High-end rally seen as city centre homes hit peak

[freedom]

I think can attribute the inflation of property price in Singapore to liquidity.

1. from 20 - 30 years ago, the monetary base is enlarged by few times at least.

1991
Jan 83,076.1 62,144.9 14,844.5
Feb 83,599.3 62,436.3 14,978.1
Mar 84,230.3 62,950.5 14,936.7
Apr 84,531.1 63,193.2 14,662.3
May 85,401.7 64,051.5 14,716.2
Jun 86,233.0 65,033.5 14,633.2
Jul 88,237.4 67,091.4 16,015.3
Aug 87,600.2 66,404.7 14,561.1
Sep 88,454.2 67,221.3 14,720.5
Oct 88,669.2 67,129.9 14,966.5
Nov 89,973.7 68,215.4 15,275.9
Dec 92,649.7 69,542.3 16,430.0
1992
Jan 93,189.5 69,795.1 16,795.8
Feb 93,217.7 69,717.5 15,972.5
Mar 95,042.8 71,621.8 16,694.4
Apr 95,586.0 71,946.6 16,322.1
May 96,259.0 72,581.9 16,742.7
Jun 97,053.1 73,074.0 17,033.2
Jul 98,407.6 73,986.8 17,238.8
Aug 98,616.0 74,361.2 17,125.6
Sep 99,136.3 74,675.7 17,905.5
Oct 99,529.3 75,090.8 17,905.0
Nov 99,687.5 75,025.3 17,850.4
Dec 101,482.1 75,728.5 18,515.6
1993
Jan 101,185.2 74,968.6 18,733.0
Feb 101,040.6 74,577.2 18,433.1
Mar 102,064.6 75,738.3 18,769.6
Apr 102,475.8 76,019.3 19,240.5
May 103,719.2 77,011.5 19,226.6
Jun 103,313.0 76,483.0 19,219.3
Jul 103,626.6 76,537.5 19,273.4
Aug 104,667.4 77,499.5 19,564.0
Sep 105,735.9 78,535.5 19,978.3
Oct 108,878.8 81,637.4 25,499.3
Nov 108,537.2 81,075.2 22,057.0
Dec 111,369.4 82,130.3 22,882.2
1994
Jan 110,215.8 81,386.6 22,712.5
Feb 110,729.4 81,175.2 22,069.8
Mar 111,847.0 82,312.6 22,491.1
Apr 112,911.4 83,158.6 21,531.4
May 114,350.5 84,722.2 21,982.3
Jun 115,605.7 85,710.4 22,396.9
Jul 117,278.2 87,150.6 22,073.7
Aug 118,536.9 88,186.5 22,432.0
Sep 120,495.9 89,990.1 23,139.3
Oct 121,067.1 90,326.8 23,451.0
Nov 122,771.6 92,171.4 23,114.4
Dec 125,835.1 93,980.6 23,411.5
1995
Jan 127,045.3 95,228.0 25,164.6
Feb 126,732.0 94,617.5 23,334.1
Mar 126,759.3 94,669.8 23,834.6
Apr 127,798.2 95,750.1 24,375.8
May 129,929.4 97,489.8 26,045.4
Jun 130,988.1 97,999.4 24,683.7
Jul 129,939.3 96,830.7 24,235.0
Aug 131,274.3 97,912.6 24,493.7
Sep 131,915.9 98,480.0 24,657.6
Oct 132,077.9 98,481.7 24,501.3
Nov 134,386.0 100,309.9 24,478.9
Dec 136,736.6 101,967.3 25,349.2
1996
Jan 136,156.6 101,796.7 26,239.6
Feb 137,154.7 102,726.8 26,118.0
Mar 138,734.0 104,719.7 25,927.4
Apr 139,900.0 105,812.4 26,491.3
May 141,107.5 106,882.9 26,111.7
Jun 142,140.9 107,702.8 26,411.8
Jul 143,675.2 108,813.6 26,195.6
Aug 144,012.5 109,112.3 26,072.5
Sep 144,177.1 109,379.0 26,547.7
Oct 143,484.8 108,708.0 26,085.1
Nov 145,755.3 110,921.2 26,505.8
Dec 148,494.7 111,950.8 27,040.0
1997
Jan 150,098.9 113,064.4 28,847.3
Feb 150,820.4 113,662.2 27,918.6
Mar 153,796.6 117,034.9 28,465.9
Apr 155,258.3 118,223.4 27,666.1
May 155,875.1 118,914.1 27,582.4
Jun 156,338.1 119,088.7 28,240.6
Jul 157,372.5 119,912.5 27,992.9
Aug 157,689.0 120,383.2 27,948.8
Sep 157,836.7 120,542.7 28,012.8
Oct 157,842.5 120,879.8 27,718.8
Nov 158,459.9 121,592.3 27,251.2
Dec 160,766.0 123,443.4 27,510.9
1998
Jan 161,368.7 124,397.1 27,763.5
Feb 163,143.4 126,271.7 26,307.3
Mar 164,787.9 128,026.9 26,609.9
Apr 164,361.5 127,177.6 26,416.9
May 165,620.4 128,601.7 25,253.4
Jun 165,513.3 128,747.0 24,913.1
Jul 167,936.3 131,317.7 25,112.8
Aug 168,170.0 131,438.7 25,211.4
Sep 169,505.0 132,561.7 24,920.6
Oct 169,961.0 132,362.5 25,582.2
Nov 170,000.5 157,116.7 25,950.4
Dec 173,581.0 160,783.9 27,239.1
1999
Jan 174,018.1 161,256.5 28,096.2
Feb 174,689.3 162,165.2 28,287.2
Mar 175,955.1 163,583.3 28,988.5
Apr 176,779.0 164,564.3 28,739.4
May 178,503.5 166,777.7 28,919.7
Jun 179,560.0 167,872.8 29,624.7
Jul 180,411.5 168,780.3 29,993.9
Aug 181,448.9 169,799.3 28,439.6
Sep 181,834.6 170,252.3 28,762.6
Oct 181,214.9 169,633.7 28,644.2
Nov 181,400.0 169,825.0 29,834.9
Dec 186,183.7 174,474.4 31,109.1
2000
Jan 186,094.7 174,363.9 31,331.4
Feb 184,783.9 172,999.5 30,355.1
Mar 184,516.5 172,663.3 32,072.0
Apr 181,491.7 169,661.8 30,734.4
May 181,523.3 169,550.8 30,596.5
Jun 183,262.7 171,720.6 33,070.2
Jul 181,582.4 170,032.0 32,428.1
Aug 180,213.2 168,497.1 31,603.2
Sep 178,373.5 166,563.0 31,724.6
Oct 177,699.1 166,084.0 32,370.4
Nov 180,257.7 168,472.9 32,932.9
Dec 182,912.7 170,897.8 33,261.9
2001
Jan 183,865.3 174,436.7 34,902.9
Feb 184,381.3 174,810.6 33,786.3
Mar 186,059.6 176,415.6 34,652.2
Apr 187,223.6 177,541.1 34,230.1
May 186,247.1 176,520.6 33,973.0
Jun 184,724.3 175,063.2 34,200.4
Jul 181,049.6 171,436.2 33,555.4
Aug 181,532.3 171,886.7 33,277.1
Sep 184,494.4 174,918.6 34,271.2
Oct 185,362.4 175,736.9 35,316.7
Nov 190,626.8 181,117.1 35,438.2
Dec 190,316.9 180,908.5 36,082.9
2002
Jan 189,090.7 179,503.3 35,798.1
Feb 189,173.0 179,702.9 36,473.1
Mar 191,964.2 182,595.4 36,269.4
Apr 189,979.2 180,744.1 34,710.1
May 188,956.0 179,866.8 34,330.8
Jun 188,514.8 179,476.4 34,882.6
Jul 187,694.0 178,786.9 34,502.4
Aug 185,674.6 176,905.7 33,988.7
Sep 185,326.3 176,642.5 34,001.4
Oct 186,370.4 177,757.6 34,172.8
Nov 188,059.1 179,633.8 35,338.0
Dec 188,815.4 180,308.1 35,828.2
2003
Jan 190,001.1 181,528.0 36,451.7
Feb 190,394.6 182,079.5 36,119.1
Mar 191,745.3 183,525.0 36,868.3
Apr 191,476.6 184,468.8 36,461.7
May 191,406.9 184,342.0 36,552.9
Jun 191,646.7 184,650.2 36,709.2
Jul 192,676.7 185,714.4 37,164.5
Aug 192,868.3 185,946.1 37,316.0
Sep 191,907.6 185,136.2 38,026.8
Oct 198,784.7 192,083.9 38,458.9
Nov 198,620.5 193,472.8 38,630.3
Dec 200,044.3 194,828.5 38,722.6
2004
Jan 205,688.8 200,442.1 40,123.5
Feb 206,222.4 200,990.4 40,463.7
Mar 206,960.8 201,702.9 41,418.6
Apr 209,420.0 204,168.3 40,399.7
May 209,464.9 204,339.7 41,832.1
Jun 209,543.3 204,370.5 41,118.9
Jul 209,463.8 204,299.7 42,069.6
Aug 208,381.6 203,208.2 41,430.3
Sep 205,928.5 200,748.9 41,891.9
Oct 207,908.9 202,710.7 43,491.4
Nov 209,040.7 203,842.7 43,887.2
Dec 212,182.7 206,977.9 44,162.3
2005
Jan 210,687.5 205,498.9 44,473.3
Feb 212,058.9 206,858.4 43,192.9
Mar 215,731.6 210,430.6 45,021.1
Apr 216,340.3 210,981.9 44,666.6
May 216,370.1 210,941.1 45,294.8
Jun 219,239.2 213,696.2 45,778.2
Jul 220,700.1 215,162.7 45,726.8
Aug 221,005.3 215,417.2 44,894.6
Sep 223,080.5 217,358.8 45,727.8
Oct 225,092.5 219,287.4 46,137.9
Nov 225,206.3 219,421.3 46,783.6
Dec 225,699.6 219,798.3 46,085.9
2006
Jan 225,120.9 219,128.1 47,000.5
Feb 230,062.1 224,040.2 47,081.3
Mar 233,590.3 227,494.5 48,303.2
Apr 236,965.8 230,903.9 49,003.2
May 242,723.7 236,538.2 49,565.0
Jun 243,714.4 237,497.0 48,776.9
Jul 244,372.7 238,232.3 48,943.9
Aug 249,353.4 243,224.2 50,080.7
Sep 251,352.4 245,129.7 49,201.8
Oct 256,870.5 250,631.0 49,981.1
Nov 260,901.4 254,616.2 50,684.8
Dec 268,749.1 262,369.8 52,242.6
2007
Jan 272,593.1 266,098.7 54,334.7
Feb 279,809.4 273,110.6 55,125.8
Mar 286,753.9 279,843.9 55,448.1
Apr 291,541.0 284,475.2 55,488.0
May 296,953.8 289,477.5 58,313.9
Jun 301,275.4 293,612.5 59,761.1
Jul 300,570.2 292,327.5 60,075.4
Aug 300,642.0 292,325.4 61,169.8
Sep 302,682.3 294,139.2 60,941.0
Oct 304,600.2 295,743.2 63,206.1
Nov 305,781.9 296,734.3 62,724.4
Dec 306,754.9 297,558.9 63,938.6
2008
Jan 309,050.4 299,682.9 67,827.4
Feb 315,635.4 306,221.9 69,445.1
Mar 322,708.4 313,280.4 68,875.7
Apr 327,653.4 318,322.5 71,576.6
May 323,808.2 314,463.8 71,909.3
Jun 325,082.4 315,700.0 73,016.5
Jul 329,677.4 320,481.3 73,080.0
Aug 326,918.9 317,784.9 73,527.8
Sep 333,807.8 324,687.2 75,633.7
Oct 340,621.7 331,584.3 75,250.7
Nov 340,866.2 331,808.7 74,390.7
Dec 342,387.5 333,411.1 75,703.8
2009
Jan 346,731.5 337,912.9 83,221.0
Feb 349,116.5 340,379.8 82,491.3
Mar 357,888.1 349,271.7 85,167.5
Apr 357,721.7 349,240.2 84,579.2
May 358,377.8 350,152.3 84,953.7
Jun 364,357.1 356,326.7 86,745.7
Jul 366,333.9 358,460.6 87,984.4
Aug 365,540.1 357,859.2 89,258.3
Sep 368,848.9 361,298.6 91,201.5
Oct 369,763.0 362,243.9 91,869.7
Nov 372,555.1 365,183.1 93,287.3
Dec 378,442.9 371,124.8 93,474.0
2010
Jan 381,719.0 374,447.0 95,059.9
Feb 380,817.5 373,689.0 96,894.7
Mar 387,094.8 380,019.0 96,995.1
Apr 387,480.6 380,518.6 99,108.5
May 388,601.0 381,642.1 101,843.6
Jun 389,470.5 382,499.8 102,457.8
Jul 392,197.6 385,323.5 102,958.4
Aug 394,064.5 387,148.6 105,542.7
Sep 397,782.4 390,847.5 106,789.2
Oct 405,536.1 398,617.4 108,349.5
Nov P 408,439.1 401,429.3 111,986.9

over the last 20 years, M1 enlarged to 10 times, M2 6 - 7 times.

2. the huge influx of foreign capital, most of them are kept in the property market. don't think there is any other market which can absorb that kind of money.

[egghead]

Hi egghead, your Case B scenerio is a little too rosy on the rental yield side.

Hi me Engineer, if I discount the Case B rental yield by 20% (i.e. duration when rental not collected) and increase the interest rate to 2.5%, the annual cash flow collection is lowered very much to $6,500.

It does show that without having to study financial statements, business nature, etc, it was possible, and easy, for many to profit from property investment.

It should also be important to recognise that Case A is done without leverage so there is much more peace of mind compared with Case B.

---

Based on what I know, it is quite tough to get positive cashflow (rental more than interest) in properties.

I should also highlight that my calculation for Case B cashflow excludes the payment for loan capital which is required by the bank (i.e. it is interest only). In real life, it is indeed not easy to get positive cash flow because of the need to pay down the loan capital.