Oil Prices

[HitandRun]

Are oil producers running out of closet space?

AFAIK, oil producers do not keep any significant inventory of their crude. If anyone is running out of space, it must be the oil traders and not oil producers.

And if analyst's conclusions are correct, how do you account for the fact that US is still importing >7 million barrels of crude every day.....

[yewkim]

If 49.5 below for 2 to 3 sessions then bear will take over, But yesterday was one seesion, it must be consecutive 2 to 3 sessions , no break in between to invalidate this bull trend. Let see tonight, There was rumour that OPEC is holding a meeting. But that is not how market react.

I once hold 100 share of SCO, and buy up as oil drop from 80$, till I hold some 600 shares. Even in huge profit, you too would panic as your position get bigger. Thus small is good. Loss small too.

Currently , I am still vested at UCO , only a small 1000shrs. bought at 6.48, a small position and profit only for now. I think pay back time for me. We can never win at every trade. No one can. But I am not going to give in just yet, till market stop me out.

Thanks specuvester for sharing, sorry if I appear rude.

So its been two sessions, downward direction now? Bears taking over?

Unfortunately me only have elephant gun, but that should take care of Bulls and Bears..

Haha F.A. people crack me up...

Bull n Bear are doing a tug of war. But so long 49.5 is not taken in consecutive 2 to 3 sessions, bull still remain.

I bought UCO at 6.48, today it is trading at 8.46, I holding only 1000shr, that is 30% gain, I have lot more buffer to lay back on, so no worry for me. I will give more room for trailing stop, and I don't think market can take back the profit from me.

I don't have elephant gun. Can I borrow yours, because I think 65$/70$ is still on.

I intend to load on more for every 10% up in oil price traded, just as I did to SCO. Care to join me?

[yewkim]

Yewkim is a borderline case. So far no chart was presented, and no technical terms was referred.

That is the reason behind for inaction till to-date

Regards
Moderator CF

Thank you for your generosity as usual, Cityfarmer

Since you said that is borderline, that means I am not offside. Thanks to your linesman.

Borderline means that they are right too. When in doubt, always give the benefit to the doubt. You are doing fine in this. Thanks again.

[Behappyalways]

Oil Sails From Russia to Asia Faster on Smaller Ships
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2...ller-ships

[HitandRun]

HAR Oil Patch Update

Special news flash for Behappyalways...

Rising US Oil Supplies

[specuvestor]

^^ The anecdotal evidence is not in the numbers... the evidence is when the real world tankers are being filled up. As long as the strike keeps up the inventory is going to rise as US production is only peaking soon

[yewkim]

The longer oil is at 49/50, the steeper will be the rise later. For the next few sessions, if I am not wrong, it will move toward 55$. It may take times to go to 65$/70$, but we will be there, chances is great.

I think China rate cut do influence oil too.

[specuvestor]

My stance remains that shale output will peak around March but US inventory is obviously a result of the strike, as per posted above

(Bloomberg) -- The global crude-oil market will return to balance in the second half of this year as demand growth picks up and high-cost producers trim output amid lower prices, OPEC Secretary-General Abdalla El-Badri said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2...-day-in-1h

Bloomberg - Hedge Funds Are Losing Faith in Oil Rally While Inventory Swells http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2...lds-energy

[yewkim]

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/energy-c...-surprises

no changes to 65$/70$ target , still see a low of 40$ and below . JMO,

[specuvestor]

Let's see if Eahle Ford and Bakken can go down 2 months in a row to form a trend... the plateau/ peak/ inflexion seems coming

By Dan Murtaugh
(Bloomberg) -- The biggest slowdown in oil drilling on
record is showing signs of reining in the U.S. shale boom.
U.S. shale oil output is expected to post the slowest
growth in more than four years in April, the Energy Information
Administration said today. That follows a 41 percent plunge
since December in the number of drilling rigs seeking oil.
A slowdown in U.S. output would come at the same time that
refineries are expected to return from seasonal maintenance and
bring relief to an oil market that has seen prices decline more
than 50 percent since June. Companies had 444.4 million barrels
of oil in storage in the U.S. as of Feb. 27, the most in weekly
records dating back to 1982.
“You have refineries coming back out of maintenance, and
production getting cut back,” said Carl Larry, head of oil and
gas for Frost & Sullivan LP in Houston. “Everything could come
together where, all of a sudden, everyone thought there was
plenty of supply and there’s not.”
Oil production from six major U.S. shale plays will be 5.6
million barrels a day in April, an increase of 298 over March,.
according to the EIA’s estimate. It’s the smallest projected
increase since February 2011.

Permian Rising

Output from the Eagle Ford in Texas, the second-largest oil
field in the U.S., is expected to drop by 10,000 barrels a day.
Production in the Bakken region in North Dakota is expected to
decline by 8,000. It’s the first month both regions are forecast
to have shrinking production since January 2009.
Production in the Permian Basin in West Texas and New
Mexico, the largest U.S. oil field, will rise by 21,000 barrels
a day to 1.98 million. Refineries processed 15.1 million barrels of crude a day
the week of Feb. 27. Last year, crude demand rose from 15
million barrels a day in the middle of March to 16.6 million in
July. Refineries typically shut units for planned maintenance in
the late winter and early spring to be able to run at full
capacity during the summer driving season.
The EIA’s oil-production estimates are based on the number
of drilling rigs in different plays and calculations of how
productive each piece of equipment is. The number of rigs
drilling for oil fell to 922 on Friday, according to oilfield
service company Baker Hughes Inc. Oil rigs in the U.S. peaked in
October at 1,609.