Oil Prices

[Petertan]

Saudi able to increase it price of oil show that demand must be quite good. And with Iran still a long way to exporting it oil, oil can only go up hopefully. And not forgetting Yemen is still in hot spot.

It could also mean that Saudi's have "cornered" more of the market share since last year and now pushing up prices marginally where they can.

Supply is still running at peak in US. There was some news of a small drop in production last week which if sustained may mean oil production in US has peaked.

Think the Saudi main aim is to make prices go much lower to make the US shale producer close shop. This they are not totally successful yet but we shall see in the coming months what is their next move.

Could it be Saudi price is lower than mkt price, so even with the increase of 1$, customer are still happy to pay as it is still lower than official market price, and not because of demand. First, offer low to win customer, than slowly increase a dollar by dollar, business tactic.

[BlueKelah]

Could it be Saudi price is lower than mkt price, so even with the increase of 1$, customer are still happy to pay as it is still lower than official market price, and not because of demand. First, offer low to win customer, than slowly increase a dollar by dollar, business tactic.

According to this article,
Saudi Arabia raises crude prices to Asia for May for second month

["Even though it's a slight increase, overall it's still a discount," said Shunling Yap, a senior oil and gas analyst at BMI Research.

Saudi Aramco raised its May price for its Arab Light grade for Asian customers by $0.30 a barrel compared with April to a discount of $0.60 a barrel to the Oman/Dubai average, it said on Sunday, in line with market expectations."]

[Petertan]

Could it be Saudi price is lower than mkt price, so even with the increase of 1$, customer are still happy to pay as it is still lower than official market price, and not because of demand. First, offer low to win customer, than slowly increase a dollar by dollar, business tactic.

According to this article,
Saudi Arabia raises crude prices to Asia for May for second month

["Even though it's a slight increase, overall it's still a discount," said Shunling Yap, a senior oil and gas analyst at BMI Research.

Saudi Aramco raised its May price for its Arab Light grade for Asian customers by $0.30 a barrel compared with April to a discount of $0.60 a barrel to the Oman/Dubai average, it said on Sunday, in line with market expectations."]

But the selling price is not reported, except how much the increase. Maybe that is trade secret over competitor, but it is definitely lower than market price for sure.

Wait market come to know later, then O n G counter and oil will lau sai again. LOL

[BlueKelah]

Could it be Saudi price is lower than mkt price, so even with the increase of 1$, customer are still happy to pay as it is still lower than official market price, and not because of demand. First, offer low to win customer, than slowly increase a dollar by dollar, business tactic.

According to this article,
Saudi Arabia raises crude prices to Asia for May for second month

["Even though it's a slight increase, overall it's still a discount," said Shunling Yap, a senior oil and gas analyst at BMI Research.

Saudi Aramco raised its May price for its Arab Light grade for Asian customers by $0.30 a barrel compared with April to a discount of $0.60 a barrel to the Oman/Dubai average, it said on Sunday, in line with market expectations."]

But the selling price is not reported, except how much the increase. Maybe that is trade secret over competitor, but it is definitely lower than market price for sure.

Wait market come to know later, then O n G counter and oil will lau sai again. LOL

Selling price as below :

From Wiki :
The Dubai Mercantile Exchange (DME) is a commodity exchange based in Dubai currently listing its flagship futures contract, DME Oman Crude Oil Futures Contract (OQD). Launched in 2007, the DME aims to become the crude oil pricing benchmark for the Asian market with its Oman Crude Oil contract, like the Intercontinental Exchange’s (ICE) North Sea Brent is to Europe and the New York Mercantile Exchange’s (NYMEX) West Texas Intermediate is to North America.

Selling price for DME Oman Crude Oil Futures Contract on Dubai Mercantile Exchange

Currently trading at 56.26 which means saudi should be selling @ 55.66 which is 60cents discount as the article states.

with the US shale production looking to be starting to go down, it is more likely now for oil price to stabilise and even climb up.

However if a wave of defaults does hit the shale sector and cause a downturn to the US economy, then oil may hit historical lows below $40

[yewkim]

Unfortunate to cut when it break below 49.5$, buy back when it broke above 49$, now it is very bullish and forming 54$ triple top, if on any trading day it break above 54$, 2nd half will definitely see 65$/70$. And with it all O n G will soar, in fact most already soar, vallianz, swiber, and a few.

Thank peter for your compliment, just a small timer , I think USD will be bearish 2nd half, commodities ( metal, agriculture and energy) will soar on that count. Let see.

Market will not forgive those who are obstinate. So will we see 40$ again? I think so. Of course , till we see 65$/70$ first. Enjoy while the going is good.

[piggo]

reiterate our forecast for prices to remain low in 2015 with an only gradual recovery into year-end.”

Oil posts best close of 2015 ahead of supply report

NEW YORK (MarketWatch)—The U.S. oil benchmark soared for a second straight session Tuesday to close at its highest level of 2015 a day ahead of weekly data that is expected to show a decline in domestic crude output.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in May CLK5, -1.80% rose $1.84, or 3.5%, to close at $53.98 a barrel—the highest settlement since Dec. 30. Over the past two sessions, May crude has gained nearly 10%

Brent crude for May delivery LCOK5, -1.15% on London’s ICE Futures rose 98 cents, or 1.7%, to $59.10 a barrel, contributing to a 7.6% two-day rise.

Bulls “are really running with it right now,” said Robert Yawger, director of energy futures at Mizuho Securities, in a phone interview.

Investors expect crude-oil data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday to show a second consecutive weekly decline in oil production and for supplies at the Nymex futures delivery hub in Cushing, Okla., to show a drop or only a very small increase, Yawger said.

Analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal forecast total U.S. oil inventories to show a rise of 3.4 million barrels, on average, in the week ended April 3. The EIA report is due at 10:30 a.m. Eastern on Wednesday.

Less influential inventories data from the American Petroleum Institute is expected later Wednesday.

Oil data last week showed U.S. oil production fell by a 36,000 barrels a day in the week ended March 27—a small decline but the first since mid-January.

Meanwhile, technical factors are also positive as Nymex oil futures trade within sight of the 2015 intraday high of $54.24 a barrel set on Feb. 3, and the 100-day moving average at $54.95, Yawger said.

There is still a “sea of crude oil” in the market right now, but for the first time in three months, the market is looking at some positive supply-side issues, Yawger said, at the same time refiners are beginning to come back on line after the traditional maintenance period.

Bears, however, aren’t convinced that the market has rebalanced sufficiently in response to a global supply glut that has seen oil prices fall by more than half from their mid-2014 peak.

Goldman Sachs analysts, in a note, said a declining U.S. oil rig count, while shrinking faster than expected, likely wasn’t sufficient to balance the market in 2016. They said prices need to “stay low for longer” to achieve a sustainable slowdown in U.S. production growth.

“We therefore reiterate our forecast for prices to remain low in 2015 with an only gradual recovery into year-end.” they said, forecasting West Texas Intermediate crude to recover to shale’s marginal cost of $65 a barrel in 2016.

Nymex reformulated gasoline blendstock for May RBK5, -1.69% —the benchmark gasoline contract—rose 1.84 cents, or 1%, to $1.8609 a gallon. May natural gas futures NGK15, -0.78% rose 3 cents, or 1.1%, to $2.68 per million British thermal units.

[specuvestor]

I'll be surprised if this is the consensus

"Investors expect crude-oil data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Wednesday to show a second consecutive weekly decline in oil production and for supplies at the Nymex futures delivery hub in Cushing, Okla., to show a drop or only a very small increase, Yawger said."

[Behappyalways]

Stockpiles rose 10.95 million barrels, or 2.3 percent, to 482.4 million barrels last week, the EIA reported today. Analysts had expected an increase of 3.25 million barrels. The amount of oil the U.S. is cranking out also edged up, to a rate of 9.4 million barrels a day.


Oil Is Diving After the Biggest Inventory Build in 14 Years
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2...n-14-years

[specuvestor]

Hmmm I'm surprised at the jump in inventory since the decline from 10m inventory growth in early March. Main culprit is 1m bpd jump in import which I don't know why.
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_stoc_wstk_dcu_nus_w.htm

Production is lower than 2nd and 3rd week of March. Not yet peak or is it plateauing?
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sndw_dcus_nus_w.htm

[cfa]

How do people know the figures are bona fide ? Who actually audit the quantum ?