Accordia Golf Trusts

[Squirrel]

Its a pretty long but really informative piece of research report. Given it's company sponsored report, would that give more credence to the part mentioning plans of purchasing 25 golf courses at 5 golf courses per year? That should bump up dividends if it really happens.

Wouldn't the contrary be true instead? ie. How much credence is there in a "sponsored report"? Granted that this seems to be directly paid, rather then indirectly (I use your investment banking services, you give me favorable reports through your brokerage), and so actually making it not much different from majority of other "independent" brokerage reports.

P.S. I think it would be fine to treat the report as a "factsheet" and try to ignore all others that try to do projections, just my personal opinion anyways.

I am not trying to say that the report is unbiased, the credence is referring to the piece of information regarding acquisition of golf courses. What I am trying to drive at is that, since this is a sponsored report, does that mean that the analyst has unfettered access to management and thus has better insight into their plans. Is this expansion plans information that other analysts can't get? 

That aside, this report does work as an excellent fact sheet. Personally I find the report very factual and I don't get the feeling that it's trying to "sell" the company. It presents both sides of the company, good and bad.

[Mushy]

I glanced through the report over an hour or so. I don't see the report trying to do any projections beyond current year or shout buy or sell like most local brokerage reports. I do not get a sense of whether the writer is trying to say it is good or bad investment. It is simply a 50 plus page consolidation of facts and figures from itself and other sources. I found additional useful info like the history of the company and the golfing industry in Japan. Probably an hour of reading this report in the past would have saved me about 10 hours of self googling. I think it is the type of report that most valuebuddies would appreciate.
Thanks for sharing squirrel.

[Squirrel]

Pretty good business report for the past quarter

http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/AGT_Mont...eID=473727

Seeing a +4.8% increase in visitor numbers year on year for 2Q. Assuming that per visitor revenue stays consistent as first quarter, we should be seeing a meaningful increase in DPU for the 1H distribution.

[cyclone]

Update on Portfolio Following Earthquake in Osaka, Japan

Accordia Golf Trust provided an update on the situation of its golf courses in Osaka Area, Japan.

Our golf courses in greater Osaka area have suffered minimal damage resulting from the earthquake on 18 June 2018 which caused widespread disruption in Osaka. Nevertheless, there is no material damage to our assets or casualty reported at the golf courses in greater Osaka area as well as other areas in Japan. Currently it is business as usual at our golf courses.

Mr. Yoshihiko Machida, Chief Executive Officer and Executive Director of the Trustee-Manager, said, "On behalf of the Board of Directors and Management of AGT, I would like to express our sincere condolence to the families of the victims affected by the earthquakes."

[cyclone]

Update on Portfolio Following Heavy Rainfall in Western Japan

Several days of torrential rainfall since 28 June 2018 had caused flash flooding and landslides in western Japan. Accordia Golf Trust’s three golf courses – Hongo Country Club, Takehara Country Club and Fukuoka Pheasant Country Club – are currently closed due to public road closures against possible landslides and repair works. There is no casualty reported at the golf courses.

Although several Accordia Golf Trust’s golf courses also suffered damage, there was no material impact.

Mr. Yoshihiko Machida, Chief Executive Officer and Executive Director of the trustee-manager, said,
"On behalf of the board of directors and management of AGT, I would like to express our sincere condolences to the families of the victims."

Accordia Golf Trust today closed at S$0.600 (+0.005).

[Mushy]

Accordia Golf (sponsor + trust) is the 2nd largest golf operator/owner in Japan with 134 courses.
Orix is the 3rd largest with 39.
(Ref AGT's financial results 2q2018/19)

Recently Orix become very closely related to AGT. What is MBK planning to do, and how it might impact AGT unit holders?
Below are some recent observations.
Note that I am vested in AGT.

- Orix and Aozora together were involved with the recent refinancing of AGT debts approx 45B yen. (Ref AGT announcement 24 July 2018)
- MBK owns Accordia golf which owns 28.85% of AGT. In Nov 2018, Orix announced they will transfer their golf business to MBK golf business and also acquire 5% equity interest in MBK golf business. (Ref https://www.orix.co.jp/grp/en/news/2018/...ORIXE.html)

Pretty sure there will be more actions coming soon within next 2 years and with 2020 Tokyo olympics golf in mind which can act as an external booster.
What are the possibilities?
- Orix (and remaining sponsor's courses) is sold into AGT. Recent difficulties faced by AGT in financing acquisitions has been boosted by the 5 year refinancing of their existing debts.
- MBK privatise AGT at price near to NAV. Does not seem too difficult given current unit price has a huge discount. They then tidy up the package and sell/list it few years later.

[Mushy]

Recent analyst report by KGI securities which also mentioned the recent Orix transfer as well as Hibiki becoming 2nd largest unitholder.

Link to KGI report

Just a trivial thing. I thought AGT being a business trust means instead of shares and dividends, the correct terms should be units and distribution? We can see this in AGT news releases. So KGI technically is using the wrong terms. Am I correct?

[wonghw12]

Interesting finding. What's the difference in definition between shares/dividends and units/distribution?

[specuvestor]

Shares imply ownership. Technically one don't own the trust but a beneficiary, hence per unit of distribution. Singapore trust is not an entity but held under trustee, who supposedly acts on behalf of the beneficiaries.

[cyclone]

Update on Portfolio Following Typhoon Hagibis (No.19) in Eastern Japan

Most golf courses are operating as usual and no significant physical damages and casualties have been reported at this time except for the following. 

Three golf courses – Northern Country Club Nishikigahara Golf Course in Saitama, Chichibu Kokusai Country Club in Saitama, and Odawara Golf Club Matsuda Course in Kanagawa – are currently closed for inspection and repair and hopefully will be ready to open in one to two weeks.

More details in https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/AGT_Updat...eID=581964