Starhub

[dreamybear]

Hi bear,
A cut loss can actually be the best (or happiest) day on hindsight. How one make use of it is actually dependent on the lessons that he/she is able to brutally and objectively derive. While there are some "street lessons", but actually most investing mistakes are personal and involves us having to be brutally honest with yourselves on our limitations, biases and most importantly, pride.

I have never built any investment thesis for equities based on the basis of "minimum dividend". This is probably made easier because at this stage of my life, my spending is not dependent on dividends.

While I don't know the exact details of your thoughts and journey on Starhub, but from what you revealed above, it seems like you probably depended too much on Mgt's dividend guidance - whether is it buying the stock or selling it.

You may want to read (or re-read) the Starhub thread in VB and check for yourself where you might have gone wrong over here. VBs don't really depend on any guidance from Mgt that guarantees the dividend. We look at the FCF and the most importantly, the business supporting the FCF. Only this gives the assurance of whether dividends will be paid out. A guarantee is not the same as an assurance.

Thanks for your kind words and reminder.

In fact, I do think the $0.09 dividends is sustainable at least in the medium term (sans the covid-19) compared to the previous $0.16(in which I wasn't vested). My personal valuation for starhub has so far been close to the mkt valuation. The investment was more to park my spare cash at a particular point in time(when the economy is firing on all cylinders) while waiting for good opportunities. In fact, I am pretty sure it wld be a profitable "arbitrage type of trade" if not for the covid-19. A bonus wld be for it to be borrowed(share lending) or taken private.

It was not meant to be a traditional kind of value investing, but to earn more money than bank interest.

Of course, with the current situation, I feel the capital can be better deployed into value counters. In any case, yeah, just have to move on.

[BRT]

It's a sad day for bear. After months of deliberation, I hv decided to cut loss on my Starhub position. Although small in percentage-wise with the help of dividends rec'd, quite a notable amt due to the overall quantum invested.

My initial investment thesis was built upon a 6% yield based on a min of $0.09 annual dividend and also the new CEO Peter Kaliaropoulos. However, with the latest results announcement, I am no longer confident of it sustaining its dividend yield and also not optimistic abt its earning prospects moving fwd, due to the ongoing covid-19 situation.

Perhaps, I was also somewhat influenced by WB's decision to sell the airline stocks as he's unsure of what has changed*. Quite naive of me to think that Starhub may not be as badly affected since most people staying at home using digital services.

=======

"...While StarHub cut payouts in 2019 as it switched from a fixed to a variable dividend policy, chief executive Peter Kaliaropoulos has now also told an earnings call that the move also scraps its earlier plan to keep this year’s annual dividend at S$0.09 a share..."
https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/compani...0-earnings

https://links.sgx.com/1.0.0/corporate-an...624b1cc012  [1Q2020 announcements]

* https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/02/warren-b...virus.html

"chief executive Peter Kaliaropoulos has now also told an earnings call that the move also scraps its earlier plan to keep this year’s annual dividend at S$0.09 a share"

do you happen to have a link to the call or transcript or thats as far as your source goes? i went through the sgx announcements and figures and theres no talk abt the dividend. the numbers are not surprising as all of their segments have been tumbling for many quarters, as they should, given the competitive landscape, except their enterprise solutions. all that considered, i thought their cut to 9c/yr dividend is sustainable, given improving fcf, albeit not with a huge mos. so whatever he said on that call is a bit worrying.

[Musicwhiz]

It's a sad day for bear. After months of deliberation, I hv decided to cut loss on my Starhub position. Although small in percentage-wise with the help of dividends rec'd, quite a notable amt due to the overall quantum invested.

My initial investment thesis was built upon a 6% yield based on a min of $0.09 annual dividend and also the new CEO Peter Kaliaropoulos. However, with the latest results announcement, I am no longer confident of it sustaining its dividend yield and also not optimistic abt its earning prospects moving fwd, due to the ongoing covid-19 situation.

Perhaps, I was also somewhat influenced by WB's decision to sell the airline stocks as he's unsure of what has changed*. Quite naive of me to think that Starhub may not be as badly affected since most people staying at home using digital services.

=======

"...While StarHub cut payouts in 2019 as it switched from a fixed to a variable dividend policy, chief executive Peter Kaliaropoulos has now also told an earnings call that the move also scraps its earlier plan to keep this year’s annual dividend at S$0.09 a share..."
https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/compani...0-earnings

https://links.sgx.com/1.0.0/corporate-an...624b1cc012  [1Q2020 announcements]

* https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/02/warren-b...virus.html

"chief executive Peter Kaliaropoulos has now also told an earnings call that the move also scraps its earlier plan to keep this year’s annual dividend at S$0.09 a share"

do you happen to have a link to the call or transcript or thats as far as your source goes? i went through the sgx announcements and figures and theres no talk abt the dividend. the numbers are not surprising as all of their segments have been tumbling for many quarters, as they should, given the competitive landscape, except their enterprise solutions. all that considered, i thought their cut to 9c/yr dividend is sustainable, given improving fcf, albeit not with a huge mos. so whatever he said on that call is a bit worrying.

Hi,

Here is the link to Starhub's 1Q 2020 transcript >> http://ir.starhub.com/FormBuilder/_Resou...Update.pdf

Seems there is not much talk on scrapping dividends specifically, just that there is no more "guidance". But it's clear dividends have been suspended for now.

Hope this helps.

[Shiyi]

StarHub unveils three contract-free SIM-only options, axes default mobile contract plans
The Straits Times Dec 05, 2018

SINGAPORE - The reputation of Singapore telcos is in decline, a key StarHub executive has suggested, even as the company moved on Wednesday (Dec 5) to replace its existing slate of post-paid mobile plans.

The telco has unveiled a set of three contract-free SIM-only options, in its first consumer mobile product offering since Mr Peter Kaliaropoulos took over as chief executive in July.......

Read more at : http://www.asiaone.com/singapore/starhub...ract-plans

This news story looks quite weird to me. The intro is eye-catching, but the whole story has not explained what and how or why the reputation of Singapore telcos is in decline. Care to elaborate?

[dreamybear]

StarHub unveils three contract-free SIM-only options, axes default mobile contract plans
The Straits Times Dec 05, 2018

SINGAPORE - The reputation of Singapore telcos is in decline, a key StarHub executive has suggested, even as the company moved on Wednesday (Dec 5) to replace its existing slate of post-paid mobile plans.

The telco has unveiled a set of three contract-free SIM-only options, in its first consumer mobile product offering since Mr Peter Kaliaropoulos took over as chief executive in July.......

Read more at : http://www.asiaone.com/singapore/starhub...ract-plans

This news story looks quite weird to me. The intro is eye-catching, but the whole story has not explained what and how or why the reputation of Singapore telcos is in decline. Care to elaborate?

If you click on the ST link at the end of the asiaone article, i.e. "This article was first published in The Straits Times.", there is this passage : "....In a statement on Wednesday (Dec 5), StarHub chief of consumer business group Johan Buse said: "We hate to admit it, but people do not rate telcos highly......

.....referring to the incumbent telcos being seen as slow in innovating to meet consumer needs...."

Unfortunately, the contact of the asiaone author was not listed in the article for clarification. I think that was what the author meant by the reputation thingy(my own interpretation). I think the ST article might be clearer in context. Hope it helps.

[dreamybear]

"chief executive Peter Kaliaropoulos has now also told an earnings call that the move also scraps its earlier plan to keep this year’s annual dividend at S$0.09 a share"

do you happen to have a link to the call or transcript or thats as far as your source goes? i went through the sgx announcements and figures and theres no talk abt the dividend. the numbers are not surprising as all of their segments have been tumbling for many quarters, as they should, given the competitive landscape, except their enterprise solutions. all that considered, i thought their cut to 9c/yr dividend is sustainable, given improving fcf, albeit not with a huge mos. so whatever he said on that call is a bit worrying.

Hi,

Here is the link to Starhub's 1Q 2020 transcript >> http://ir.starhub.com/FormBuilder/_Resou...Update.pdf

Seems there is not much talk on scrapping dividends specifically, just that there is no more "guidance". But it's clear dividends have been suspended for now.

Hope this helps.

Thanks Musicwhiz for the link - I didn't know the link was there.

BRT - I also only read the "new initiative" from the BT article. Thanks for putting the investment considerations in such a succinct manner, yes the mos is not high, and with the economy's deteriorating fundamentals(I am now actually more negative than I previously was abt the economy albeit the stk mkt performance), I think the outlook is increasingly uncertain.

Was also surprised by TPG's $10 50GB plans and wondering if it cld exert some price pressure on the sim-only plans mkt(notwithstanding other considerations like coverage quality, etc). Starhub's APRU in 1Q2020 is $34.

[CY09]

Its not just TPG that starhub has to be worried of.

In recent times, some of the larger MVNO (such as myrepublic) has shifted buying bandwidth from Starhub to M1.

And the MVNOs are lowering their prices, such as myrepublic has a $10 for 6GB SIM only under M1 coverage. M1 also has circles life as a MVNO customer also. This is putting pressure on starhub's revenue, besides falling paytv subscription due to Netflix

[BRT]

thanks musicwhiz, dreamybear

[weijian]

Hi,

Here is the link to Starhub's 1Q 2020 transcript >> http://ir.starhub.com/FormBuilder/_Resou...Update.pdf

Seems there is not much talk on scrapping dividends specifically, just that there is no more "guidance". But it's clear dividends have been suspended for now.

Hope this helps.

As Starhub promised back in May, that they would have more clarity on guidance in 2Q19, they have guided that they have switched to a dividednd policy to pay out "at least 80% of net profit (adjusted for one-off, non-recurring items) on a semi annual basis".

A % of profit probably make more sense than an absolute DPS number, especially when you have a declining business (with no end in sight thus far). And they should have done so much earlier but unfortunately the earlier absolute DPS number expectations by the Market, were too great for Mgt to immediately change.

1H2020 PR: https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/2Q1H2020M...eID=626668
1H2020 results: https://links.sgx.com/FileOpen/2Q1H2020....eID=626667

[weijian]

When your suppliers start to consolidate..you have to be really very very careful.

AT&T to merge media assets with Discovery in US$43b deal

AT&T gained some of the biggest brands in entertainment through its US$85 billion acquisition of Time Warner, completed in 2018. The transaction includes all of AT&T's WarnerMedia operations. In addition to CNN and HBO, AT&T's WarnerMedia division owns Cartoon Network, TBS, TNT and the Warner Bros studio.

Discovery, backed by cable mogul John Malone, controls networks such as TLC and Animal Planet. Discovery shares were halted for the announcement, last trading up 17 per cent in pre-market trading. AT&T stock rose 4.8 per cent.

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/consume...us43b-deal