Oil Prices

[BlueKelah]

Saudi Prince Says He Could Add a Million Barrels Immediately

Saudi Arabia could raise crude output by more than a million barrels a day immediately if there was demand for it, said the kingdom’s Deputy Crown Prince, as he reiterated the nation would only agree to freeze production if all major producers including Iran do the same.


Mohammed Bin Salman

Source: Saudi Arabia’s Royal Court

The world’s largest oil exporter could increase output to 11.5 million barrels a day immediately and go to 12.5 million in six to nine months "if we wanted to," Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who is also chairman of the Supreme Council of Saudi Arabian Oil Co., said in an interview Thursday. The country pumped 10.2 million barrels a day last month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
If the kingdom chose to increase investment in its oil industry, total production capacity could be increased to 20 million barrels a day, the prince said at King Salman’s private farm in Diriyah, the original home of the Al Saud royal family.

“I don’t suggest that we should produce more, but we can produce more,” said the prince, who is the king’s son, second in line to the throne and a leading force in the country’s economic policy. “We can produce 20 million barrels of oil per day if we invested in production capacity, but we can’t produce beyond 20 million.”


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oil freeze very unlikely now, ready for volatility next week

[BlueKelah]

Morning buddies, as expected, Saudi not cooperative and as above they seem to have much excess capacity that they have not "SHOW HAND" yet. Perhaps they have a certain market share they are aiming to hit to get back from shale. Markets will be tanking again after this i reckon. Get ready for shopping season again!!
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Oil Plunges After Output Talks Fail Amid Saudi Demands Over Iran

• No Doha deal as Saudi insists all OPEC members must join
  
• Russia says it was surprised by some nations changing position
  

Oil tumbled by the most in two months after output talks Sunday between the world’s biggest producers ended without any agreement on limiting supplies, a diplomatic failure that threatens to renew the rout in prices.
Futures fell as much as 6.8 percent in New York, the biggest intraday drop since Feb. 1. The summit in the Qatari capital, which dragged on for more than ten hours beyond its initially scheduled conclusion, finished with no final accord. Discussions stumbled after Saudi Arabia and other Gulf nations wouldn’t agree to any deal unless all OPEC members joined including Iran, which wasn’t present at the meeting, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak told reporters.
“The market has been so heavily positioned for a deal to go through,” Angus Nicholson, an analyst at IG Ltd. in Melbourne, said by phone. “The change of tone from the Saudis, particularly driven over the last few weeks by Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, has been quite a surprise to the market.”

West Texas Intermediate for May delivery lost as much as $2.75 to $37.61 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $38.03 at 6:54 a.m. Hong Kong time. The contract fell $1.14, or 2.8 percent, to $40.36 on Friday, the biggest decline in almost two weeks.
Brent for June settlement dropped as much as $3, or 7 percent, to $40.10 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The contract lost 74 cents, or 1.7 percent, to $43.10 on Friday. The global benchmark was at a $1.17 premium to WTI for June.
Oil ministers from 16 nations, representing about half the world’s output, gathered in the Qatari capital in a bid to stabilize the global market, the first significant attempt at coordinating oil output between the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and nations outside the group in 15 years. There were significant hurdles to any deal after Saudi Arabia’s Deputy Crown Prince said the kingdom wouldn’t restrain its production without commitments from other major producers including Iran, which has ruled out freezing for now.

[CityFarmer]

Oil price, is as unpredictable as weather nowadays...

Oil recoups heavy losses from Doha talks collapse
19 Apr 2016 06:10
[NEW YORK] The oil market late Monday recouped heavy losses spurred by the failure of major crude producers to agree curbs on output that could have firmed up the market.

Analysts said a strike that knocked out more than 60 per cent of Kuwait's production helped support the market.

Crude prices fell nearly seven per cent early in the day after producers came away from talks in the Qatari capital of Doha on Sunday empty-handed.

But by the end of trade, US benchmark West Texas Intermediate for delivery in May had largely recovered, losing 58 US cents (1.4 per cent) at US$39.78 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

In London, Brent crude for June delivery, the international benchmark, dipped just 19 US cents (0.4 per cent) to US$42.91 a barrel.
...
AFP

Source: Business Times Breaking News

[TTTI]

Oil price, is as unpredictable as weather nowadays...  

Oil recoups heavy losses from Doha talks collapse
19 Apr 2016 06:10
[NEW YORK] The oil market late Monday recouped heavy losses spurred by the failure of major crude producers to agree curbs on output that could have firmed up the market.

Analysts said a strike that knocked out more than 60 per cent of Kuwait's production helped support the market.

Crude prices fell nearly seven per cent early in the day after producers came away from talks in the Qatari capital of Doha on Sunday empty-handed.

But by the end of trade, US benchmark West Texas Intermediate for delivery in May had largely recovered, losing 58 US cents (1.4 per cent) at US$39.78 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

In London, Brent crude for June delivery, the international benchmark, dipped just 19 US cents (0.4 per cent) to US$42.91 a barrel.
...
AFP

Source: Business Times Breaking News

Yes exactly.
Everyone would be expecting a tanking in oil prices after the failure to reach a Doha concensus, instead Kuwaiti worker strike saves the day for Oil longs.
Very unpredictable and nobody can forsee that.
This is just short term though, after the strike is resolved, there'd be downward pressures again

[BlueKelah]

Yah just like the Russians who were surprised that no deal was reached, I am surprised of the bounce from Kuwait strike.

However oil futures did make a big crazy dip before the Kuwait news, so can expect another mega dip if the workers go back to work. Already they have started two plants up and running with workers from another department.

Very the volatile, still of the view that it will get worse before it gets better on the oil side. US production of oil has just barely gone below 9m bpd this last week despite oil being low for half a year already. Saudi probably aiming for US production to drop below 8m bpd before it is satisfied with its market share. After all the prince has said they can ramp up 1m bpd anytime and being arabs i bet they have plenty more stored away.

[CityFarmer]

The message, is, it takes time for Iran to fully participate in oil market, even with pretty of oil to sell. There are more than just seller and buyer in  the transaction...

Iran struggles to find enough ships for oil exports
20 Apr 2016 00:06
[LONDON] Iran faces a struggle to increase oil exports because many of its tankers are tied up storing crude, some are not seaworthy, and foreign shipowners remain reluctant to carry its cargoes.
...
REUTERS

Source: Business Times Breaking News

[BlueKelah]

Bloomberg - Kuwait Oil Workers Ending Strike After Three-Day Disruption http://bloom.bg/1S7ajhD

sent from my Galaxy Tab S

[brattzz]

why can't we face the fact that cheap oil US$10-20, is good for the world economy?!!!


everyone should start/in progress of adjusting/right-sizing their economy based on cheap oil! not expensive oil mah!

[CY09]

its not entirely good. Many economies grew rapidly due to the high levels of CAPEX development in offshore & gas.

Similarly US experienced a boom partly because of expansion in its shale gas technology and industry; and also the US financial industry lent billions to such firms. So a fall in oil prices means a contraction in activity. If oil prices goes to $10-20 per barrel, it results in 2 things.

Firstly, companies like Nam Cheong, sembmarine and Keppel will face a drought of orders. Bad for some countries in ASEAN and bad for banks who lend them money. Secondly, US may see a rise in defaults because many of its oil companies will find its not cash flow positive to continue production. Its similar to the current situation at Scotland where losses are piling for exporting oil.

[brattzz]

CY09,

Supply & Demand, what goes up must come down, it's precisely that skyhigh oil prices forced investments in new-technology in shale oil/gas. This is the leveler mah.

US Financial went on a crazy lending spree, when FEDs kept interest rates at near-zero for soo long! hey! free credits why not?!
end up over supply world wide...

The longer O&G companies denied this, and hope for oil prices recovery, the bigger the impact to these O&G companies...
This is the new norm, and ALL must adjusted to the new norm, or face bankruptcy.

Banks should take the lead and start to write-down now!

Feel that Kepcorp is hit double whammy, MOG & Property... while SEMCORP Ind is hit at Sembmarine only... will accumulate!