Fujian eases 2nd Child Policy -ST 31.3.2014

[chialc88]

Fujian eases 2nd Child Policy
China's Fujian province has relaxed its family planning policy to allow couples to have a 2nd child if each parent is an only child.

The policy is effected on Saturday and may mean 56,000 newborns in the next 2 years.

Besides Fujian, Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, ChongQin, ZheJiang, JiangXi, AnHui, Sichuan, GuanDong and JiangSu have also changed their policies.

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A Life not Reflected is a Life not Worth Living.

[yawnyawn]

Time to have some exposure to baby-related stocks that have businesses in China?

Offhand i can only think of Hengan International(diapers), Biostime(milk powder). Will be happy to hear from other members here.

[CityFarmer]

Time to have some exposure to baby-related stocks that have businesses in China?

Offhand i can only think of Hengan International(diapers), Biostime(milk powder). Will be happy to hear from other members here.

I don't think the policy change will trigger a baby boom in China. There are more than just the policy that causing the low fertility rate in China nowaday

[yawnyawn]

Time to have some exposure to baby-related stocks that have businesses in China?

Offhand i can only think of Hengan International(diapers), Biostime(milk powder). Will be happy to hear from other members here.

I don't think the policy change will trigger a baby boom in China. There are more than just the policy that causing the low fertility rate in China nowaday

China has 16.4m newborn babies in 2013. Demographers are expecting an increase of 2m babies due to the 2nd child policy. I think an increase of 2m babies is quite a substantial amount.

Interesting enough, since 1950 till today, 1960 was the only year China had a decrease in their population. This was due to the Three Years of Great Chinese Famine or 三年大饥荒. From wikipedia, Drought, poor weather, and the policies of the Communist Party of China contributed to the famine, although the relative weights of the contributions are disputed due to the Great Leap Forward.

[specuvestor]

China will have a declining population sometime 2030s. It's just maths

If I am the Chinese government I will learn from Singapore and other developed world that it is time to loosen the population control substantially. Urbanisation is the best contraceptives. I would start to encourage 3 children in the city instead of just allowing 2.

Agree with Cityfarmer. If anything the spurt in babies will come from the rural areas. For the cities I think the next dragon year would have a bigger impact than this "rule relaxation"

[CityFarmer]

China will have a declining population sometime 2030s. It's just maths

If I am the Chinese government I will learn from Singapore and other developed world that it is time to loosen the population control substantially. Urbanisation is the best contraceptives. I would start to encourage 3 children in the city instead of just allowing 2.

Agree with Cityfarmer. If anything the spurt in babies will come from the rural areas. For the cities I think the next dragon year would have a bigger impact than this "rule relaxation"

A search via google, gives the following

Singapore birth rate increased by approx 10% in last dragon year, while Hong Kong was about 20%. The expected hike for 2nd child policy is 12%, base on the numbers given. (2m/16.4m = 12%)

[chialc88]

Speculator wrote:Urbanisation is the best contraceptive.

LKY says something similar.
Gives the girls/woman equal educations/career opportunities...

Love Compassion


A Life not Reflected is a Life not Worth Living.

[specuvestor]

Agree. It doesn't sound politically correct but the incentives structure definitely changed from rural to urban. It even changed for the men as the cost of living soars. Raising a 天生天养 child in the village is very different from raising one in the city