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15-11-2016, 07:33 AM
(This post was last modified: 15-11-2016, 07:36 AM by BlueKelah.)
(15-11-2016, 04:24 AM)CY09 Wrote: If President trump is to follow on of his promised energy policy of opening up US oil reserves and becoming fully energy independent; my view of oil becomes more bearish.
This is because it will just add to the worsening oil supply glut. This compounds the misery of OPEC's nations still increasing their production levels. If US really starts to ramp up production as well, I will not be surprised that the scenario of supply > demand stays till 2020. And from then, the world will have to spend 4-5 years working through the oversupply backlog.
It will be a decade of oil overhang
Yes that's why I am pretty bearish on OnG sector for now. Especially with decreasing shale and gas extraction costs. I dun think we will see the bottom until prices hit $20-$30 and see some real "blood on the streets"
But the thing that will probably cause an extended oil overhang is electric vehicles. If Tesla can make it profitable, we will be coming one step closer to almost no more reliance on Oil, though to generate electricity we will still need gas for those gas power plants.. Especially if the bigger vehicles like buses / trains and trucks start going full electric or even hybrid electric.
I am sure there will be a new model of EV that will have a big topside solar panel extending their 1 charge range even further now that panels are getting so cheap. If you combine that with exchangeable "Plug and Play" battery, you can probably do a day trip from SG to KL and back with just a couple of spare batteries in the boot. Imagine that!
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01-12-2016, 11:05 AM
(This post was last modified: 01-12-2016, 11:05 AM by weijian.)
Surprising that various stances were reversed (Saudi insisting that Iran must cut too, and Russia only promising to curb increases). With more record capacity coming online for Russia and war-torn Iraq, it remains to be seen whether these agreements can be enforced. In the meanwhile, those small petroleum states and those high cost producers (shale gas, offshore) can have a slight breather.
OPEC Agrees to Cut Production in Drive to End Record Glut
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...en-on-iran
OPEC confounded its doubters and sent crude oil prices soaring by agreeing to its first production cuts in eight years. The deal, designed to drain record global oil inventories, overcame disagreements between the group’s three largest producers -- Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq -- and ended a flirtation with free markets that started in 2014. It was also broader than many had expected, extending beyond OPEC. Most strikingly, Russia agreed to unprecedented cuts to its own output.
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(01-12-2016, 11:05 AM)weijian Wrote: Surprising that various stances were reversed (Saudi insisting that Iran must cut too, and Russia only promising to curb increases). With more record capacity coming online for Russia and war-torn Iraq, it remains to be seen whether these agreements can be enforced. In the meanwhile, those small petroleum states and those high cost producers (shale gas, offshore) can have a slight breather.
OPEC Agrees to Cut Production in Drive to End Record Glut
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...en-on-iran
OPEC confounded its doubters and sent crude oil prices soaring by agreeing to its first production cuts in eight years. The deal, designed to drain record global oil inventories, overcame disagreements between the group’s three largest producers -- Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq -- and ended a flirtation with free markets that started in 2014. It was also broader than many had expected, extending beyond OPEC. Most strikingly, Russia agreed to unprecedented cuts to its own output.
Trump factor maybe? Since he is likely going to open up US oil market, encourage shale production and maybe block or tariff on OPEC oils, so no point fighting with shale now.
U.S. discovers vast oil, gas field in Permian that's three times larger than the Bakken
Wait for Tesla and Chevy EV in a few months time, even at $50 and with oil cuts, demand may just fall off a cliff.
Damn those Tesla solar roof tiles are SOOOO COOOL.. Seriously, even at a premium, many people are likely to make solar roofs in the future, since property already so expensive, the marginal costs of those tiles is not gonna affect the end price too much. FREE aircon/water heater/charging, no need worry about escalating costs of electric bill.
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hi bluekelah,
you never fail to amaze me with some of the new info you always tend to post 
I think the lesson I learnt over the last 2 years of this thread, is that trying to predict where oil prices is heading, is futile for the outsider. I also think that with our world so inter-connected and so many possible "alternate histories", it is a shame if we can explain certain outcomes by just a single dominant factor (eg. trump factor to explain OPEC decision)
On the question of solar roofs, some time ago, there was a newspaper article detailing a person who retrofitted a 5figure solar panel on his/her rooftop (and I think he/she even took a loan for that). As usual, our VBs (with their usual discipline) dissected the cost vs returns and I think besides feel good (about saving the earth), there is no monetary gains at all after amortizing those equipment. But of course, humans are not rational. I live on the 14th floor and able to oversee ~100private houses. There are ~5 of them with some solar panels and with this small sample size, I roughly extrapolate that 3-5% of the population is already been irrational.
P.S. people are not going to mind if you package the solar panel into the house. But if you ask them to add in it after they bought the house, that's another issue. That's also why most of us are ok with buying a higher spec car with 7inch LED screen for extra 5k, but wouldn't pay 1k to upgrade the existing 5inch LED screen.
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that's the beauty of the forum. I like bluekelah's comments because it allows me to see the other side of the argument.
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01-12-2016, 03:32 PM
(This post was last modified: 01-12-2016, 05:15 PM by BlueKelah.)
@money : Yes sometimes I feel like a disruptor 
@weijian : lol we live in uncertain but rapidly changing times. So many disruptor technology nowadays. I read they are developing one or two person electric drone carriers now for taxi transport. Very practical and exciting tech.
The solar roof thing will need a different calculation as it is not a typical panel but the tiles itself solar and completely replace the usual tiles, so there are some savings there, but of course only for new building or for people looking to replace their old roofs. As with new things costs will go down with mass market production. Compared with just 5 years ago, solar panel is now pretty dirt cheap, most of the cost is in the electrical system rather than the panels themselves.
sent from my Galaxy Note 7
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disruption or not, the rational is the same, the product and services must be the most efficient! then it will stand out and be sustainable!
how about solar HDB walls+wind farms on the roof top too?  we have tall 40-50 storeys HDBs, so use them well!
but main point is still the storage battery which is holding the charge.
SOLAR+WIND here we come!!
1) Try NOT to LOSE money!
2) Do NOT SELL in BEAR, BUY-BUY-BUY! invest in managements/companies that does the same!
3) CASH in hand is KING in BEAR!
4) In BULL, SELL-SELL-SELL!
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(01-12-2016, 10:33 PM)brattzz Wrote: disruption or not, the rational is the same, the product and services must be the most efficient! then it will stand out and be sustainable!
how about solar HDB walls+wind farms on the roof top too? we have tall 40-50 storeys HDBs, so use them well!
but main point is still the storage battery which is holding the charge.
SOLAR+WIND here we come!!
Solar tech IMHO still far from being practical.
Why?
1. Storage of Power - Biggest problem as you have low or no control over the power generation process. Cloudy days, rainy day, sunny days... All variables that usually "solar marketers" do not accurately represent to you. Cost of storage is also high. Battery efficiency deteriorates over time. After 3 years, you need to change.
2. Maintenance - Most people underestimate the amount of maintenance you need to make. Unlike roofs or walls, you can hope the rain water washes stuff off a roof or probably things like bird Sh** doesn't matter to the roof. Solar panels on the other hand is a different thing all together. conversion efficiency deteriorates drastically if parts of the cell is dirty. If gov pushes for every building to have solar panels... I'll start a solar panel cleaning agency!
3. Deteriorating Electronic parts - the rate of deterioration of semi conductors, metals, etc or stuff that make up the electronics that enables solar to be harnessed and stored depends on weather conditions. Sorry to say heat is not a good friend to electronic parts. This will mean higher cost in maintenance as well or you'll find your power generation efficiency going lower. Efficiency of the solar cells also deteriorates over time...
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I am more interested in the visible demand supply factors- how much is production, how many vlcc are in anchorage's and world demand.
From what I am seeing, Singapore 4 anchorage's are filled with vlcc just idling as a oil holding area. Even at the reduced opec agreed rate, it is still supply exceeding demand.
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Before you speak, listen. Before you write, think. Before you spend, earn. Before you invest, investigate. Before you criticize, wait. Before you pray, forgive. Before you quit, try. Before you retire, save. Before you die, give. –William A. Ward
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