US Economic News

[corydorus]

To hike or not depends on US employment and Inflation figures. Another i observe is the ballooning US property price which can be a serious concern later if rates are not curtail.

Check this out: http://www.valuebuddies.com/thread-5133-...#pid119813

Yeah i read that before. Priority for US Gov is still US. They will put themselves first if they see internal home criss after that will they think whether it helps them to help others.

[FA+TA]

Dow slumps 392 points on China worries

[Image: MW-DL661_china_20150511004258_ZH.jpg?uui...7b4d977af7]

[BlueKelah]

Wah continue slumping on friday despite good jobs report? perhaps interest rate rise is starting to suck credit out of the system. Or perhaps just those fund managers windows undressing [FACE WITH TEARS OF JOY]

sent from my Galaxy Tab S

[BlueKelah]

Bloomberg - Some Bankrupt Oil and Gas Drillers Can't Give Their Assets Away http://bloom.bg/1PoUI7o

Sent from my MotoG3 using Tapatalk

[CityFarmer]

It shows the "difficulty" to predict market movement, even among top expert in the field...

Goldman Sachs abandons five of six 'top trade' calls for 2016

NEW YORK (Feb 10): Goldman Sachs to clients: whoops. Just six weeks into 2016, the New York-based bank has abandoned five of six recommended top trades for the year.
...
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/sg/article...calls-2016

[CityFarmer]

The market expectation, shifted from 3-4 rate hikes, to "ONLY" 2...

Wall Street leans toward only two Fed rate hikes before year-end: Reuters poll

(March 5): A majority of Wall Street's top banks now expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates only two more times by the end of the year, a downgrade of earlier expectations that may presage the Fed's own revised view of its path when it meets in less than two weeks.

A Reuters poll shows the median forecast of 17 primary dealers that deal directly with the Fed is for a federal funds rate of 0.875% by the end of the year, reflecting the mid-point of the range for two key rates used by the Fed to adjust monetary policy.

Early in January, not long after the Fed's first rate hike in nearly a decade, Wall Street dealers expected three rate increases. Members of the Fed, meanwhile, were forecasting a rate consistent with four increases by the end of 2016 back in late December.
...
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/sg/article...uters-poll

[CityFarmer]

Market is still expecting two rate risings, but confidence level is lower...

Fed to raise rates twice this year but conviction fading

The U.S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates twice this year, most likely next in June, but the probability has faded on signs of a weak start to the year, inflation that is still tame and a brittle global backdrop, a Reuters poll showed.
...
http://www.todayonline.com/business/fed-...uters-poll

[BlueKelah]

Unexpected for many investors. Looks like more pain ahead for REITs. Property stock which have appreciated recently will probably be down as well.

Probably we are seeing the start of much higher rates and possibly hyperinflation in the US economy as well.

the US10YR is now 2.48% liao. Very likely to hit 3% in the near term, with markets over-reacting to every bit of news nowadays.

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Yellen Hints at More Aggressive Rate Path Upon Locking in March

• Fed chief cites risk of central bank being too slow to move
  
  
• Yellen says rate hike this month ‘likely’ appropriate
  
  
  Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen left little doubt on Friday that the central bank will raise interest rates this month. More importantly, she dropped hints that it might end up having to increase them this year more than planned.
  In a speech to The Executives’ Club of Chicago, Yellen singled out the danger of the central bank being too slow in boosting rates.Janet Yellen on March 3.Photographer: Charles Rex Arbogast/AP Photo“We realize that waiting too long to scale back some of our support could potentially require us to raise rates rapidly sometime down the road, which in turn could risk disrupting financial markets and pushing the economy into recession,” she said.Yellen all but declared that the Federal Open Market Committee would increase rates for the first time this year at its March 14-15 meeting, saying that such a move “would likely be appropriate” if the economy stays on its current track. She also suggested that would not be the last increase this year.

[Duskerdawn]

http://www.businessinsider.sg/subprime-a...XKoRCgI.97

Almost anyone can get a car loan now — and that’s not a good thing for the country
by
FRANK CHAPARRO

It said the bank knowingly bought high-risk auto loans, including Boluch’s, from a group of dealers it identified as “fraud dealers.” The bank bundled the loans and sold them to other investors.

People with credit scores of about 600 and below are considered especially risky by lenders. That’s why they issue so-called subprime loans to them that generally have higher interest rates. Subprime auto loans make up $179 billion of the auto-loan market, a 16% share, but that balance has been increasing at a rapid clip.

With delinquency rates moving higher, the lenders and investors in an auto-loan ABS deals stand to lose.

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With the interest rate hikes, subprime auto loans are likely to face a liquidity squeeze and increased defaults. Although I do not think its as severe as the a mortgage crisis and it would at most cause a minor correction as auto-loans are a smaller.

https://www.bls.gov/cex/2015/aggregate/cucomp.pdf
Consumer Expenditure Survey by The United States Burea of Labour Statistics
Utilising the total units of consumption:-
Housing: 2,364,054
Transportation: 1,220,227

The statistics imply that impact would around half.

[Behappyalways]

The Truth About Earnings and Stock Valuations
https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/article...valuations