China PMI

[greengiraffe]

PUBLISHED AUGUST 22, 2014
China factory growth at 3-month low
There are concerns about increasing softness in economy

Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 50.3 from July's 18-month high of 51.7. - PHOTO: REUTERS

[BEIJING] Growth in China's vast factory sector slowed to a three-month low in August as output and new orders moderated, a preliminary private survey showed yesterday, reinforcing concerns about increasing softness in the economy.
The HSBC/Markit Flash China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 50.3 from July's 18-month high of 51.7, missing a Reuters forecast of 51.5.
It was the lowest reading since May, though the PMI stayed above the 50-point level that separates growth in activity from contraction for a third consecutive month.
"Today's data suggest that the economic recovery is still continuing but its momentum has slowed again," said Qu Hongbin, chief economist for China at HSBC. "We think more policy support is needed to help consolidate the recovery. Both monetary and fiscal policy should remain accommodative until there is a more sustained rebound in economic activity," Mr Qu said.

[greengiraffe]

Chinese manufacturing slows in August
SEPTEMBER 01, 2014 12:15PM

Mitchell Neems

Business Spectator Reporter
Melbourne
Activity in China's manufacturing sector continued to grow in August, but at a slower pace than in the previous month, according to official data.

Elswehere, the HSBC Chinese manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) for August, also missed expectations.

In August, the purchasing managers' index (PMI) printed at 51.1, down from a reading of 51.7 in July.

Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg had expected a read of 51.2.

A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction.

Released shortly after the official data, the HSBC PMI read was 50.2 in August, compared to a reading of 51.7 in July.

Hongbin Qu, HSBC's chief economist for China said revisions to reading were mixed.

While new export orders and output sub-indices were revised up, employment and input prices indices saw downward revisions.

“Although external demand showed improvement, domestic demand looked more subdued” he said.

"Overall, the manufacturing sector still expanded in August, but at a slower pace compared to previous months."

"We think the economy still faces considerable downside risks to growth in the second half of the year, which warrant further policy easing to ensure a steady growth recovery.”

[greengiraffe]

HSBC flash China PMI expands
FERGUS RYAN SEPTEMBER 23, 2014 12:15PM

Activity in China’s manufacturing sector beat expectations in September to hit a two-month high, according to a private survey.

The HSBC flash China manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to 50.5 in September, from 50.2 in August.

Analysts had expected the survey to print at 50 in September.

The reading above 50 on the survey points to expansion, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction.

HSBC chief China economist Hongbin Qu said the reading presented a mixed picture with new orders and new export orders registering some improvement.

However, the employment index slipped to a five-and-a-half year low of 46.9 as disinflationary pressure intensified.

Mr Qu said that overall the data points to a modest expansion, but that the property downturn remains the biggest downside risk to growth.

"We continue to expect more monetary easing from the PBoC in order to steady the recovery” he said.

"The preliminary PMI figure, also called the HSBC Flash China PMI, is based on 85 per cent to 90 per cent of total responses to HSBC's PMI survey each month, and is issued about one week before the final PMI reading.

[greengiraffe]

Pressure on Beijing as PMI stalls
AFP SEPTEMBER 30, 2014 2:07PM

A CLOSELY watched survey of China’s manufacturing activity came in below forecasts in September, HSBC said today, adding to pressure for Beijing to address slowing growth in the world’s second-largest economy.

The British bank’s final purchasing managers index (PMI), which tracks activity in China’s factories and workshops, came in at 50.2.

But while the figure is unchanged from August and is above the 50-point level that separates growth and contraction, it is below a preliminary reading of 50.5.

Beijing’s official PMI for August came in at 51.1, down from 51.7 in July. It will release its September figure on Wednesday.

Last week’s initial result had sparked some optimism that China’s economy, a key driver of global growth, may be showing signs of picking up following a string of weak data recently.

“Overall, the data in September suggest that manufacturing activity continues to expand at a slow pace,” Qu Hongbin, HSBC’s chief economist for China, said in a release announcing the figure.

“We think risks to growth are still on the downside and warrant more accommodative monetary as well as fiscal policies.”

China’s economy grew a higher-than-expected 7.5 per cent in the second quarter, up from 7.4 per cent in the previous three months, which was the worst since a similar 7.4 per cent expansion in July-September 2012.

Still, authorities since April have introduced a string of measures including targeted infrastructure spending, small business tax breaks and incentives to spur lending in rural areas and to small companies in a bid to boost growth.

But with indicators in August pointing to slowing industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment, economists have intensified calls for further stimulatory measures.

The PMI index is compiled by information services provider Markit and released by HSBC.

[greengiraffe]

HSBC Flash China manufacturing PMI lifts in October
FERGUS RYAN OCTOBER 23, 2014 1:15PM

Activity in China’s manufacturing sector has edged up to 50.4 in October, up from 50.2 in the final reading for September.
The reading above 50 on the survey points to expansion, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
HSBC chief China economist Hongbin Qu said both domestic and external demand showed some signs of slowing although both remained in expansion territory.
"Disinflationary pressures intensified, as both the input and output price indices declined further” he said, adding that both employment and inventory indices improved.
"While the manufacturing sector likely stabilized in October, the economy continues to show signs of insufficient effective demand” he said.
"This warrants further policy easing and we expect more easing measures on both the monetary as well as fiscal fronts in the months ahead.”
The preliminary PMI figure, also called the HSBC Flash China PMI, is based on 85 per cent to 90 per cent of total responses to HSBC's PMI survey each month, and is issued about one week before the final PMI reading.

[greengiraffe]

China's final HSBC PMI hits 3-month high
FERGUS RYAN & AAP NOVEMBER 03, 2014 1:30PM

Activity in China’s manufacturing sector has edged up to a three-month high of 50.4 in October, compared to 50.2 in September HSBC has confirmed.

The final reading for October remained unchanged from the flash reading of 50.4 released earlier.

A reading above 50 on the survey points to expansion, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction.

HSBC chief China economist Hongbin Qu said that new orders and new export orders sub-indices saw small downward revisions from their previous flash reading, but both "remained in expansion territory”.

Meanwhile, the employment and inventory sub-indices also saw small upward revisions.

"Overall, the manufacturing sector continued to stabilize in October, however the sequential momentum likely weakened” he said.

Mr Qu said that the economy still shows clear signs of insufficient effective demand.

"We still see uncertainties, given the property downturn as well as the slow pace of global recovery, and expect further monetary and fiscal easing measures in the months ahead.”

On Saturday, China's official purchasing managers index came in at 50.8 for October, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

The figure was lower than the 51.1 recorded in September and compared with the preliminary 50.4 figure in a private survey released by British bank HSBC on October 23.

The Chinese economy expanded 7.3 per cent in the third quarter, lower than the 7.5 per cent expansion in the previous three months and the slowest since the depths of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis, the government announced last month.

Beijing's 2014 growth target is about 7.5 per cent, the same as last year, though officials including Premier Li Keqiang have openly stated a slightly slower increase is tolerable as long as the job market remains resilient.

Chinese authorities since April have used a series of limited measures to underpin growth, including targeted cuts in reserve requirements - the amount of funds banks must put aside - and a 500 billion yuan ($88.50 billion) injection into the country's five biggest banks for re-lending.

A slowdown in China's huge property sector is also weighing on overall growth, with economists worrying that a potentially destructive bust in housing prices could dent economic hopes for the Asian powerhouse, a key driver of global and regional growth.

[greengiraffe]

China manufacturing at six-month low: HSBC
FERGUS RYAN BUSINESS SPECTATOR NOVEMBER 20, 2014 1:28PM

A worker assembles a car at a factory for Chinese automaker BAIC Motor in Beijing. Source: AP
ACTIVITY in China’s manufacturing sector has fallen to a six-month low, as new export order growth continues to ease in the world’s second largest economy, according to a private survey.

The HSBC China Manufacturing PMI has moderated to 50.0 in the flash reading for November, down from the October final reading of 50.4.

A reading above 50 on the survey points to expansion, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction.

HSBC chief China economist Hongbin Qu said new export order growth continued to ease and led to a below-50 reading for the output subindex for the first time since May.

“Disinflationary pressures remain strong and the labour market showed further signs of weakening. Weak price pressures and low capacity utilisation point to insufficient demand in the economy” he said.

“Furthermore, we still see uncertainties in the months ahead from the property market and on the export front.

“We think growth still faces significant downward pressures, and more monetary and fiscal easing measures should be deployed.”

The preliminary PMI figure, also called the HSBC Flash China PMI, is based on 85 per cent to 90 per cent of total responses to HSBC’s PMI survey each month, and is issued about one week before the final PMI reading.

Business Spectator

[greengiraffe]

China PMI declines for first time since May
DECEMBER 01, 2014 3:00PM

Activity in China’s manufacturing sector has declined for the first time since May, flat lining at 50.0 in November, down from 50.4 in October, HSBC has confirmed.

British bank HSBC’s preliminary PMI for November came in at the break-even point dividing expansion and contraction. It was lower than October’s 50.4 and the weakest reading since May’s 49.4.

HSBC chief China economist Hongbin Qu said domestic demand had expanded at a sluggish pace while new export order growth eased to a five-month low.

Mr Qu said today's data suggests the manufacturing sector has lost momentum and points to weaker economic activity in November. Disinflationary pressures remain strong while the labour market weakened further.

"The PBoC's rate cuts, delivered on the 21st November, will help to stabilise property and manufacturing investment in the coming months” he said.

"We continue to expect further monetary and fiscal easing measures to offset downside risks to growth.”

An official survey showed China's manufacturing growth skidded to an eight-month low in November, signalling further downwards pressure on the world’s second-largest economy.

China’s official Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) released by the National Bureau of Statistics came in at 50.3 last month, lower than the 50.8 recorded in October and the weakest since a similar 50.3 reading in March.

The index, which tracks activity in factories and workshops, is considered a key indicator of the health of China’s economy, a major driver of global growth. A figure above 50 signals expansion, while anything below indicates contraction.

China’s central bank last month unexpectedly cut benchmark interest rates for the first time in more than two years, as authorities seek to prop up flagging growth.

The cut came after a string of disappointing data showed the Chinese economy is struggling with not just stalling factory growth, but other problems including soft exports and a weakening property market.

China’s economy expanded 7.3 per cent in the July-September quarter, down from 7.5 per cent in the previous three months and the slowest since 2009 at the height of the global financial crisis.

The People’s Bank of China on November 21 lowered its one-year rate for deposits by 25 basis points to 2.75 per cent and its one-year lending rate by 40 basis points to 5.6 per cent, a statement said.

China’s housing prices fell on a monthly basis for the seventh straight month in November, a survey showed Sunday, as the country’s property market weighs on growth.

The average price of a new home in China’s 100 major cities was 10,589 yuan ($US1720) per square metre in November, down 0.38 per cent from October, the independent China Index Academy said in a statement.

The fall was a slight improvement from the 0.40 per cent month-on-month drop in October, previous figures showed.

[greengiraffe]

Fears as China’s manufacturing output falls
THE AUSTRALIAN DECEMBER 17, 2014 12:00AM

Scott Murdoch

China Correspondent
Beijing
Concern as China’s output contractsThe manufacturing sector, a major driver of the national Chinese economy, has been growing over the past six months after a soft performance last year. Source: AFP < PrevNext >
••
CHINA’S national manufacturing output has surprisingly dropped to a seven-month low, adding to fears the world’s second-largest economy is moderating at a faster rate than expected.

The HSBC flash Purchasing Manager’s Index (PMI), which measures output from state-owned and private-sector manufacturers, yesterday showed a result of 49.5, down from 50 just one month earlier.

An index reading below 50 shows that the manufacturing sector is in contraction. It was the worst result since May.

The lower-than-expected result added to the negative tone across most of the main Asian markets, which prompted the S&P/ASX 200 to close down 33.8 points at 5152.3. The All Ordinaries benchmark index lost 33.6 points to ­finish at 5131 while the dollar last night was trading at US82.3c.

HSBC chief China economist Qu Hongbin said that, while the manufacturing sector was down, prices for goods in the month were also weaker.

The manufacturing sector, a major driver of the Chinese economy, has been growing over the past six months after a soft performance last year.

The PMI index, which is considered a better reading than the Chinese government survey, found that manufacturing employment is starting to decrease in line with the fall in output.

However, the monthly survey did find the rate of new export orders was growing, in a positive sign that output may pick up in the next few months.

“The domestic demand slowed considerably and fell below 50 for the first time since April,” Mr Qu said. “Prices indices also fell sharply. The manufacturing slowdown continues in December and points to a weak ending for 2014.

“The rising disinflationary pressures which fundamentally reflect weak demands warrants further monetary easing in the coming months.”

The People’s Bank of China cut interest rates late last month for the first time in more than two years in a bid to stoke activity in the Chinese economy. Economists are now forecasting the central bank could be forced to move again as the prospect intensifies that the economy could miss its official growth rate target for the first time in more than a decade.

The Chinese government has set a 7.5 per cent target in 2014, but the PBOC this week said it believed the economic growth rate would be about 7.4 per cent.

Nomura economist Wendy Chen said the risk of deflation ­occurring in China meant that the PBOC could cut interest rates in the first six months of next year and reduce the reserve requirement ratio, the level of capital banks must hold, in each quarter of 2015.

The inflation result in November of just 1.4 per cent, year-on-year, was the lowest rate in five years.

“We expect inflation to remain below 2 per cent in 2015, which may raise concerns of deflation and trigger more policy easing,” Ms Chen said.

The Chinese government last week concluded its Central Economic Work Conference in Beijing where the official growth target for 2015 would have been set.

The target will be published in March during the National ­People’s Congress in March and most economists believe it will be 7 per cent.

[BlueKelah]

China PMI shows factory activity shrank again in February

SHANGHAI (Reuters) - Hours after China's central bank cut interest rates to battle slowing growth and rising deflationary risk, an official survey showed on Sunday that activity in China's factory sector contracted for a second straight month in February.

The official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) inched up to 49.9 in February from January's 49.8, a whisker below the 50-point level separating growth from contraction on a monthly basis, but nevertheless above more pessimistic analyst forecasts for a 49.7 reading.


------------------------------------------------------------------

Rate cuts helping but not much.