. But bear in mind that per mile traveled, EVs are much more cost efficient than ICEs.

2) Transporting of Power
I highly doubt transporting petrol is cheaper than using the power grid to charge. Moreoever, being able to charge at home, saves trips to petrol kiosks.

3) Generation of Power
Yes, especially in Singapore, BUT, globally the situation is improving every year. Moreover, it is still more efficient to generate power in power plants than using Internal Combustion Engines (ICEs).

4) Mechanical vs Electronics
You will be surprised by the maintenance cost of ICEs Also batteries (not fuel cells) today last much longer. Teslas have 8 year warrenty on their battery, BYD has 10-12 years warranty on their battery.

And we have not begin talking about the negative externalities of ICEs yet:

For Transporting of power, you're talking about the trips to the station. Think about the things involved to get power to your home. There's more to it than it seems. Think infra/manpower/tech involved getting power from the PowerPlants to your socket at home.

For Generation of power, yes more efficient as the "green folks" would always argue, but you're using the theory of how much you generate always equals to how much you consume. Need to be aware that the higher the power generated, the higher the wastage %. For petrol vehicles, less efficient but what you generate gets consumed right after. Unless it comes from Solar, whereby you don't mind wasting the extra energy from the Sun, you'll have this problem.  

For the maintenance you're purely coming from a consumer perspective. Energy and resources are always spent building new fuel cells + electronics parts.

I'm purely coming from a "fuel" or energy consumption perspective... Are EVs more "green" than petrol cars ? my humble opinion is currently no. Future? I don't know.

[yeokiwi]

For Generation of power, yes more efficient as the "green folks" would always argue, but you're using the theory of how much you generate always equals to how much you consume. Need to be aware that the higher the power generated, the higher the wastage %. For petrol vehicles, less efficient but what you generate gets consumed right after. Unless it comes from Solar, whereby you don't mind wasting the extra energy from the Sun, you'll have this problem.

Petrol Internal Combustion Engine efficiency is around 20% while the power plant power generation in Singapore is more than 40% .
Power Transmission loss is around 1-2% in Singapore.
So, in general it is still cheaper to use power off the grid for transportation.
Power substations are available at every neighbourhood and so HVAC lines from substations for charging are just one-off investments.

And normally, power plants in Singapore are ramped up during the day and are typically running sub-optimally in the night due to less demand. So, if most of the transports are charging at night, it will help to balance the power usage for the country and less energy is wasted to keep the generators running in the night.

Pollution control is also easier as pollutants are emitted only at power plants and can be filtered with more elaborate setup. That will translate to health benefits which are financially immeasurable.

[egghead]

GCC countries are going to introduce VAT soon.

Gulf states, including Qatar, aim for VAT adoption in January 2018

[BlueKelah]

How Ironic

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OPEC's Top Producer Saudi Is Turning to Wind and Solar Power

• Solar and wind plants will cut need to use oil in power plants
  
• Expanding natural gas production to support new industry
  

The nation most identified with its massive oil reserves is turning to wind and solar to generate power at home and help extend the life of its crucial crude franchise.
Starting this year, Saudi Arabia plans to develop almost 10 gigawatts of renewable energy by 2023, starting with wind and solar plants in its vast northwestern desert. The effort could replace the equivalent of 80,000 barrels of oil a day now burned for power. Add in natural gas projects set to start later this decade, and the Saudis could quadruple that number, according to Wood MacKenzie Ltd. That could supplant all the crude burned in the kingdom during its winter months.

[BlueKelah]

Nice long article. Is the increasing use of electric vehicles really starting to bite? Is this the beginning of the end for oil? 

Or is the American economy just sick post QE and not really growing as well as statistics seem to be showing??

Biggest Gasoline Glut In 27 Years Could Crash Oil Markets