Accordia Golf Trusts

[gzbkel]

Besides the two major earthquakes in Kumamoto on 14th and 16th, there have been many aftershocks of level 5 and above. So far, 41 people died, 1000+ injured, and 90,000 evacuated in Kumamoto.
Some sections of the highways are closed due to landslides. Services on various train lines in Kyuushu have been suspended, while some lines are operating with less frequency than usual.

One of Accordia Golf Trust's golf course is located in Kumamoto prefecture, while another 8 are located in neighboring areas (Nagasaki, Fukuoka, Oita). That is 9 out of 89 in the portfolio. Waiting for more news from management on the scale of the impact.

[CY09]

1. AGT has insurance coverage for replacement cost in excess of 15%. Means they are liable for 15% of all replacement cost.

2. The 8 courses form about between 5-9% of revenue and given the lack of transportation and accessibility, revenue will definitely be affected

3. As provisions, it is likely to be written down on Q2. So expect a Q2 with lower revenue and probably lower profits.

[tanjm]

1. AGT has insurance coverage for replacement cost in excess of 15%. Means they are liable for 15% of all replacement cost.

2. The 8 courses form about between 5-9% of revenue and given the lack of transportation and accessibility, revenue will definitely be affected

3. As provisions, it is likely to be written down on Q2. So expect a Q2 with lower revenue and probably lower profits.

Despite the news worthiness of this event, it is not likely to be of major impact to AGT unless it has direct and significant damage to its facilities (e.g. a landslide occur on the golfing property itself). Otherwise the impact is likely to be temporary (e.g. revenue drop for one or two Q). In Mar 2011, when Saizen was hit similarly, its physical damages were minimal despite having properties in the general area.

[tanjm]

Actually, I see they got an announcement posted.

http://accordiagolftrust.listedcompany.c...T3EJ.1.pdf

[Gaudente]

dividend 4.31 cents , not bad at current disastrous price . Now I  just wait for how they will manage to declare a 2 cents only div for the summer season like they did past year... 

[GreedandFear]

According to the Financial Times, MBK ( a Korean leveraged buy-out fund) has approached Accordia Golf Company (the parent company of Accordia Golf Trust) for a potential take-over. Accordia Golf Company owns 25% of Accordia Golf Trust and also manages it. One of the curious things about Accordia Golf Trust is that there have been no further asset injections since its listing despite the fact that this had been widely touted by both analysts and Accordia Golf Trust and that analysts have pointed out that Accordia Golf Trust has sufficient debt headrom for further golf courses to be purchased without having to issue more shares. Not sure if a potential change in ownership of Accordia Golf Company will change any of this.

[mulyc]

According to the Financial Times, MBK ( a Korean leveraged buy-out fund) has approached Accordia Golf Company (the parent company of Accordia Golf Trust) for a potential take-over. Accordia Golf Company owns 25% of Accordia Golf Trust and also manages it. One of the curious things about Accordia Golf Trust is that there have been no further asset injections since its listing despite the fact that this had been widely touted by both analysts and Accordia Golf Trust and that analysts have pointed out that Accordia Golf Trust has sufficient debt headrom for further golf courses to be purchased without having to issue more shares. Not sure if a potential change in ownership of Accordia Golf Company will change any of this.

Perhaps that is why it was been moving up last week?

[Gaudente]

dividend 4.31 cents , not bad at current disastrous price . Now I  just wait for how they will manage to declare a 2 cents only div for the summer season like they did past year... 

and here we are ... http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/AGT_BCD%...eID=428965  2.45 cents , once again these guys managed to ruin my day 

[GreedandFear]

dividend 4.31 cents , not bad at current disastrous price . Now I  just wait for how they will manage to declare a 2 cents only div for the summer season like they did past year... 

and here we are ... http://infopub.sgx.com/FileOpen/AGT_BCD%...eID=428965  2.45 cents , once again these guys managed to ruin my day 

It is a seasonal business. You get 2.45 cents for the first half and then likely 4 cents for the second half. That still adds up to a 10% yield. As the company has explained in the presentation, it receives the bulk of their membership fees in Q4 and hence the cash available for distribution will be higher in the 2H than the 1H although accounting profits may be higher in 1H. See page 37 of the presentation. IMO the key variables here are weather, high fixed costs and FX. If you look at the historical visitor numbers, they tends to average out to about the same every year, so the biz is quite stable. However, fixed costs are high so a relatively small drop in visitors can result in a much bigger drop in P&L. The FX is the major unknown but I take some comfort in the fact that the shares are  trading at a discount to NAV (but this is accounting NAV, not a real NAV based upon third party appraisals) and that the FX can go against a SGD based investor by quite a bit and still provide decent yield in in the mean time given that the starting point is a 10% yield. Not saying that things cannot go wrong but the biz does look quite stable....with some potential upside if more golf courses are injected or if more toutrists start playing golf....

[gzbkel]

Golf players are declining in numbers in Japan.
I can't find much mention about this in English websites, but if you search google for the Japanese terms "ゴルフ離れ" (or "gorufu banare") you will find it mentioned in multiple Japanese sources.

Here is one of the few English website I found about this trend:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2...ishing-rod