Revisiting Housing Supply

[Musicwhiz]

A nice comprehensive article written on housing supply! Enjoy!

[flinger]

Thanks MW. Good to read and understand. So MBT chant that there are enough affordable units for all seems to be refuted by this article.

Another point is that resale flat prices would probably get back to normal in 2013 - 20 14 when most of the new BTO's get released in the market and the demand starts to go down.

What do others think?

[mrEngineer]

Great article shared MW. At least there is a probability of local property crash in 2013 and 2014. So thinking ahead of the curve, it is still a good idea to get BTOs now or purchase resale or private in 2014?

[Musicwhiz]

Great article shared MW. At least there is a probability of local property crash in 2013 and 2014. So thinking ahead of the curve, it is still a good idea to get BTOs now or purchase resale or private in 2014?

Haha, well if this article is really spot on, then I'd consider selling my 4-room flat now and renting a place until 2013-2014! Then I can go shopping around on the cheap.....

If not, I may just build up cash to wait for a crash to scoop up FH mass market private property by 2014.

[mrEngineer]

Haha, well if this article is really spot on, then I'd consider selling my 4-room flat now and renting a place until 2013-2014! Then I can go shopping around on the cheap.....

If not, I may just build up cash to wait for a crash to scoop up FH mass market private property by 2014.

Actually, I had that feeling that oversupply will kill property prices in 2013-2014 but didnt had the figures to back it up. Koh san has been advocating this since Afralug days as well. Lol.

Another point I am thinking is even if there is oversupply of HDB in 2013 or 2014 (as the figures inside shows more than 50% supply from HDB), those whom purchase their BTOs or DBSS or ECs will not be able to sell until 5 years later. So would there be a real oversupply?

Anyway, this article backs up your point mentioned in the other thread about population growth and property prices.

Cheers

[yeokiwi]

Haha, well if this article is really spot on, then I'd consider selling my 4-room flat now and renting a place until 2013-2014! Then I can go shopping around on the cheap.....

If not, I may just build up cash to wait for a crash to scoop up FH mass market private property by 2014.

Actually, I had that feeling that oversupply will kill property prices in 2013-2014 but didnt had the figures to back it up. Koh san has been advocating this since Afralug days as well. Lol.

Another point I am thinking is even if there is oversupply of HDB in 2013 or 2014 (as the figures inside shows more than 50% supply from HDB), those whom purchase their BTOs or DBSS or ECs will not be able to sell until 5 years later. So would there be a real oversupply?

Anyway, this article backs up your point mentioned in the other thread about population growth and property prices.

Cheers

My view is that a bad economic downturn is required to bring down the property market.
Most people, as long as they have a job and can service the loan, they will not sell their property cheaply.
A downturn will also result in an exodus of the foreign professionals that will reduce the accommodation needs.

Other than that, our dear gov has many tricks up their sleeves- cancel BTOs, cancel land sale, demolish flats, hold on to the empty flats for years, import foreigners...
Besides that, most of the private property developers are quite well capitalized currently.

[Musicwhiz]

Thanks yeokiwi and MrEngineer for your views.

It might take a really big crisis to crash prices; and even then it's probably something no one can reasonably forsee.

Whatever the case, as long as no one believes prices are going to fall, this (to me) signals that things are getting bubbly.

[flinger]

This article gives more more reasons as to why I should stick to my BTO application. The resale flats are going at ridiculous prices.

I saw a 30+ year old flat with total major renovation needed for the entire house and at a very low floor going for 340,000 without any legal fees and all other extras.

The buyer would have pay for all the fees and the renovation to the house , eventually it would costs him like 400,000 plus for the house.

I think the buyer is paying way too much for the house.

[brattzz]

IMPORT FTs is the best policy to keep the housing prices up...

Just import 100,000 FTs...

watever Marbo Tan say, just read it the opposite way, sure correct one...

[newyorkcityboy]

Assuming other factors are constant and looking only at supply picture: prices are likely to remain resilient in the short term (2011 - 2012).
Prices could peak in 2013 because that's when the large supply floods the market. Prices could trend down thereafter in 2013/2014.

Wildcards which determine whether it is a sharp or slow price decline, as others have pointed out, are economic situation (inflation and interest rate situation), population growth etc, government intervention (taxes).

Views?