Oil Prices

[CityFarmer]

A similar view as yewkim's. It means more export from US, and will drive the oil price lower with more supply? Oil price movement remains too complex for me to forecast, and will continue to stay as an observer...

US can be next Saudi Arabia for oil: Former Treasury Secretary

BOSTON — As the Federal Reserve winds down its economic stimulus, former United States Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers says the country’s next economic booster could be exporting its fossil fuels around the globe, a move that could make America the next Saudi Arabia.

“The US has the chance to be to the energy economy of the next decade what Saudi Arabia has been for the last two to three decades,” Mr Summers said on Saturday. “The effect of allowing oil exports ... would reduce rather than increase American gasoline prices.”

Mr Summers, known for his outspoken views about what he describes as a disappointing US economic recovery, was speaking at the annual American Economics Association conference.
...
http://www.todayonline.com/business/us-c...-secretary

[lilvestor]

America will never be the next Saudi Arabia, the cost of producing a barrel of oil is so much higher in the US. The whole bubble was all due to cheap money and a lot of gullible investors, this "free money" is likely to be cut off soon since the FED is now poised to tighten monetary policy, US oil production will fall off very quickly once these companies run out of money for CAPEX.

This is a price war that have no hope of winning.

[CityFarmer]

America will never be the next Saudi Arabia, the cost of producing a barrel of oil is so much higher in the US. The whole bubble was all due to cheap money and a lot of gullible investors, this "free money" is likely to be cut off soon since the FED is now poised to tighten monetary policy, US oil production will fall off very quickly once these companies run out of money for CAPEX.

This is a price war that have no hope of winning.

That is the main stream view, base on my observation. Let's see who's right...

[CityFarmer]

It is a waiting game, and lot of patience required...

Revamped U.S. oil hedges may test OPEC's patience

NEW YORK - As a war of nerves between U.S. shale producers and Gulf powerhouses intensifies, OPEC's biggest members are counting down the months until their upstart rivals lose the one thing shielding them from crashing oil prices - hedges.

They may need much more patience than they reckon, however, because those hedges are a moving target. Rather than wait for their price insurance to run out, many companies are racing to revamp their policies, cashing in well-placed hedges to increase the number of future barrels hedged, according to industry consultants, bankers and analysts familiar with the deals.

OPEC officials hope that once U.S. oil companies get fully exposed to the impact of an over 50 percent slide in crude prices since last June, they will have to drill fewer new wells, causing U.S. production growth to stall and putting a floor under oil prices now testing $50 a barrel.

"There are companies which are hedged until the beginning of the year or until the end of the year, so we need to wait at least until the first quarter to see what is going to happen," United Arab Emirates Energy Minister Suhail Bin Mohammed al-Mazroui told Reuters and one other news agency last month.

Yet that hope is based largely on quarterly company reports from several months ago, when drillers last made their hedging portfolios public. In the meantime, with the price rout showing no sign of reversing, at least some firms have put on new hedges that will help prevent their revenues from falling further - and allow them to drill far longer this year than earlier expected.

"OPEC should not expect to see any impact on U.S. shale growth in the first half of the year and the impact in the second half is being attenuated significantly by producer hedging," says Ed Morse, global head of commodities research at Citigroup, one of the biggest U.S. banks involved hedging.
...
http://www.todayonline.com/business/reva...s-patience

[yewkim]

OPEC dominance of oil is over, with US shale oil producer, US no longer rely on ME for oil, unlike previously, they need to fight and dies for oil. So oil is gg to be base on competitiveness, rather than domination by OPEC. So it got a long way for oil price to go even lower,


Whichever outcome finally puts a floor under prices, we can be confident that the process will take a long time to unfold. It is inconceivable that just a few months of falling prices will be enough time for the Saudis to either break the Iranian-Russian axis or reverse the growth of shale oil production in the United States. It is equally inconceivable that the oil market could quickly transition from OPEC domination to a normal competitive one. The many bullish oil investors who still expect prices to rebound quickly to their pre-slump trading range are likely to be disappointed. The best that oil bulls can hope for is that a new, and substantially lower, trading range may be established as the multi-year battles over Middle East dominance and oil-market share play out.


So, you think 50$ is the bottom like many player and analyst see it. But i think 50$ would be the ceiling for a long time to come. What this means is oil will trade 50$(max) and lower to the worse of 20/25$. A lot of ppl think this is out of this world, but market is always as usual stretch to the extreme pessimism.


I think and suggest one should not long oil and gas counter now, they got lot more down side to go. I am long the SCO, yesterday open position at ave 74. Last round has make handsome profit. I will load more at every 7/8% down on oil px, till it reverse at trailing stop to stop out all my position. And i suggest that those who long the oil n gas counter should has some form of hedging by putting up position on these instrument like SCO. Wish all good luck. And I am looking to short Kepcorp and Ezion and a few oil n gas counter on SGX if on any day oil come down 3/5$. This will create panic.


I believe we see oil below 50$ by 1st week of 2015. We see. Tonite, SCO should open at 80$ and above base on estimation of current oil price.

Look like my tg for oil to go below 50$ by 1st week of 2015 is coming soon. Thanks to my lucky star. I shorted Kepcorp and 2 OnG today. Wish all good luck.


Alright, now u sell curry puff, and your competitor selling too, should you sell less, and close shop early so people can buy from your competitor. Or would you listen to yr competitor who ask you to close yr shop earlier, so he can sell more.LOL



Ok, now because there a lot of currr puff, I will need to do trick to sell ,because my family need revenue to eat and go to school. so what should i do? I will try to undercut my competitior, sell cheaper, or lelong 3 for 1$, or do a buy one get one free, no choice,,,too many puff in the market..Isn' t that what our shopping mall do that too. So what u say of country.??



So on that note, i think current uptrend in oil and gas stock is nothing but dead cat bounce. Do not believe me because that is my opinion and i can be wrong too. What one can do is to be alert and use trailing stop for your profit if any.Or just stay out. If oil fall 3/5$ within the day, go short should not be wrong.


Is that so simple? Actually, it is. It is us that make it look difficult. Everything got risk, but the real risk is ourself. Risk is dead, human is alive, like they say it. You mange the risk, and not let the risk do harm to you. Good luck.

[yewkim]

Isn' t it the same as one competitor tell the other, that i need to close my shop early so he can sell more curry puff because he said he got a family to feed and need to sell, But I cannot do what he told me to, because I got a wife and 10 children and also because i m getting married again next year( Muslim allow to). So i need to sell even more even if curry puff is 20c. LOL

so on that note too, everyone will do the same till the weak one all go under, then finally we are left with Old chang kee and a few only, the strong one alive.. then curry puff px will rise. Now less puff on the market.

So now curry puff very cheap, will you buy? I cannot because economy no good, no money to buy, I will wait for the shop to sell cheaper. This will add on to the trouble already in the market.

Isn' t that individual to individual the same as country to country?

[sgd]

Curry puff can no need to eat but oil in our modern world you cannot don't use, everything even our live all depend on using oil it is the most heavily in demand commodity on the planet even roads we use today are paved with bitumen, our food grown from using petroleum fertilizers so your curry puff somewhere along the manufacturing process is also heavily dripping in oil. Try to live without oil I think many are not going to make it.

So because there's so much demand in this commodity theres going to be a lot of people trying get a share of it so just waiting for herd to thin out could be a long waiting game.

but for oil prices to go up or down by a lot is not really depend on number of players it is determine largely by crisis especially when that also happen in oil producing country or region and most times we see it's in the middle east and its relatively quiet there lately but example If venezuela oil producing country has a civil war tomorrow and the market perceive a disruption in supply oil could suddenly spike back to $100.

[Temperament]

Curry puff can no need to eat but oil in our modern world you cannot don't use, everything even our live all depend on using oil it is the most heavily in demand commodity on the planet even roads we use today are paved with bitumen, our food grown from using petroleum fertilizers so your curry puff somewhere along the manufacturing process is also heavily dripping in oil. Try to live without oil I think many are not going to make it.

So because there's so much demand in this commodity theres going to be a lot of people trying get a share of it so just waiting for herd to thin out could be a long waiting game.

but for oil prices to go up or down by a lot is not really depend on number of players it is determine largely by crisis especially when that also happen in oil producing country or region and most times we see it's in the middle east and its relatively quiet there lately but example If venezuela oil producing country has a civil war tomorrow and the market perceive a disruption in supply oil could suddenly spike back to $100.

Yes agree. Nobody can predict or know when is the "Black Swan" coming. Bear or Bull is no match for the "Black Swan". How come?

[CityFarmer]

I read one interview of a movie stuntman. The main takeaway for me, was the risks involved, are likely lower than a reckless driver on road. The reasons been the stuntman take no chance. He "hedges" almost all risks with safety measures, and always be prepared for the worst. He has done so, even for a simple and perceived safe stunt.

I don't brush-off the merit of long-short style of investing, as long as the risks are properly hedged, rather than rely purely on an individual "insight" or worst, the lucky star.

A friendly reminder, the risk of loss on a short is theoretically infinite.

I have no insight on the oil price trend, thus no comment on all views either down, or up.

[Temperament]

Yes! No matter how risky it is (which it actually is very risky), it's not as risky as you are not prepared and therefore don't know what you are doing.
Of course even if you know what you are doing you still want to cover yourself with insurance like hedging or asset allocations (even better). If not i will bang all my money in just one stock or one thing.

Is there Anyone who dares to do it? But first go and ask Stanley Ho (if he still living). He can tell you what his father & friends had done and why he was so poor as a kid then. i am sure there are many more of such cases. There is no sure thing in life or thing that remains the same or last forever. So the "Black Swan" comes into the picture.