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I have invested in illiquidity Stocks. Guess I am able to comment some.
IMO liquidity is also partly due to valuation. When the stock is cheap, usually with a reason(doesn't matter what is the reason), liquidity dropped. When price goes up, liquidity improved.
Since liquidity is not there, buying and selling became a problem.
Solution for buying is pretty easy. Just don't chase the share price up.
IMO, there is no solution for existing fast. So buying into illiquid stock mean one has to ensure he/she will not to dump stock suddenly and fast.
For myself, I never react to quarterly or 6monthly results. Positive or negative. In fact, it is hardly that I am surprised by these 3/6 monthly results. If I am, that mean I have not done my homework. Actually I am totally fine if quarterly reporting is removed.
Also no one can talk me into viewing the company differently. I don't take comments in this forum seriously as well.
Investing in illiquid stock work for me but not everyone.
Is it for you? You do not have the option of fast and clean exit.
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IMHO, if investing in illiquid stocks, you have to be comfortable staying invested for a long time. Definitely not somewhere to park funds that need withdrawing in a hurry. But then again, that should be the case for any equity investment. Should be comfortable to hold long term.
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(10-08-2016, 09:24 AM)slowandsteady Wrote: (09-08-2016, 10:37 PM)beau Wrote: (09-08-2016, 06:51 PM)slowandsteady Wrote: (09-08-2016, 12:13 PM)beau Wrote: (03-08-2016, 11:33 AM)BlueKelah Wrote: IMHO more of a proxy for shipping and construction sectors in ASEAN country. Mgt has said in the past downturn in shipping affected their orders from Indonesia and locally quite significantly.
Will have to watch those sectors for recovery before getting more of this counter.
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I understand that everyone has their way of investing, but what ever happened to the bottoms up approach of investing? After all, valuebuddies is a value investor's forum for value investing. I feel that as value investors we should be less focused on the macroeconomics of a sector and more on the individual stock first.
This is one of the very few home grown companies on the SGX trading below net cash, they have been recently profitable for two quarters and have consistently given out a dividend every year. I think waiting for any sectors to recover will only lead to decision paralysis and one not doing anything, whereas this is a very investible company following most tenets of Graham's teachings.
My only concern is the liquidity of this company and exiting big positions. Does anyone know if there's a general guideline as to how much one could invest in this 60m market cap without getting stuck by liquidity? Will a 6 digit amount be difficult to accumulate/exit?
6 digits in dollars or shares? Average volume for the past year has been around 300 lots per day, for a dollar value of around $50k a day.So either way it should be fine. You'll realise volume has boosted up significantly since March, when Winstedt Chong started liquidating his stake on the open market. He should be nearly done now, assuming he continued to offload at around 80% of total traded volume after dipping below 5%. Get a feeling liquidity will dry up once he's done, and go back to the old sleepy ways.
6 digits in dollars. How do you get 80% or is it arbitrary? And what do you mean by 'dipping below 5%'?
Based on the percentage of total volume he was selling when he was still above 5% substantial shareholding and had to declare his dealings. Between March 4 and May 10 he accounted for 84% of all traded shares. After falling below 5% holding of the company, he did not need to declare transactions anymore, so I assumed he continued at a similar pace.
Thanks for the explanation slowandsteady. Where do you go to check that he accounted for 84% of all traded shares? I am only able to get the reports for March 4 and May 10 under Company Disclosures in SGX.
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beau, I get the total transacted volume from yahoo finance (4,321,500 between March 4 to May 10), and total sold by Chong from SGX announcement (20,577,000-16,950,000=3,627,000). So that's 84%.
Since then, from May 11 till now total volume is 18,344,500. Assuming similar 84% comes from Chong's offloading, then he sold 15,409,380. He had 16,950,000 as of May 10, so he'll be down to his last 1.5 million shares. Considering recent volume, he should be done in at most a week.
If you check, you'll realise on both days where Chong's transaction was announced, he made up 100% of traded volume. Before he started selling in March, daily volume averaged 30,000 a day (I took from Jan 1 2015 to Mar 4 2016). So I expect once he's done, it'll be back to its illiquid days with lots of zero volume days.
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(11-08-2016, 01:59 PM)slowandsteady Wrote: beau, I get the total transacted volume from yahoo finance (4,321,500 between March 4 to May 10), and total sold by Chong from SGX announcement (20,577,000-16,950,000=3,627,000). So that's 84%.
Since then, from May 11 till now total volume is 18,344,500. Assuming similar 84% comes from Chong's offloading, then he sold 15,409,380. He had 16,950,000 as of May 10, so he'll be down to his last 1.5 million shares. Considering recent volume, he should be done in at most a week.
If you check, you'll realise on both days where Chong's transaction was announced, he made up 100% of traded volume. Before he started selling in March, daily volume averaged 30,000 a day (I took from Jan 1 2015 to Mar 4 2016). So I expect once he's done, it'll be back to its illiquid days with lots of zero volume days.
This post is truly very informative. Thanks again for explaining with solid figures.
It seems like there is no function to add all the volume from Mar 4 to May 10 on Yahoo Finance. Did you manually add up all the volume day by day to get 4,321,500?
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(12-08-2016, 04:48 PM)beau Wrote: (11-08-2016, 01:59 PM)slowandsteady Wrote: beau, I get the total transacted volume from yahoo finance (4,321,500 between March 4 to May 10), and total sold by Chong from SGX announcement (20,577,000-16,950,000=3,627,000). So that's 84%.
Since then, from May 11 till now total volume is 18,344,500. Assuming similar 84% comes from Chong's offloading, then he sold 15,409,380. He had 16,950,000 as of May 10, so he'll be down to his last 1.5 million shares. Considering recent volume, he should be done in at most a week.
If you check, you'll realise on both days where Chong's transaction was announced, he made up 100% of traded volume. Before he started selling in March, daily volume averaged 30,000 a day (I took from Jan 1 2015 to Mar 4 2016). So I expect once he's done, it'll be back to its illiquid days with lots of zero volume days.
This post is truly very informative. Thanks again for explaining with solid figures.
It seems like there is no function to add all the volume from Mar 4 to May 10 on Yahoo Finance. Did you manually add up all the volume day by day to get 4,321,500?
You're welcome. I use the export to excel function from yahoo data, from there you can sum up the volume.
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(31-08-2016, 12:16 AM)desmondxyz Wrote: http://infopub.sgx.com/Apps?A=COW_CorpAn...85d92b6ef4
Share buyback started...
Share buybacks below cash value provides us with a rare situation where the cash/share increases as buyback continues. Before the buyback yesterday:
$68,050,000 / 341,917,487 shares equates to 19.9025c cash per share
After buyback of 168,000 shares at $29,109
$68,020,891 / 341,749,487 shares equates to 19.9037c cash per share (closed yesterday at 17.2c)
Of course that's ignoring the extra "free" business (not that it's any good, but considering it's free...), three warehouses located in Singapore (494,430 sqft, about size of eight football fields), steel inventory (yes price drop, industry not good, but hey.. it's free! Steel price is at its highest point in 20 months), and a local management team that has been doing this for 55 years.
I know many buddies here have mentioned how the macro factors do not bode well for AEH, which I do agree.. but I guess we'll have to agree to disagree on valuation as I think this is way undervalued and provides me with a high buffer of safety margin, based on my personal preference of bottom up, balance sheet based investment.
Vested core, queue up daily, latest filled yesterday.
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Haha no need to queue lah, just call ur broker see the queue and wack the share* u want then go off play pokemon go.
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1) Try NOT to LOSE money!
2) Do NOT SELL in BEAR, BUY-BUY-BUY! invest in managements/companies that does the same!
3) CASH in hand is KING in BEAR!
4) In BULL, SELL-SELL-SELL!
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