US Economic News

[CY09]

On a side note, it is possible to find multi baggers in the oil and gas space. This is because many companies are making losses and have multi year low share prices. A turnaround to profit means the possibility of share prices rebounding

[tonylim]

On a side note, it is possible to find multi baggers in the oil and gas space.  This is because many companies are making losses and have multi year low share prices. A turnaround to profit means the possibility of share prices rebounding

Hi CY09 ,  Please share what is / are the possible counters that might be the multi baggers , thanks.
I am vested in EZION and MTQ  .

[AQ.]

The current bear market has lasted longer than I have expected. Could this be the start of the bear everyone has been expecting?

Market indices are certainly lower, but I think the market is still very much efficient as the good stocks still aren't really cheap. I haven't been able to buy anything I've been eyeing, yet. I guess we are still some way from the kind of fear that will produce next decade's multi bagger...

Actually I am surprised this selloff took so long!

tariffs on 200b of China imports+retaliation in Aug/Sep
Fed raising in Sep + potential 4th thereafter
US elections hence more hawkish rhetorics on Nov 6

throw in a couple more right-wing swings in elections + rise in CPI and i think we have enough to send equities into tailspin in 2H18
real rates already +ve, which is a sharp change in paradigm among global CBs.

Personally i have raised, and will continue to raise cash+safe holdings. Risk/Reward not favorable by any measure.

time to test if the 10-11yr equity dump cycles materialises.

The final straw prob came in FOMC where Powell&gang, in his hike-till-something-breaks mode, suggests hiking past neutral.

I think with Fed having plenty of ammo to reverse, fwd guidance, QE + PBoC essentially already starting stealth easing, a huge GFC is not imminent for next few mths. The current sentiment reminds me more of 2007 where people start to see cracks; whether it turns into 2008 where everything gives way remains to b seen.

The significant thing to me,other than US mids in Nov (if Dems retake house, congress should start to be lameduck+Trump impeachment tussle; otherwise it will be a strong endorsement of Trump leading to more fire&fury), is European Parliament elections in 2019. If Bannon/Farage/LePen & gang succeeds in doing what Trump did in swinging right and Nationalism overwhelms Globalisation leading to a new world order, the outcome will be a serious black swan.

[Dosser]

On a side note, it is possible to find multi baggers in the oil and gas space.  This is because many companies are making losses and have multi year low share prices. A turnaround to profit means the possibility of share prices rebounding

At the moment the oil and gas stocks on the SGX are largely the opposite of multi-baggers compared with their historic highs. Not sure what the opposite is - multi-losers, multi-unbaggers, multi-tossers (as in tossing away money), lemons? However, the stronger ones have the POTENTIAL to be multi-baggers sometime in the future, if the oil price stays strong and investment ramps up again. They may well be dragged down temporarily by general market sentiment, but that will just make the potential gains even greater if they survive and start making decent profits again. Selection and (to a lesser extent) timing will be critical.

The oil and gas majors (non-SGX) are in the money and there are signs of some increase in exploration investment. Just a question of how fast the $$$ filter through to the local companies, and then, finally, on to the investors. However, lots of uncertainties - Iran, Saudi, how fast the bottlenecks in US shale oil supply can be overcome, how much capacity has been lost in the downturn.

[valueinvestor]

On a side note, it is possible to find multi baggers in the oil and gas space.  This is because many companies are making losses and have multi year low share prices. A turnaround to profit means the possibility of share prices rebounding

At the moment the oil and gas stocks on the SGX are largely the opposite of multi-baggers compared with their historic highs. Not sure what the opposite is - multi-losers, multi-unbaggers, multi-tossers (as in tossing away money), lemons? However, the stronger ones have the POTENTIAL to be multi-baggers sometime in the future, if the oil price stays strong and investment ramps up again. They may well be dragged down temporarily by general market sentiment, but that will just make the potential gains even greater if they survive and start making decent profits again. Selection and (to a lesser extent) timing will be critical.

The oil and gas majors (non-SGX) are in the money and there are signs of some increase in exploration investment. Just a question of how fast the $$$ filter through to the local companies, and then, finally, on to the investors. However, lots of uncertainties - Iran, Saudi, how fast the bottlenecks in US shale oil supply can be overcome, how much capacity has been lost in the downturn.

O & G is clearly a bombed-out sector with potential for multi-baggers , but which sector has more potential among all sectors ?

[CY09]

If i could accurately and clearly mark out which sub sector could be a multi bagger, I think I would be rich by now.

Investment is not that simple where one can just plonk money into one stock and make big bucks from it, it is always important to diversify or research thoroughly into the companies before deciding. If ever there are people who tell you, you will can make guaranteed returns from a particular stock/Fund; i would strongly advise for you to inform the guy to provide you a letter of undertaking to achieve the desired returns otherwise he pays you the difference.

[mkmk]

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/19/fed-hike...oint-.html

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised its benchmark interest rate a quarter-point but lowered its projections for future hikes.

As markets had expected, the central bank took the target range for its benchmark funds rate to 2.25 percent to 2.5 percent. The move marked the fourth increase this year and the ninth since it began normalizing rates in December 2015. It came despite President Donald Trump's tweets against rate hikes. On Monday, he said "it is incredible" that "the Fed is even considering yet another interest rate hike."

Officials, though, now project two hikes next year, which is a reduction but still ahead of current market pricing of no additional moves next year.

The language in the post-meeting statement was not entirely dovish, or easy on its outlook for rates. The committee continued to include a statement that more rate hikes would be appropriate, though it did soften the tone a bit.

"The Committee judges that some further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be consistent with sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective over the medium term," the statement said.

The only changes from the November post-meeting statement was adding "some" to describe the trajectory of future rate moves and said it now "judges" rate increases to be appropriate whereas November's said "expects."

Along with the hike, investors had been keyed on where the Federal Open Market Committee, which sets rates, expected to go in the future. Heading into this week's two-day meeting, the committee had been pointing to three more moves in 2019 and possibly another one in 2020.

That changed amid tightening financial conditions and worries that the Fed was moving too quickly. Stock indexes have moved into correction territory and are largely negative for the year.

Markets stumbled up and down after the decision then ultimately turned sharply negative during Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's news conference. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down 352 points, a 733-point reversal from the highs of the day.

"While this was a dovish hike from the stance that the Fed was in before, this is somewhat not as dovish as many participants probably wanted," said Charlie Ripley, senior investment strategist for Allianz Investment Managemet. "It would have been a difficult move for the Fed to completely remove some of the 2019 hike expectations, but I think they're making the message clear that they're going to remain more data dependent as we go into 2019."

In one tip to those looking for a more dovish outlook, the committee assured that it will "continue to monitor global economic and financial developments and assess their implications for the economic outlook."

That essentially reinforces recent public statements from Fed officials that they will be data dependent when making future rate decisions.

The FOMC also lowered its outlook for the long-run funds rate, from 3 percent in the September forecast to 2.8 percent this month. The 2019 estimate declined to 2.9 percent from 3.1 percent and both 2020 and 2021 dropped to 3.1 percent from 3.4 percent.

The funds rate is tied to most consumer debt, particularly credit cards and adjustable-rate loans.

"We think Fed Chair Powell delivered a clear message: when the Fed has reached the neutral target range, there is a need for greater caution and policy to become ever more data dependent," said Michelle Meyer, US economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. "This means that the threshold to bring rates into restrictive territory - above the neutral rate - is high. The Fed would need to see convincing data including a further decline in the unemployment rate, above target inflation with inflation expectations shifting higher and cooperative financial markets."

Lowered GDP outlook

There were no dissents in the vote to hike, but the "dot plot" of individual committee members' estimates show some division among members. Six still see three increases next year, down from nine in September, when officials last released their projections. Sixteen members in all submitted dots at this week's meeting.

Along with the tempered estimates for rates, the committee nudged lower its projections both for GDP and inflation.

GDP is now seen as rising 3 percent for the full year of 2018, down one-tenth of a percentage point from September, and 2.3 percent for 2019, a 0.2 percent point reduction. However, officials took up their long-run estimates, to 1.9 percent from 1.8 percent in September.

Overall, though, Fed officials expressed little worry about economic growth. GDP gains have averaged 3.3 percent per quarter this year, and the Atlanta Fed is forecasting a 2.9 percent increase in the fourth quarter.

Where the market is worried that the U.S. might be infected by a global slowdown, the FOMC statement showed little concern.

Officials continued to describe economic growth as "rising at a strong rate" and left descriptions of other parts of economic activity unchanged as well.

The summary of economic projections did note that headline inflation is expected to grow less quickly than the September estimate, slipping to 1.9 percent from 2.1 percent in 2018 and to 1.9 percent from 2 percent in 2019. The longer-run expectation remains 2 percent.

[Behappyalways]

Warren Buffett Can’t Find Anything Big to Buy
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-bu...00515.html

[Behappyalways]

2019.02.23【文茜世界周報】貝佐斯婚外情曝光離婚　媒體與政治惡戰
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KwLnn1OZ...AU&index=8

[Behappyalways]

2019.03.03【文茜世界周報】忠犬反咬主人　前律師大曝川普黑暗面
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VTl3oBka...AU&index=4