Oil Prices

[Behappyalways]

Oil 'Game of Chicken' Still Going On Full-Force: Shilling
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/201...e-shilling

[HitandRun]

Inventories wouldn't be piling up at cushing if there isn't any surplus, and this is supposed to be peak season with the refineries running at full steam, think about whats going to happen to crude oil prices when most of these refineries go for their maintenance in Sept - Oct.

Ah.... but the world is not all American. Let's look at the latest available copy of the IEA OMR. If you look at total OECD inventories, it is something like 150 million barrels above trend in May '15, largely contributed by the US. (Incidentally, the amount might have been depleted by 40-50 million by now). If the 3 million barrels a day of surplus arose during the past 1 year, we should expect to see a billion barrels built up and we don't really expect the poorer non-OECD countries to be storing the balance, do we? So a 100 million barrels (or less than 300kbd normalised on an annual basis) sounds more like a rounding error.

The US is importing a lot of crude but most of it is going straight into storage (due to deep contango), the fact that WTI is trading at a $7 discount to brent tells us that the glut is worst in the US.

The previous built up was due to the traders capitalising on the contango but inventories are being run down in the past 2-3 months. The reason for WTI to be trading at a discount is somewhat complex if one looks back historically but what I can say is that end-users in US are paying for product prices based on the BRENT benchmark, which means that refiners are making all the delta.

[BlueKelah]

Hedges funds are hunting for bargain now...

Hedge Funds Boost Energy Holdings as Oil Rout Brings Opportunity

Hedge fund managers are betting hundreds of millions of dollars that Cheniere Energy Inc., Pioneer Natural Resources Co. and Williams Cos. will be among the energy companies that survive the worst oil rout in decades.
Seth Klarman of Baupost Group bought 898,063 shares in Texas shale explorer Pioneer during the second quarter while Richard Perry’s firm added 6.26 million shares of Williams, according to regulatory filings.

Energy investors have lost more than $1.3 trillion in shareholder value as the price of oil dropped about 60 percent from its peak last year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. And now hedge fund managers are on the hunt for bargains, said oil and gas restructuring specialist John Castellano at AlixPartners in Chicago. Many companies are struggling to survive as revenue falls and banks curtail their access to credit.

“Not every oil and gas company is distressed,” Castellano said. “There are good companies out there that have good assets, but because the entire market has come down everyone’s equity has been hit by a reduction in value.”
...
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2...pportunity

Opposite of what Buffett is doing leh. He been selling energy since beginning this year in march when he sold exxon mobil....

http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2015/08/1...ell-varco/

[CityFarmer]

The oil prices continue their down-trends...

Oil prices fall again as U.S. and Asian demand looks to weaken

SINGAPORE - Oil prices dipped again in early Asian trading on Tuesday as traders expected lower refinery consumption after the U.S. summer, while Asia's weakening economies and high global production raised concerns about oversupply.

U.S. crude futures were trading at $41.84 per barrel at 0014 GMT, 3 cents below their last settlement and not far off more than six-year lows touched earlier this week. Brent futures were at $48.61 a barrel, down 13 cents but still some way from their 2015-low of $45.19.

Both crude oil benchmarks are now almost a third below their last peak from May, and analysts say more falls could lie ahead.
...
http://www.todayonline.com/business/oil-...oks-weaken

[HitandRun]

A NYT article for a lazy afternoon:

Is this just the beginning?

[HitandRun]

An incisive analysis by Forbes

Edit link for clarity.

[BlueKelah]

now that WTI has hit USD $40 level, it seems $30 is not so far away.

$30 soon baby!!

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/19/oil-bear-...rtman.html

[greengiraffe]

Keep staying cheerful as the entire world will be drown by this tsunami... whole world is going bankrupt due to this commodity led deflation...

Banks will also go broke... new world order...

now that WTI has hit USD $40 level, it seems $30 is not so far away.

$30 soon baby!!

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/19/oil-bear-...rtman.html

[lilvestor]

now that WTI has hit USD $40 level, it seems $30 is not so far away.

$30 soon baby!!

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/08/19/oil-bear-...rtman.html

I think Gartman is spot on.

[Behappyalways]

Who is going to benefit from low oil price???? Even donkey like NOL should see better results....

Not vested in Air Asia

Crude oil prices may drop below US$45, says Tony Fernandes
http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/busin...-fernandes