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Maintenance and Decommissioning offers opportunities. Is Keppel, Sembawang or other O&G companies in SGX capitalizing on this?
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scot...s-35512217
North Sea could lose 150 platforms within 10 years.
Excerpts:
The estimate for decommissioning 146 offshore platforms in the seven years to 2016 is part of forecast expenditure of nearly £35bn over the next 25 years.
That could be reduced by nearly £5bn if techniques change and depend on so-called "super-heavy lift vessels", says Ben Wilby, of Douglas-Westwood.....
"The time for many North Sea offshore oil and gas platforms to be decommissioned is fast approaching, with the oil price collapse bringing the commerciality of numerous fields into question," according to a preview of the report.
"This is likely to lead to a large growth in the number of decommissioning projects planned, putting enormous amounts of pressure on the supply chain. If the industry is well prepared, there will be a major opportunities and rewards for participation in the sector."
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(31-08-2015, 09:59 AM)HitandRun Wrote: You are 1 brave soul. I cannot, for the life of me, think of a reason to invest in Chesapeake at the moment, except for short term trading objectives.
CHK drop almost 50% overnight and trading was halted for a while. Bounced up to 2.38 before closing down 33% at 2.05. A nimble speculator might make money but there's plenty of lesser mortals (like me) around who couldn't. Perhaps a high profile bankruptcy like CHK might bring more sanity to the oil patch...
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09-02-2016, 07:58 PM
(This post was last modified: 09-02-2016, 08:00 PM by CY09.
Edit Reason: Edits
)
Stuck between the decision of incurring continuous small cash loss and a one time decommissioning cash cost, it seems many rig owners still prefer the former and wait for a rebound. However, all this is going to add to growing supplies which is not met by increasing demand.
From the way, it is going, rig owners are likely to be the losers. To me, the endgame is for highly levered companies like CHK to declare bankruptcy and sell off their rigs/oil fields on a cheap. New owners will then hold these oil assets and bade their time before drilling when oil returns to $60. Singapore is unlikely to benefit at all from decommissioning too.
<My prophecy>
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09-02-2016, 08:55 PM
(This post was last modified: 09-02-2016, 09:00 PM by BlueKelah.)
Cy Ha-ha my prophecy of $30 oil already true. My guess is $20 or lower and around 2-3 years before recovery as it will take some time for companies that hedge and companies that are holding out to collapse. Debt is a sure killer of companies during bad times. In fact if fuel saving technology and energy use shifts more to renewables to provide electricity for electric vehicles, oil could become just another cheap commodity.
Many vehicles globally are running hybrid systems, its only matter of time for transportation the biggest user of oil of around 80% to go electric and electric production coming more from renewables and less from coal and gas...
Besides, Iran is still gonna ramp up production and these couple months flood market with their millions of barrels on offshore ships.
Fantastic time for cashed up value hunters like us though.
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FYI
As 2017 oil rebounds to $45, U.S. drillers begin to hedge anew
NEW YORK - U.S. oil producers reeling from an 18-month price rout have cautiously begun hedging future production this week, fearing this may be their best chance yet to lock in a $45 a barrel lifeline for 2017 and beyond.
As oil markets rebounded from 12-year lows this week, U.S. shale companies - for the first time in months - started inquiring and placing new hedges for the next few years, according to three market sources familiar with money flows.
...
http://www.todayonline.com/business/2017...hedge-anew
“夏则资皮，冬则资纱，旱则资船，水则资车” - 范蠡
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According to the data, solar beat natural gas capacity additions for the first time ever, with 29.5 percent of all new electric generating capacity met by solar power in 2015.
US has a record-breaking year for solar power
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/22/us-has-a-...power.html
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(23-02-2016, 02:19 PM)Behappyalways Wrote: According to the data, solar beat natural gas capacity additions for the first time ever, with 29.5 percent of all new electric generating capacity met by solar power in 2015.
US has a record-breaking year for solar power
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/22/us-has-a-...power.html
If folks are interested in the comparison between coal, solar, etc. cost of generation, you may wish to refer to the following link:
http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/electri...ration.cfm
The main reason for such additions are not due to the competitiveness of the solar PV/thermal per se but government incentives. I remembered that not so long ago, Germany and Spain were the honeypots for the solar PV industry but the gates were closed shortly after that. IMHO, the main impediment for greater adoption of green energy (including wind and solar) is (cheap) energy storage. If and when energy storage challenge is solved, green energy will be able to stand on its own against coal/crude/natural gas.
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http://www.marketwatch.com/story/genel-f...2016-03-03
Pretty curious why so many companies are predicting oil in the mid 40s for their incoming fy, isn't it hard to reach when oil is in its mid 30s?
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03-03-2016, 08:08 PM
(This post was last modified: 03-03-2016, 08:18 PM by BlueKelah.)
(03-03-2016, 05:50 PM)CY09 Wrote: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/genel-f...2016-03-03
Pretty curious why so many companies are predicting oil in the mid 40s for their incoming fy, isn't it hard to reach when oil is in its mid 30s?
They are hoping for mid 40s as that is around break even for lower cost shale oils and profitable for OPEC nations. This will probably allow them to get continued funding from banks as well if you believe in conspiracy.
Trading wise, oil so Volatile now can easily up to 40+ but i do think that price should be mid 20s for a while. Global demand fundamentals really have not changed much whilst supply is still big oversupply... Rig count is down in USA but production is all time high still and I am sure the race is on with Iran and the rest of OPEC to see who can pump the most 
http://money.cnn.com/2016/03/01/investin...cord-opec/
Sorry, OPEC: U.S. oil production at 43-year high
Also OnG bankruptcies have spiked, but there are over a thousand in this sector and only less than 100 have filed for bankruptcy which is not even 1%
http://money.cnn.com/2016/02/11/investin...ies-spike/
I am sure the Arabs will continue to pump as much as they can at least until they see oil production drop in the states.
Remember the last bounce to 60+ last year after the dip to 30s, didn't last that long, especially when storage silos are overflowing. We could be seeing a drop to 20s or below pretty soon. It's the end of oil boom cycle and the chances that a bottom has not reached yet is much higher than that of a bottom already reached...
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