Oil Prices

[CityFarmer]

Oil is 57.56, what reasons is making oil boiling ? But the more negative things are, the better it is for oil, that is what i see so far.

Yewkim, break 54 triple top ( I don't know how she read the chart, because I do not see any) is about to come true. I am waiting to see. And many vested in Oil n Gas too are waiting. May oil go to 65 no matter what and bring us who are vested in them joy.

Yewkim didn't show chart, because she knew VB is a FA, rather than TA forum.

You are new to our forum. A bit of TA stuff is within tolerance, but please refrain from posting TA post, or focusing too much on price movement. VB forum is a value investing forum after all, and postings base on fundamental are the most welcomed.

Thank you

Regards
Moderator

[Petertan]

Oil is 57.56, what reasons is making oil boiling ? But the more negative things are, the better it is for oil, that is what i see so far.

Yewkim, break 54 triple top ( I don't know how she read the chart, because I do not see any) is about to come true. I am waiting to see. And many vested in Oil n Gas too are waiting. May oil go to 65 no matter what and bring us who are vested in them joy.

Yewkim didn't show chart, because she knew VB is a FA, rather than TA forum.

You are new to our forum. A bit of TA stuff is within tolerance, but please refrain from posting TA post, or focusing too much on price movement. VB forum is a value investing forum after all, and postings base on fundamental are the most welcomed.

Thank you

Regards
Moderator

I do not means that yewkim need to show chart over here. What i means is that I see the chart and I don't see any. And the fundamental of oil are reflected in the market price as in any value counter.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102617303

[specuvestor]

^^ so fundamentals are reflected in prices either $70 or $20??

If you are a perfect market theorist where only insiders can reap above average profit, why do u even bother about stocks? Just do ETF which Buffett recommended but many take out of context.

We are no prophet yet we have been talking about peaking US oil production when WTI was below $50, what was the fundamentals that were built into that market price ?

Price and value are not the same thing if you are a practitioner long enough, rather than an academic with a top down statistical view. They know the price of everything (all the more with internet nowadays) but value of nothing.

Unfortunately, Oil trader trade on perceive demand and supply, they don't use value investing. The word "trader" already designated their designation.

Just as in stock, a 10-20 % move even in a day ( not few weeks) too is not surprising, if the demand and supply of the counter is good. We always witness this in stock over at SGX, isn't it?

So we always say short term price is irrational, but long term fundamental rule. So long term, we are going to see oil at a low again, at 35$/40$, if break, then 20$/25$, hope not, because the fundamental by then will be very very bad over all.

Oil traders deliver physicals... do u do that? Please reread previous posts on cotango arbitrage. Traders have different meaning in different field, they are not speculators, just as prop traders are not just speculating but includes market making and structuring.
By your logic "brokers" are already defined by their designation

Ya volume prevails all just as the 3 penny stock kings, hope you caught that TA right

Either way $70 or $20 you are right.

[specuvestor]

Short term risk is that HF seems to have been piling into this trade

(Bloomberg) -- The drop in U.S. crude production is set to
accelerate as investment cutbacks are felt, reducing the chance
of a V-shaped recovery in output.
Reports of falling output and plummeting rig counts in the
four main shale-producing areas has left “no doubt” that
production is falling and likely to fall faster in the months
ahead, Paul Horsnell, global head of commodities research at
Standard Chartered Plc in London, said in a report. The
reduction in U.S. activity and a rebound in prices have probably
pleased Saudi Arabian policy makers, Horsnell said.
The shale oil boom sent U.S. crude output to 9.422 million
barrels a day in the week ended March 20, the highest level in
more than four decades, Energy Information Administration data
show. Production slipped in three of the following four weeks to
9.121 million. U.S. drillers have idled 56 percent of oil rigs
since October, leaving the total at 703 on April 24, according
to Baker Hughes Inc.
“A common assumption is that once prices are high enough,
the U.S. oil industry can recover very quickly in a V-shaped
pattern,” Horsnell said in the report. “We think this is
unlikely.”
The backlog of uncompleted wells, or fracklog, in North
Dakota swelled to 900 in late February. When drillers decide to
complete work they have to wait for hydraulic fracturing fluids
and completion rigs to arrive. The largest challenge may be
bringing back staff, Horsnell said.

http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/my/articl...verberates

^^agree. Capex cycle is not going to restart just because oil hits $80. It will only restart when majors see oil price sustainable at >$70 for next 18 months. There is a difference. So choose and TIME the instruments carefully. I wont be surprised most will rise in tandum but i wont be holding them for quarterly results

If one been reading this thread past 6 months, one would have a good idea where the dynamics and catalysts are coming from.

Vested in WTI futures

To wait 18 months to make sure oil price sustainable at >$70 to decide capex, is too long a time. Are you sure?

Not wait 18 months per se... Have measured confidence for next 18 months. They are not going to drill $1m test holes just because oil is going $80 next month. I also doubt they look at technical charts. Like shipbuilding, these are deep cycle industries

Thats why OPEC officially only meet twice a year.

[Petertan]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102629238

Market somehow will dictate the price irrespective of how bearish or bullish opinion we have. Now it is back up to 58$. I read yewkim predict of oil price somewhere around end Feb and decided to put my money on Pacific R and Vallianz after some analysis in mid March. Now I am sitting on handsome profit. I believe many who are vested too would like to see higher oil price which in turn will cause oil and gas counter to soar. May our wish come true. May all rejoice as oil head higher. All thanks to this wonder girl yewkim.

[FA+TA]

The Oil Rally Looks Doomed, in Five Charts
The glut remains, and producers are ready to pounce with fresh supplies.
Source: Bloomberg

[Petertan]

The Oil Rally Looks Doomed, in Five Charts
The glut remains, and producers are ready to pounce with fresh supplies.
Source: Bloomberg

Yes, it is true that there are many bad news about more oil but price still go up.Why? Either market is bonker or we are. So are we to instead that market is wrong and we are right?

Imagine have i hold this bearish view of oil after reading so many bad news of more oil in the market, I would not have vested in 2 oil counter that make me handsome profit. I believe many has miss the train.

WB said be greedy when other are fearful , be fearful when other are greedy. This statement is a fact that is easy to say but hard to put to good use.

The day i read in Marketwatch or CNBC and this thread that people start to air bullish view, I think it is time for me to be fearful. And yewkim $40 will come about after hitting $65/70, and later $20.

[specuvestor]

^^ I don't think you understand the oil sector dynamics. Schlumberger will be cutting another 11k jobs this month. Enough said

Based on EIA estimates looks like US oil production peaked in March and plateau in April. $40 is not going to happen anytime soon and certainly not within traders' patience.
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_dcus_nus_w.htm

[Petertan]

The more you try to understand , the more blurr you become. Honestly, I don't understand oil at all, but I also don't understand why people are still instead on been bearish on oil when the price heading up is telling a different story. So either market or they are wrong.

Follow the trend, the trend is your friend. But no matter what, the price is heading higher. Currently, we are just inches from $60..as of now it is 59.33.( i think this year high)

The news we read from CNBC, and marketwatch could be history ( already happen) by the time we read it. So it is actually the past. What is more important is market is anticipating the future demand. And I think market is bullish on this demand.

[BlueKelah]

U.S. oil hits 5-month high as dollar weakens