Oil Prices

[yewkim]

Wow, bernasib baik malam ini.. sold all SCO, take half at 77, then see it falling take all at 75.. if not now too late, looking to get back soon. I think it should be able to get back above 60$ soon. But after a fall so steep, it may take a while. Hope all are doing well too. If you got short position, do please be alert. I guess oil n gas counters play could start soon. Today, I bought into 2 oil counters. I do have strict stop loss enshrine. But this does not means oil have found a bottom. Oil is just having a bounce here. Good luck to all.

Finally, oil is building up strength to cross 60$ above. I bought into UCO n DIG one day after i book profit for SCO, join me? It is still early. And back in SGX, I bought vallianz and Pacific R to ride oil back up above 60$. Wish me luck.

[CityFarmer]

Major players are cutting their capex...

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Chevron cancels Canadian Arctic drilling as oil prices slide

CALGARY, Alberta - Chevron Corp is putting a plan to drill for oil in the Beaufort Sea in Canada's Arctic on hold indefinitely because of what it called "economic uncertainty in the industry" as oil prices fall.
...
http://www.todayonline.com/business/chev...ices-slide

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Petronas cuts capex
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Shamsul lays out the bare truth on what the falling oil prices would mean for Petronas, the oil and gas (O&G) services industry and the federal government’s coffers:

> Capital expenditure (capex) on the O&G industry will be cut by between 15% and 20%;

> Petronas’ contribution to Government coffers in the form of dividends, taxes and oil royalty for next year will dive by 37% to RM43bil, assuming the Brent crude settles at US$75 per barrel;

> Petronas will not proceed with contracts to award new marginal oil fields unless oil settles at levels above US$80 per barrel;

> Projects in Pengerang that have yet to receive the final investment decision (FID) will be affected by the cut-backs. Projects worth US$27bil that have received FID will not be affected, but Petronas does not have 100% equity in all the projects approved.

The capex crunch is expected to send chills down the spine of the already fragile O&G sector, with the stock prices of listed players already haemorrhaging in light of the free-fall of oil prices.
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http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Busin...?style=biz

[specuvestor]

My hunch is OPEC will try to mark oil near low for year end P1 evaluation.

Next year is anyone's guess when Russia will buck from Ukraine. And that will end my 'forecast" about oil price

[Boon]

Oil prices not going up soon: IEA director

Tom DiChristopher

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102281322

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Oil Price Forecast: 2015-2016

Bill Conerly Contributor

12/18/2014

http://www.forbes.com/sites/billconerly/...2015-2016/

[CityFarmer]

Mark Mobius view on oil price. His view is probably the most optimistic so far...

When Do Oil Prices Rebound? Mark Mobius Sees $90 By The End Of 2015

Mark Mobius believes that by as early as next year the price of oil could rebound to $90 per barrel.

The reason is simple, US shale producers are going to curtail drilling and that new source of oil is going to stop growing andn potentially decline.

For now Mobius sees the big consuming nations like China and India benefitting and Russia and the Middle East hurting.
http://www.gurufocus.com/news/300244/whe...nd-of-2015

[orangetea]

Correct me if this is a flawed view...

Regarding the oil cartels in Singapore Petrol stations, the only competition will come as more private owners own the stations...

Whereby in the US, owners can adjust the price and create price wars to attract customers. Probably as the US is a large area, the oil conglomerates pass the running cost to owners instead of operating their own.

But i tend to think that pump stations here are already run by individuals as business...
If so, why are they not creating this kind of price war...

Is it because there is agreement with their source (Shell, Chervon, Exxon Mobil and SPC) to abide by the rules and only change pump price only when officially instructed to do so? If this is true, then the competition watch dog in SG is not doing their job...

Then an app like grab taxi would allow competitive fuel prices....

I would like to see diesel at S$0.60 again in my recollection of 2004 prices here

[specuvestor]

^^ I think it has something to do with Singapore being a refinery center but I can't remember the linkage

[chongsk]

^^ I think it has something to do with Singapore being a refinery center but I can't remember the linkage

Our previous finance minister Richard Hu was the Chairman or MD of Shell Singapore.

[egghead]

If I'm not wrong, the oil companies have taken back all retail stations in Singapore. Compared to individual-run stations years ago, don't you find many improvements via tie-up (e.g. ATM, C-store, SingPost, etc) in recent years? As for pricing, I think it has to do with Singapore being a very small place so any change in price in one company will be matched quickly by the others. In bigger countries, there may be certain hard to reach locations and those stations will probably charge more for their gas due to less competition and increased distribution costs?

As for diesel price, please remember that diesel sold in Singapore has moved to Euro V in 2013. You expect to use a cleaner product at the same price? It costs money to remove sulphur you know...

[CityFarmer]

No price war doesn't necessary mean price-fixing. There is no good reason for CCS to ignore the significant target, and focus on others. CCS is pretty aggressive lately.

http://www.ccs.gov.sg/content/ccs/en.html