Oil Prices

[CityFarmer]

If fed hikes the rate, probably the output will drop further and larger...

US shale output drop seen for 11th straight month in Oct: EIA
13 Sep 2016 08:50
[NEW YORK] US shale production is expected to fall for an 11th consecutive month in October, according to a US government forecast released on Monday, on the back of a two-year global rout in oil markets.

October oil production is set to drop by 61,000 barrels per day to 4.41 million bpd, according to the US Energy Information Administration's drilling productivity report. That is the lowest output number since March 2014.
...
REUTERS

Source: Business Times Breaking News

[BlueKelah]

A preliminary agreement which Iran will not have to cap.

OPEC Agrees to First Oil Output Cut in Eight Years
[The group agreed to drop production to a range of 32.5 to 33 million barrels per day, said Iran’s Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh, following a meeting in Algiers. While some members of OPEC will have to cut output, Iran won’t have to freeze production, he said. Many of the details remain to be worked out and the group won’t decide on targets for each country until its next meeting at the end of November.

The lower end of the production target equates to a nearly 750,000 barrels-a-day drop from what OPEC said it pumped in August.

"OPEC showed once again it can deftly manage market sentiment with verbal intervention," said Bob McNally, founder of oil consultancy firm The Rapidan Group in Washington. "As to whether it will implement real supply management, details and time will tell but that is hardly certain from the Algiers meeting outcome."]

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However new cheap way of ramping up offshore oil... others are pumping more than ever and wont be capping.

How Actual Nuts and Bolts Are Bringing Down Oil Prices

[At Statoil, the three wells drilled at its Snorre B platform cost an average 170 million kroner ($21 million) compared with about 490 million kroner for previous projects, according to the Stavanger, Norway-based company. That means oil obtained by the platform, which began pumping some 80,000 barrels a day, costs an average of $10 a barrel.]

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WTI oil now jump up to 47+se. Of course market will rally up up up today , but for how long?

[chew]

Those looking for oil to shoot up probably will end up disappointed, but I agree with commentators that a floor here has been put in - who's going to benefit in this scenario?

[Bibi]

Those looking for oil price to go below $30 will also be disappointed.

[CityFarmer]

Those looking for oil price to go below $30 will also be disappointed.

It seems likely the case, at least in the market players' mind...

Entire oil futures curve moves above $50 as financial confidence in crude rises

SINGAPORE - U.S. oil futures held above $50 per barrel on Friday as the entire crude forward curve pushed above that level in a sign that financial markets have increasing confidence in the sector.
...
http://www.todayonline.com/business/enti...rude-rises

[BlueKelah]

Those looking for oil price to go below $30 will also be disappointed.

It seems likely the case, at least in the market players' mind...

Entire oil futures curve moves above $50 as financial confidence in crude rises

SINGAPORE - U.S. oil futures held above $50 per barrel on Friday as the entire crude forward curve pushed above that level in a sign that financial markets have increasing confidence in the sector.
...
http://www.todayonline.com/business/enti...rude-rises

I am still bearish and think $30 oil is coming soon again. There has not really been much "blood on the streets" in this sector yet.

1) Oil freeze / cap by OPEC will be hard to maintain, in addition Iran is still allowed to pump as they like. IIRC the last cap they tried some nations still just continue pump as they like. 
2) Any price above $50 will allow shale supply to ramp up again, allow them to hedge and shale keeps getting cheaper to produce. And USA is not the only shale place, this technology will get more and more widely used the cheaper it becomes.
3) There is already a lot of oil sitting around in oil tanker floating around hoping to profit from contango trade.
4) Electric/automated car/bus/trucks etc as a DISRUPTOR.
5) Global economy continues to be very bad affecting demand.

So the only reason for oil to go up is supposedly "improving" US economy and the "oil freeze" which is only agreed in talks, nothing is signed yet. Of course that's just what those speculators like to pump prices up

[BlueKelah]

They can talk the talk, but can they walk the walk?

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Oil down on OPEC doubts as it floats six-month output cap plan

[But Igor Sechin, Russia's most influential oil executive and the head of Rosneft, told Reuters in an interview his company will not cut or freeze oil production as part of a possible agreement with OPEC.]

[specuvestor]

he can go talk to Putin

[BlueKelah]

Dunno what's going on in Russia, I thought everyone supports putin

Sent from my MotoG3 using Tapatalk

[Bibi]

I read in an article that Putin doesnt have full control over private companies unlike China. In India, the Central Government has no full control or say over its States Gov.