Australia Property

[greengiraffe]

Interest rates ease fears of housing market crash

PUBLISHED: 21 JUN 2014 02:38:00 | UPDATED: 21 JUN 2014 04:18:26

REBECCA THISTLETON
Fears of a housing price bubble have given way to modest expectations about future price rises.

Economists and property commentators have reduced growth forecasts of between 6 and 10 per cent to between 5 per cent and 8 per cent for this year.

Property values are unlikely to crash as demand growth is expected to ­continue, driven by low interest rates and population growth, experts say.

“The property market has lost momentum of its own accord, without the RBA having to step in with an ­interest rate rise,” AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver said.

RP Data recorded price falls in May after consistent rises for more than a year. Sydney prices dropped 1.1 per cent, Melbourne prices 3.6 per cent, Brisbane 1.7 per cent and Perth 0.8 per cent.

Growth has moderated in Sydney, the country’s hottest market, where prices jumped 15 per cent last year.

McGrath Estate Agents chief executive John McGrath said the figures were not surprising but had not shown up in individual home sales. He reduced his prediction of 10 per cent house prices rises to 5 per cent to 8 per cent.

Auction clearance rates have ­weakened from 80 per cent-plus in Sydney and Melbourne last year to high 60s and low 70s. Houses in high-demand pockets, particularly in affordable western Sydney, are selling within a fortnight of listing as many sellers accept offers made before planned auctions.

But buyers are eager and ­competitive. Transaction volumes are higher than average. Bureau of ­Statistics housing finance figures for owner-occupying and investment were at record highs in May.

RP Data research director Tim ­Lawless said the market was slowing but demand exceeded supply. “I don’t think prices have peaked, but it is likely the market has moved through the peak of the growth cycle,” he said.

“Low rental yields are likely to act as a disincentive to investors, particularly in Melbourne and Sydney where yields are the lowest and capital gains have been the highest.”

Stockland chief executive Mark Steinert said Sydney’s property was primed for a “golden decade” of stable growth around 3 per cent to 4 per cent a year, largely due to undersupply.

BIS Shrapnel senior manager Angie Zigomanis said apartment approvals had spiked and new housing starts would rise 31 per cent in 2014-15.

While an oversupply would weaken prices in Melbourne, it would take longer for demand to be met in ­Brisbane and Sydney, he said.

He expects the Reserve Bank to increase interest rates towards the end of 2015 which would begin to worsen affordability in 2016.

“By June 2017, only the Brisbane and Sydney markets are expected to have experienced any growth in house prices in real terms over the previous three years, with all remaining capital cities expected to have recorded real price declines,” he said.

RP Data’s Tim Lawless said markets where the growth cycle lagged behind Sydney and Melbourne were better placed for growth, namely Brisbane where prices are 50 per cent lower and yields higher.

[greengiraffe]

Foreign buyers add 10pc to home prices

RICK WALLACE THE AUSTRALIAN JUNE 23, 2014 12:00AM

UNLAWFUL foreign buying of established houses is rife in Melbourne, as well as other capitals, and is adding a 10 per cent premium to prices that is crushing the hopes of local buyers, leading buyers’ agents have revealed.

They also say authorities don’t understand the impact foreign buying is having on affordability.

Responding to reports in The Australian that foreign buyers were sidestepping Foreign Investment Review Board regulations and purchasing fixed homes in Australia, veteran Melbourne buyer’s agent David McRae said Chinese and Malaysian investors often beat his clients at auction.

“We regularly get knocked off by certain sections from overseas and money is not an object to them,’’ Mr McRae said. “We don’t expect to win when I come up against people from Malay­sia or China.”

The tacit acceptance of foreigners sidestepping the law to buy ­existing residential real estate in Australia has become an open sec­ret in the property sector, as vendors and their agents look to lock in capital gains and therefore are not anxious to blow the whistle.

The main loophole in the regula­tions is the clause allowing temporary residents, such as foreign students, to purchase established property to live in for the duration of their stay. Evidence suggests these temporary residents are acting as proxies for their parents or other relatives in mainland China and elsewhere.

The FIRB and the property industry claim criticism of foreign buyers is misdirected at ethnic Chinese who are actually Aus­tralian citizens.

Mr McRae said it was easy to tell when buyers were unlawful foreign investors purchasing in their sons’ and daughters’ names because you could see them talking to their parents on the phone throughout the auction.

Another giveaway was when agents were writing down the bids to keep non-English speakers ­appraised of the progress at auctions. The property sector and regul­ators have been trying to convince a parliamentary inquiry into the issue, which is holding a hearing in Melbourne on Friday, that it is not a serious problem.

But Mr McRae said authorities — including the Reserve Bank — were wrong to assume that foreign buyers were not pricing locals out.

“Let me tell the Reserve Bank: it is a problem and it’s going to ­become a much bigger problem if they don’t do anything about it ­because the local population is being priced out,’’ he said.

“These guys really don’t understand the impact that it is having.”

He also took aim at claims from the industry that foreign buyers were solely focused on high-end homes, saying a wave of foreign investment in Melbourne’s east had added a 10 per cent premium to prices and the knock-on effect would be felt in surrounding areas.

Another long-time agent, David Morrell, said the FIRB’s enforcement regime was akin to “being slapped with a wet lettuce”.

“The rules are so lax — it’s wrong,’’ he said. “I think the FIRB have a fair job ahead of them.’’ The FIRB, which has not prosecuted anyone for breaching foreign property investment laws since 2010, has declined to comment.

[greengiraffe]

Sales pitch a winner with Chinese

THE AUSTRALIAN JUNE 23, 2014 12:00AM

Scott Murdoch

China Correspondent
Beijing
Shanghai Property Expo
Chinese investors Amy Chen and Rebecca Zhuan at a property show held by Lend Lease in Shanghai at the weekend. Picture: Dave Tacon
AUSTRALIA’S real estate market is being underpinned by cashed-up Chinese investors who seek to build a property portfolio to transfer cash out of China.

A property exhibition in Shanghai on the weekend, promoting apartments in the Darling Square development in inner Sydney, was attended by hundreds of potential buyers.

The first stage of the Lend Lease project, consisting of 357 apartments ranging in price from $700,000 to $3 million, was sold out on Saturday.

It is estimated that almost 25 per cent of the sales were to Asian buyers, primarily from mainland China, who are inundating the Australian residential property market.

A number of the investors ­visiting the Shanghai event bought apartments straight away, although construction is not due to be finalised until 2017.

Apex Investment Alliance sales director Bill Jiang said China’s capital controls meant a growing number of investors were looking to invest cash in Australia’s property market.

“Most of the capital in China these days, there are a lot of entrepreneurs, they make their own fortunate from scratch, we call it oracle money,’’ he said.

“China is reducing its restrictions on the use of capital for investment in all parts of the world. The rate of property investment by the Chinese in Europe, the US and Australia has been rising. Australia is part of that game.”

Under the current government regulations, foreign investors are restricted to buying off-the-plan properties and are not allowed to purchase established homes.

However, The Australian recently revealed that the Foreign Investment Review Board has not enforced a single penalty for any breach.

A federal parliamentary committee is examining the current investment rules amid fears that young Australians are being locked out of the market by cashed-up foreign investors.

Mr Jiang said he did not believe the rate of Chinese investment was hurting the Australian market. “I don’t think so. Chinese investment in terms of the overall market is very small,” he said.

It is estimated that Chinese buyers spent $5.9 billion on Australian real estate last year, in a market worth $270bn.

Liu Yunhuan, 53, bought her second Sydney apartment on the weekend and said Australia’s stable economy and property protection laws made it attractive.

Under Chinese laws, property buyers do not purchase the land, which remains under state ownership and leased out on a 70-year agreement.

“In Australia, when you buy an apartment you have ownership of the land, you are not worrying about the government taking it after 70 years,” Mrs Liu said.

Another investor, Mrs Yu, bought in Darling Square for her son, who is only six. Mrs Yu already owns one apartment in Sydney’s Olympic Park area.

Additional reporting: Wang Yuanyuan

[greengiraffe]

Chinese boom to double to $44bn
KYLAR LOUSSIKIAN THE AUSTRALIAN JUNE 27, 2014 12:00AM

Chinese demand for property Source: TheAustralian

CHINESE investment in Australian real estate is set to surge to $44 billion in the next seven years, almost double the $24bn recorded in the past seven.

The analysis by investment bank Credit Suisse also casts doubt on whether an inquiry into foreign investment in residential real estate would result in any policy change, “given Australia’s current economic dependence on the housing sector”.

The report found demand from overseas buyers had permanently lifted the building approval cycle, and forecast a structural shift from a three-­decade average of 158,000 approvals to more than 170,000.

Increased prosperity would see the number of Chinese who could afford to buy apartments in Sydney rising by 30 per cent.

John Richmond, real estate analyst at Credit Suisse, said he didn’t expect any major policy shifts in the short term. “Perhaps there will be some tweaking but no material changes,” he said. “We understand the inquiry is under way but there is also a reliance on housing investment for economic growth.”

Major developers often rely on off-the-plan pre-sales to foreign buyers to provide financing before construction commences.

The report points to changing migration patterns, with rising levels of Chinese and Indian immigration, coupled with greater investor activity, for pushing apartment approvals to more than double that of only four years ago. Unsurprisingly, Sydney and Melbourne are most in demand for offshore Chinese buyers, with purchases of 18 per cent and 14 per cent of new stock respectively.

Recent pre-sale activity has confirmed the trend, with the 124 apartments at Parramatta Promenade selling to Chinese buyers before the sales campaign for the property officially launched.

But interest in Australian real estate wasn’t limited to overseas homebuyers, with Credit Suisse warning of local companies facing difficulties in the heated market, amid “numerous anecdotes of offshore developers outbidding established local developers for development land”.

[Behappyalways]

Australia reviews property investment laws
http://www.aljazeera.com/video/asia-paci...63940.html

[greengiraffe]

RBA welcomes foreign property investors
AAP JUNE 27, 2014 1:40PM


RBA assistant governor Christopher Kent says foreign investors mainly buy high-density apartments in inner-city Sydney and Melbourne. Photo: Hollie Adams Source: News Corp Australia
FOREIGN investors are not pushing first-home buyers out of the property market, a central banker has said.

Rising house price rises in the past 12 months have been driven by low interest rates and a growing population rather than foreign investors, Reserve Bank of Australia assistant governor Christopher Kent told a parliamentary inquiry.

Prices have grown across the country, including cities or pockets of cities that do not typically attract foreign investors, Dr Kent said.

“The information available suggests that foreign residential purchases have probably not had a large direct effect on the price of housing that is typically purchased by first home buyers,” Dr Kent told the hearing in Sydney on Friday.

The inquiry into foreign investment in residential real estate has previously heard first-time buyers typically buy established properties, while foreign investors are only allowed to buy newly constructed property or off-the-plan.

Dr Kent said foreign demand was concentrated in high density apartments in inner-city Sydney and Melbourne, close to universities.

It was possible foreign demand was affecting prices in certain segments of the market, but it was hard to know what the impact was, if any, Dr Kent said.

“My own sense is that it’s probably had a marginal impact but you just can’t say definitively how much,” he said.

“Supply sometimes takes time to catch up to demand.

“Often you need the prices to go up so developers say ‘Now it’s profitable, it’s worth me building more units in inner-city Sydney and Melbourne’.

“That can mitigate that price effect.”

Dr Kent said the RBA was not concerned about property price rises over the past year.

Supply was just catching up to demand following a period of slow construction, relative to population growth.

Concern would be raised if a long, sharp spike in house prices continued, but the growth rate had already begun to slow, he said. Foreign investment supported local construction, while foreign-based developers added competition and provided access to alternative sources of financing, Dr Kent added.

“Foreign residential demand in Australia is linked to the rise in income and wealth globally, but particularly in Asia, which is adding to business opportunities as our economy becomes more integrated with others in the region,” Dr Kent said.

“This is welcome and to be expected.”

[greengiraffe]

Sydney house market in line for record June listings, sales
PUBLISHED: 0 HOUR 35 MINUTES AGO | UPDATE: 0 HOUR 28 MINUTES AGO

Sydney house market in line for record June listings, sales
This 37sqm studio apartment in Woolloomooloo, with views but no parking, sold at auction on Saturday for $440,500.
MICHAEL BLEBY AND JACOB GREBER

Sydney and Melbourne house prices are making a comeback, posting rises in June after falling in May.

Sydney home values rose 0.7 per cent last week for a monthly increase of 1.5 per cent, RP Data figures showed. In May they fell 1.1 per cent.

In Melbourne, weekly home values jumped 2.1 per cent, to a monthly change of 1.7 per cent, after falling 3.6 per cent last month.

Clearance rates also rose in both ­cities last week, putting Sydney on course to post a record month for home listings and sales in June.

“It’s a record strong month for Sydney in June, for listing and sales,” said Andrew Wilson, senior economist at Fairfax Media-owned Domain.

The gains in clearance rates and ­values will stoke debate about the need for higher official interest rates.

A so-called “shadow” Reserve Bank of Australia board – including policymakers Bob Gregory and Warwick McKibbin – has marginally raised the probable need for rate hikes in six months to 41 per cent.

They said there was a 76 per cent probability the central bank would keep the cash rate at a record-low 2.5 per cent for a 10th straight meeting – marking the most sustained run of monetary policy stimulus since the late 1990s.

“We’re seeing high levels of auction activity, particularly given the winter market,” he said.

One deal boosting Sydney clearance figures, which rose to 73.2 per cent from 70.1 per cent last week, was the ­$10-million sale by Lachlan and Sarah Murdoch of their three-storey home in Bronte.

First put on the market in 2009 with an asking price of $13.5 million, it sold on Friday night, ahead of a planned ­auction on Saturday.

In Woolloomoloo, a 37-square-­metre studio apartment with views but no parking sold on Saturday for $440,500, just $500 above the reserve price the vendor had set, but $20,000 more than what agent Mark Foy had advised the vendor it would go for.

“Owners don’t always listen to what we recommend,” Mr Foy said.

The apartment, bought by investors, rents for $430 per week.

RISKS
Strong asking prices can dampen the market, Dr Wilson said. “We typically see that vendors’ expectations are moving ahead of the underlying capacity from buyers,” he said. “That tends to pull down clearance rates once we get to the peak of the cycle.”

Ratings agency Moody’s last week warned that the residential property market posed a risk to financial and economic stability.

RBA shadow board chairman Timo Henckel from the Australian National University’s Centre for Applied Macro­economic Analysis said the strength of the market posed risks.

“Should these indicators continue to improve over the next few months, the call for tightening of monetary policy will likely grow louder,” he said.

In Sydney, values are 15.4 per cent above their level of a year ago.

MELBOURNE MORE SUBDUED
In Melbourne, the clearance rate ticked up 69.3 per cent from 69.1 per cent last week, RP Data figures showed. Melbourne’s “surprising” return to strength, which has been more ­subdued than in Sydney, is driven by the inner eastern, south-eastern and city markets, along with the outer-eastern markets, Dr Wilson said. He said the market in both cities was likely to ease.

The highest-selling house in Melbourne on the weekend was a six-bedroom, five-bathroom home in Kennedy Street, Glen Waverley, which sold for $3.2 million. A three-bedroom, two-bathroom house on Simpson Street, East Melbourne sold for $2.6 million.

Despite the apparent improvement, Melbourne was unlikely to post a record June, Dr Wilson said.

“We will see gradual moderation through the remainder of the year as the affordability energy that’s driven the market – lower interest rates, subdued prices – will work its way through.”

In Brisbane, Melbourne and Perth, house values all fell for the week, though for the month they remain positive in the Queensland capital (up 1.1 per cent) and in the WA capital (up 0.9 per cent). In Adelaide they are down 0.7 per cent for the month, RP Data figures show.

[greengiraffe]

CHRISTOPHER JOYE
Foreign buyers purchase up to 40pc of new Sydney, Melbourne homes
PUBLISHED: 4 HOURS 3 MINUTES AGO | UPDATE: 3 HOURS 54 MINUTES AGO

CHRISTOPHER JOYE

Foreign investors are likely key drivers of the Sydney and Melbourne housing booms, according to new UBS data, potentially buying up to 40 per cent of all newly constructed homes, and accounting for up to one in eight Australian sales overall.

Unprecedented levels of foreign buyer activity, combined with the ability of the $559 billion self-managed super fund sector to leverage its cash five times when making property purchases, could be two reasons why this Australian housing cycle is different to anything we’ve seen before.

The most powerful first-order influence is undeniably the cheapest mortgage rates in 40 years, with competitive variable loans being promoted for as little as 4.6 per cent. Australia’s major banks, which the Bank for International Settlements says are the most profitable in the world, are also in a position to cut borrowing rates further on the back of declining wholesale funding costs.

Analysis revealed by The Australian Financial Review shows that since the Reserve Bank of Australia chiselled its cash rate down to an all-time low of 2.5 per cent in August 2013, many lenders had been quietly shaving both variable and fixed borrowing costs in order to stimulate credit growth.

Understanding the extent of foreign buyer participation in Australia’s housing market is important because these individuals may be less constrained by RBA interest rate moves.


UBS’s new report on the subject comes as the frothy housing market, which is near record valuation peaks, bubbles back to life following a predictable seasonal winter slow-down that head-faked some commentators into claiming the boom was “over”.

RP Data-Rismark’s “daily” index, which is not seasonally-adjusted, reported a 2.6 per cent fall in home values across Australia’s top five capital cities between early May and early June 2014.

Yet since 11 June, national prices have rebounded by 1.7 per cent: in Sydney and Melbourne, home values have bounced back 2 per cent and 3.1 per cent, respectively. Auction clearance rates have also improved a month or two before the seasonally strong Spring period starts in earnest.

Last week the RBA sought to pour cold water over xenophobic foreign investor hyperbole and focus politicians’ attentions on the need to address structural supply-side issues, which were first highlighted by this author in a 2003 report commissioned by Prime Minister John Howard.

Zoning restrictions, sluggish land release and resistance from existing owners to new development all impede the elasticity of new housing supply to changes in demand (eg, lower interest rates), and can increase the volatility of housing cycles.

Notwithstanding the RBA’s concerted efforts to play-down foreign buyer activity, UBS has found that it has, in fact, increased “sharply” to be “quite material”.

Demand is concentrated in Australia’s two largest cities, Sydney and Melbourne, where house prices have jumped 15.4 per cent and 9.2 per cent over the 12 months to 29 June 2014, according to the latest RP Data-Rismark information.

UBS economists Scott Haslem and George Tharanou say three-quarters of all purchases approved by the government’s Foreign Investment Review Board in 2012-13 were for existing and new homes in Sydney and Melbourne. In the riskier newly constructed home space, foreign buyers were approved to purchase a stunning 39 per cent of all new properties in Sydney and Melbourne.

FOREIGN BUYER SHARE UP ‘SHARPLY’
UBS’s research implies that foreign buyers could be behind up to one in eight Australian property sales, which represents a significant increase over previous levels. Specifically, they find that the value of approved foreign purchases of Aussie housing spiked by 93 per cent over the 12 months to March 2014 compared to the prior comparable period.

Mr Haslem says “foreign investment now accounts for around 12.75 per cent of the value of total housing turnover, which is the highest share since 1991 and up sharply from a trend of an 8 per cent share previously, and a trough of just a 3.5 per cent share in 2009-10.”

While noting that there are various arguments suggesting that the foreign buyer data may significantly overstate or understate real market activity, Mr Haslem said “overall, our assessment is the actual foreign buyer share … has increased sharply to now be quite material”.

RBA analysis shows that foreign buyers are most concentrated in medium-to-high density developments in Sydney and Melbourne, which gels with anecdotal developer feedback implying very high levels of foreign participation in new housing projects.

China’s rising middle class is likely a significant source of offshore demand. Alongside New Zealand, China and India are now two of the three top source countries for immigrants into Australia.

And many companies facilitating the government’s “significant investor visa” program, which for a $5 million investment entitles a foreign investor to permanent residency status within four years, have been targeting wealthy Chinese.

[greengiraffe]

Demand for leases up but rent stays static
PUBLISHED: 4 HOURS 29 MINUTES AGO | UPDATE: 4 HOURS 29 MINUTES AGO

OFFICE LEASING
LARRY SCHLESINGER
There is stronger momentum in Sydney and Melbourne office leasing markets heading into the new financial year as incentives stabilise and activity rises.

However, rental growth is still some way off, say market participants. In Perth and Brisbane, rents could fall more due to a drop in demand from mining-related businesses with no expected easing in already high ­incentive levels.

“In the stronger markets – Sydney and Melbourne – we’re probably over the worst in terms of rising incentives and falling effective rents,” said Maria Lee from researchers BIS Shrapnel.

“That said, we don’t expect a bounce-back immediately. It could be another couple of years before we start to see a meaningful – more than just a couple of per cent – pick-up in effective rents as leasing incentives retreat.”

BIS Shrapnel recorded underlying national office demand – a leading indicator of future net absorption – of 370,000 square metres over the May quarter – well below the 10-year average of 660,000 square metres of underlying demand, but substantially better than the negative 380,000 square metres recorded 12 months ago.

“We’re quite worried about markets like Brisbane, Perth, Canberra and Adelaide – the outlook is for further increases in leasing incentives and falls in effective rents,” Ms Lee said.

GPT chief investment officer Carmel Hourigan said activity had picked up across its 20-asset, central business district portfolio with a higher proportion of enquiries leading to conversions.

“Conversions were a lot harder to get last year when there was a lot more tyre kicking. There’s a more serious attitude to doing deals now. Ms Hourigan said the largest chunk of enquiries were from the finance, property and business services - especially from legal firms - sectors seeking space from 250 to 750 square metres. “ A significant amount is for whole floor plates up to 1500 square metres,” she said. It would be nice to see effective rental growth next year, but we first need to see a pull back in incentives,” Ms Hourigan said.

MORE CONFIDENCE
Rob Dickins, Savills national head of office leasing, said there was better demand, more confidence and lower incentive levels in Melbourne and Sydney, (about 30 per cent) compared with Perth (above 35 per cent) and Brisbane (nearer 40 per cent). “I don’t expect any marked difference in effective rents in Sydney inside six to nine months. It could be up to 18 months before they start to rise,” he said.

Mr Dickins said the decision of the likes of Charter Hall to start building a $250 million project at 333 George Street, Sydney, without tenant pre-commitments showed people expect the market to rebound.

JLL’s head of capital markets research, Andrew Ballantyne, said ­Melbourne and Sydney enquiries were up but incentives remained “sticky”. He said there would be further corrections in Brisbane and Perth, which remain relatively weak leasing markets.

“We’re a little more optimistic in ­Sydney and Melbourne.

“The market’s fairly robust below 500 square metres but we are not seeing a lot of rental growth”

“There’s not much of a spread between market rents and renewals. It’s a sign that landlords are competing to retain tenants.”

Dexus head office and industrial Kevin George said lead indicators were pointing to improving office market conditions in the 2015 financial year

“These include increased business confidence in response to low interest rates, a strengthening in employment growth and a continued migration of tenants to CBD markets,” he said.

[greengiraffe]

Australia tops shopping list
PUBLISHED: 4 HOURS 29 MINUTES AGO | UPDATE: 4 HOURS 29 MINUTES AGO

INVESTMENT DEMAND
MERCEDES RUEHL
Australia is going to remain high on the shopping list of property investors in the new financial year, which is likely to push yields down and prices up.

Softer economic conditions will not deter offshore or local capital, industry experts said. “There is enough global capital which is almost certainly going to continue to drive investment demand because Australia is so high on many shopping lists and capital is coming from more and more destinations,” Tom Southern, the chief executive of CBRE Australia and New Zealand, said.

For core assets yields have come down materially but Mr Southern said he did not think they would be squeezed much more. “Already much of the really good stock is close to 2007 peak levels,” he said.

Stephen Conry, JLL’s Australian CEO, said one of the big questions was whether the coming year would be as active as the last. “It’s a big year to follow but there is insatiable demand for core assets,” he said. “The overall theme is that there is a lot of investment looking for a home and Australia has relatively high yields or returns compared with other overseas investment jurisdictions. Additionally, from a local perspective, concerns about the ­government are not like they were for the ­previous three years.”

One of the interesting dynamics of the market was divergence between asset pricing and relative weakness of ­occupational markets, Mr Southern said.

“In the last cycle the capital markets were strong at the same time that the occupation markets had more momentum being driven by a strong economy. Right now we have a much softer economy with virtually no white collar growth and at the same time we have emergent trends such as activity-based working.”

John Kenny, Colliers International CEO for Australia and New Zealand said the substantial appetite for hard assets despite tough retail conditions and high office vacancy rates was positive.

“If people see the value and believe in the investment they are getting in a market place where there is upside in terms of, for example, future vacancy being leased it is pretty exciting for the investor,” Mr Kenny said.“They can make it stack up even with that degree of vacancy.”

Mr Conry predicted more investors would look at lower quality shopping centres. “The yield spread between the best and worst of the sub-regional or neighbourhood shopping centres is the widest it has been for over a decade. It means you are going to have more people looking at less quality retail centres and adopting an active development play with it,” he said.

Mr Kenny said he expected yields to tighten, but added investors were aware of risks around overpaying.

“A lot of international buyers are outpricing local buyers which is normal and part of the cycle. They either compete or wait for pricing to cool.”

However Asian governments might be more diligent in monitoring offshore investment, Knight Frank managing director of commercial sales, Paul Henley, said. “Governments have started to wake up to the exit of capital to ­countries like Australia so I think they will be more concerned going forward which may slightly temper the appetite from offshore buyers. I don’t think it is going to have a negative impact on prices.”