Oil Prices

[HitandRun]

How do people know the figures are bona fide ? Who actually audit the quantum ?

That's a very good question.

Inventory change = Production + Imports - Consumption

I'm very sure that Production is not a real number, i.e. it is just a number generated based on a computer model. I think it is relatively easy to record imports or collect accurate import figures. However, Consumption could be a fuzzy number. The end result => your guess is as good as mine.

[Behappyalways]

What’s Really Behind The U.S Crude Oil Build
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/really-beh...31349.html

[Petertan]

OIl is 52.63 now, oil n gas counter are soaring. Yewkim must be very happy. Hope we see higher oil price which in turn lead to even more upside for oil and gas counter as a whole. Congra to all vested in oil n gas stock. Wish I do have a good foresight like yewkim.

[yewkim]

peter,

I am just a small timer.I think Bluekelah and curiousparty are even better. They don't need to see till eye got swollen like me. They just concentrate on one counter is enough to make ton. And best of all, they need not worry, because it is FA solid which they are very confident after due diligent. It is just like buy and sleep on it and wake up to find it has double itself. What a wonderful value investing their due diligent has brought for them. These 2 person here are fantastic.

I vested in CDW aand CES, and sitting on handsome profit because i read and follow them. Thanks to these 2 gems over here.

[greengiraffe]

Oil and gas on U-shape recovery, says AMEC
Jenny Wiggins
521 words
10 Apr 2015
The Australian Financial Review
AFNR
English
Copyright 2015. Fairfax Media Management Pty Limited.

The oil and gas market will remain challenged for several years with a recovery more likely to be U-shaped than V-shaped, the chief financial officer of global engineering group AMECFoster Wheeler has forecast.

"We feel like it's going to be a challenged market in oil and gas for a year or two," Ian McHoul, AMECFoster Wheeler's chief financial officer, told The Australian Financial Review.

"Who knows when it's going to bounce back? It doesn't feel like a V shape [recovery], it feels much more like a U shape," Mr McHoul said.

AMECFoster Wheeler, which has a market capitalisation of £3.5 billion ($6.8 billion), derives most of its revenue from providing engineering services to oil and gas companies, but has been diversifying into "clean energy" industries such as solar, wind and nuclear energy and also provides environmental assessments.

Oil and gas and mining accounted for 54 per cent of the group's £2.6 billion in scope revenues in 2014, but clean energy and environmental/infrastructure services contributed the remainder. Growth in the company's US clean energy business has helped AMECFoster Wheeler withstand the slowdown in the oil and gas industry, Mr McHoul said.

"We're getting a much more resilient performance than some of our peers because of the multi-market approach that we have."

Demand for clean-energy services, which typically have lower profit margins than oil and gas services, was strong, including demand from the nuclear industry in the UK, he said.

"Oil and gas is very much at our heart and always will be, but when times are challenged as they are now, the fact that we've got other markets to fall back on where there are growth opportunities, that provides us with continued momentum and resilience in what is otherwise a difficult market."

AMECFoster Wheeler competes with other global engineering groups such as Australia's WorleyParsons and US companies such as KBR, Fluor, AECOM and Jacobs Engineering.

WorleyParsons has traditionally traded at a higher premium than its global peers but is now trading in line with peers following a sharp fall in its stock price over the past 12 months.

WorleyParsons is now trading on a price/earnings ratio of 10.7 times estimated fiscal 2015 earnings compared to AMECFoster Wheeler at 11.3 times, according to UBS.

AMECFoster Wheeler has been eyeing acquisitions in Australia so it can provide a broader range of maintenance services.

Market downturns created opportunities for mergers and acquisitions, Mr McHoul said.

"It's easier to get a strategic advantage on your competitors in a downturn than it is in an upturn," he said. "If it's a downturn, then the weaker players tend to fall away and the stronger players can gain a strategic march on the competition if they get it right."

The UK engineering group has no plans to sit still after completing AMEC's £2 billion acquisition of fellow engineering group Foster Wheeler in November, Mr McHoul said.


Fairfax Media Management Pty Limited

Document AFNR000020150409eb4a0001p

[Petertan]

Oil and gas on U-shape recovery, says AMEC
Jenny Wiggins
521 words
10 Apr 2015
The Australian Financial Review
AFNR
English
Copyright 2015. Fairfax Media Management Pty Limited.

The oil and gas market will remain challenged for several years with a recovery more likely to be U-shaped than V-shaped, the chief financial officer of global engineering group AMECFoster Wheeler has forecast.

"We feel like it's going to be a challenged market in oil and gas for a year or two," Ian McHoul, AMECFoster Wheeler's chief financial officer, told The Australian Financial Review.

"Who knows when it's going to bounce back? It doesn't feel like a V shape [recovery], it feels much more like a U shape," Mr McHoul said.

AMECFoster Wheeler, which has a market capitalisation of £3.5 billion ($6.8 billion), derives most of its revenue from providing engineering services to oil and gas companies, but has been diversifying into "clean energy" industries such as solar, wind and nuclear energy and also provides environmental assessments.

Oil and gas and mining accounted for 54 per cent of the group's £2.6 billion in scope revenues in 2014, but clean energy and environmental/infrastructure services contributed the remainder. Growth in the company's US clean energy business has helped AMECFoster Wheeler withstand the slowdown in the oil and gas industry, Mr McHoul said.

"We're getting a much more resilient performance than some of our peers because of the multi-market approach that we have."

Demand for clean-energy services, which typically have lower profit margins than oil and gas services, was strong, including demand from the nuclear industry in the UK, he said.

"Oil and gas is very much at our heart and always will be, but when times are challenged as they are now, the fact that we've got other markets to fall back on where there are growth opportunities, that provides us with continued momentum and resilience in what is otherwise a difficult market."

AMECFoster Wheeler competes with other global engineering groups such as Australia's WorleyParsons and US companies such as KBR, Fluor, AECOM and Jacobs Engineering.

WorleyParsons has traditionally traded at a higher premium than its global peers but is now trading in line with peers following a sharp fall in its stock price over the past 12 months.

WorleyParsons is now trading on a price/earnings ratio of 10.7 times estimated fiscal 2015 earnings compared to AMECFoster Wheeler at 11.3 times, according to UBS.

AMECFoster Wheeler has been eyeing acquisitions in Australia so it can provide a broader range of maintenance services.

Market downturns created opportunities for mergers and acquisitions, Mr McHoul said.

"It's easier to get a strategic advantage on your competitors in a downturn than it is in an upturn," he said. "If it's a downturn, then the weaker players tend to fall away and the stronger players can gain a strategic march on the competition if they get it right."

The UK engineering group has no plans to sit still after completing AMEC's £2 billion acquisition of fellow engineering group Foster Wheeler in November, Mr McHoul said.


Fairfax Media Management Pty Limited

Document AFNR000020150409eb4a0001p

More then agree with a long U-shaped recovery. Those major economies are not improving save only for their monetary easing which cause a rising stock market which are happening right now. Look at China, data all mostly bad, but their easy money come flooding HK and their own exchange.

What we can do is just tack along, play along and be alert. When party over , hell will come. It always happen, and stock market can collapse and drop like a stone. May all be careful.

[HitandRun]

Shale Oil Output to Peak in May

Another good reason to "trust" EIA's reporting (including their inventory report).

On one hand, EIA is saying that North Dakota's production will decline 57,000 barrels / day in May 2015. On the other hand, North Dakota is saying that their production has already declined 50,000 barrels / day in Feb 2015 from Dec 2014... see link:ND Production Data.

When will the market realise the problem?

[specuvestor]

And EIA again reiterating US being energy exporter between 2020-2030, not forgetting the impact of renewables with Germany targeting 40-45% renewables by 2025. Oil-guzzler US will be much lower but nonetheless significantly climbing back above 10% past few years.

In a convulated way, higher oil price is actually positive for US national interest and security

http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=20812#

"The timing of the projected end to U.S. net energy imports depends on assumptions about oil prices, energy resources, and economic growth. In the AEO2015 Reference case, imports and exports are balanced starting in 2028. In other cases, such as the High Oil Price and High Oil and Gas Resource cases, the United States becomes a net exporter of energy in 2019. However, in the Low Oil Price case, the United States remains a net energy importer through 2040.

In most of these cases, natural gas is the dominant U.S. energy export, while crude oil and liquid fuels continue to be imported. In all cases, the United States transitions from a net importer of natural gas to a net exporter in 2017. These natural gas exports are mostly sent by pipeline to Mexico or in the form of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to other countries.

The United States continues to be a net importer of crude oil and liquid fuels in most cases, despite increases in exports of petroleum products. Net trade in coal and other energy commodities is relatively unchanged."

On one hand, EIA is saying that North Dakota's production will decline 57,000 barrels / day in May 2015. On the other hand, North Dakota is saying that their production has already declined 50,000 barrels / day in Feb 2015 from Dec 2014... see link:ND Production Data.

When will the market realise the problem?

EIA raw data showing Niobrara, Bakkan and Eagle Ford peak production in March... sometimes just a data timing difference or definition difference for example measure from the well output or into the pipe output. We see these type of difference in say utilisation definition in companies as well.

But I think EIA is incorrectly extrapolating non-sustainable productivity gains in all their regions, defined by production per well.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-14...owest-2009

[Petertan]

Oil is over $58 , irrespective of how marketwatch and CNBC analayst calling the bear tune. It still head higher.

Look like YewKim is better than analyst. Now we are just some 12% to $65. Up some 30% over from 44.03 (52 wk low). Good for those vested in Oil and Gas counter. I believe they will vault higher when $60 is hit. This was suppose to be the price that make shallow water rig profitable.

yewkim is really marvelous, no doubt she is just weeks out of tune, but that in financial market is consider a very good acumen. Now her critics are silence without words.

[greengiraffe]

Oil Trading is a virtual game... real business needs a good period of stability before orders can resurface...

Its always much easier to play a virtual game than to run a real business...

Until stability becomes more evident, we still do not know how many casualties will there be as a result of downturn since last year...

Oil is over $58 , irrespective of how marketwatch and CNBC analayst calling the bear tune. It still head higher.

Look like YewKim is better than analyst. Now we are just some 12% to $65. Up some 30% over from 44.03 (52 wk low). Good for those vested in Oil and Gas counter. I believe they will vault higher when $60 is hit. This was suppose to be the price that make shallow water rig profitable.

yewkim is really marvelous, no doubt she is just weeks out of tune, but that in financial market is consider a very good acumen.